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Climate change poses a threat to biodiversity, and it is unclear whether species can adapt to or tolerate new conditions, or migrate to areas with suitable habitats. Reconstructions of range shifts that occurred in response to environmental changes since the last glacial maximum (LGM) from species distribution models (SDMs) can provide useful data to inform conservation efforts. However, different SDM algorithms and climate reconstructions often produce contrasting patterns, and validation methods typically focus on accuracy in recreating current distributions, limiting their relevance for assessing predictions to the past or future. We modeled historically suitable habitat for the threatened North American tree green ashFraxinus pennsylvanicausing 24 SDMs built using two climate models, three calibration regions, and four modeling algorithms. We evaluated the SDMs using contemporary data with spatial block cross‐validation and compared the relative support for alternative models using a novel integrative method based on coupled demographic‐genetic simulations. We simulated genomic datasets using habitat suitability of each of the 24 SDMs in a spatially‐explicit model. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) was then used to evaluate the support for alternative SDMs through comparisons to an empirical population genomic dataset. Models had very similar performance when assessed with contemporary occurrences using spatial cross‐validation, but ABC model selection analyses consistently supported SDMs based on the CCSM climate model, an intermediate calibration extent, and the generalized linear modeling algorithm. Finally, we projected the future range of green ash under four climate change scenarios. Future projections using the SDMs selected via ABC suggest only minor shifts in suitable habitat for this species, while some of those that were rejected predicted dramatic changes. Our results highlight the different inferences that may result from the application of alternative distribution modeling algorithms and provide a novel approach for selecting among a set of competing SDMs with independent data.
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Phylogeographic model selection using convolutional neural networks
Abstract The discipline of phylogeography has evolved rapidly in terms of the analytical toolkit used to analyse large genomic data sets. Despite substantial advances, analytical tools that could potentially address the challenges posed by increased model complexity have not been fully explored. For example, deep learning techniques are underutilized for phylogeographic model selection. In non‐model organisms, the lack of information about their ecology and evolution can lead to uncertainty about which demographic models are appropriate. Here, we assess the utility of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for assessing demographic models in South American lizards in the genusNorops. Three demographic scenarios (constant, expansion, and bottleneck) were considered for each of four inferred population‐level lineages, and we found that the overall model accuracy was higher than 98% for all lineages. We then evaluated a set of 26 models that accounted for evolutionary relationships, gene flow, and changes in effective population size among the four lineages, identifying a single model with an estimated overall accuracy of 87% when using CNNs. The inferred demography of the lizard system suggests that gene flow between non‐sister populations and changes in effective population sizes through time, probably in response to Pleistocene climatic oscillations, have shaped genetic diversity in this system. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) was applied to provide a comparison to the performance of CNNs. ABC was unable to identify a single model among the larger set of 26 models in the subsequent analysis. Our results demonstrate that CNNs can be easily and usefully incorporated into the phylogeographer's toolkit.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1831319
- PAR ID:
- 10566027
- Editor(s):
- Fountain-Jones, Nicholas M; Smith, Megan L; Austerlitz, Frédéric
- Publisher / Repository:
- Molecular Ecology Resources
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Molecular Ecology Resources
- Volume:
- 21
- Issue:
- 8
- ISSN:
- 1755-098X
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 2661 to 2675
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- convolutional neural networks, deep learning, machine learning, Norops spp., phylogeogeography
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1111/1755-0998.13427
