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Abstract Thousands of people are reported lost in the wilderness in the United States every year and locating these missing individuals as rapidly as possible depends on coordinated search and rescue (SAR) operations. As time passes, the search area grows, survival rate decreases, and searchers are faced with an increasingly daunting task of searching large areas in a short amount of time. To optimize the search process, mathematical models of lost person behavior with respect to landscape can be used in conjunction with current SAR practices. In this paper, we introduce an agent-based model of lost person behavior which allows agents to move on known landscapes with behavior defined as independent realizations of a random variable. The behavior random variable selects from a distribution of six known lost person reorientation strategies to simulate the agent’s trajectory. We systematically simulate a range of possible behavior distributions and find a best-fit behavioral profile for a hiker with the International Search and Rescue Incident Database. We validate these results with a leave-one-out analysis. This work represents the first time-discrete model of lost person dynamics validated with data from real SAR incidents and has the potential to improve current methods for wilderness SAR.
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The Future of Wilderness Research: A 10-Year Wilderness Science Strategic Plan for the Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute
The Earth is changing faster than at any time in recorded history. Globally, we are facing largescale losses in biodiversity and associated ecosystem function, changes in disturbance regimes, and widespread human migration and cultural loss (e.g., IPCC 2021). In the United States, we face many related challenges, including intensifying wildfire and climatic events, species and habitat loss, increasing demand for environmental and social justice, and rapid social change such as urbanization. In 1964, the Wilderness Act codified formal protections for lands we know today as designated wilderness collectively, the National Wilderness Preservation System (NWPS), the most environmentally protected public lands in the United States. Wilderness is not only part of our national story. It also provides myriad benefits: from spiritual renewal and recreation opportunities to clean air and water, habitat for plants and wildlife, food and economic security, and opportunities to conduct scientific studies. Consequently, wilderness is important to many people as part of our collective past, present, and future. Wilderness can mean many different things to different people and expectations for uses, such as recreation and subsistence activities, vary depending on differences in cultural background, belief systems, and education, to name a few. Long-term protection required by law, combined with an increasing rate of climate change and a growing understanding of how Indigenous peoples cared for the lands now designated as wilderness, results in a complex wilderness stewardship landscape.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2224776
- PAR ID:
- 10571323
- Publisher / Repository:
- USDA
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- International journal of wilderness
- ISSN:
- 2832-0107
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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