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Abstract An intermediate-complexity general circulation model is used to disentangle changes in the large-scale zonally asymmetric circulation in response to rising greenhouse gases. Particular focus is on the anomalous ridge that develops over the Mediterranean in future climate projections, directly associated with reduced winter precipitation over the region. Specifically, we examine changes in stationary waves forced by land–sea contrast, horizontal oceanic heat fluxes, and orography, following a quadrupling of CO2. The stationary waves associated with these three drivers depend strongly on the climatological state, precluding a linear decomposition of their responses to warming. However, our modeling framework still allows a process-oriented approach to quantify the key drivers and mechanisms of the response. A combination of three similarly important mechanisms is found responsible for the rain-suppressing ridge. The first is part of a global response to warming: elongation of intermediate-scale stationary waves in response to strengthened subtropical winds aloft, previously found to account for hydroclimatic changes in southwestern North America. The second is regional: a downstream response to the North Atlantic warming hole and enhanced warming of the Eurasian landmass relative to the Atlantic Ocean. A third contribution to the Mediterranean Ridge is a phase shift of planetary wave 3, primarily associated with an altered circulation response to orographic forcing. Reduced land–sea contrast in the Mediterranean basin, previously thought to contribute substantially to Mediterranean drying, has a negligible effect in our integrations. This work offers a mechanistic analysis of the large-scale processes governing projected Mediterranean drying, lending increased understanding and credibility to climate model projections.
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Climate Conundrum: A Wet or Dry European and Northern African Climate During the Middle Miocene
Abstract End of 21st‐century hydroclimate projections suggest an expansion of subtropical dry zones, with Mediterranean and Sahel regions becoming much drier. However, paleobotanical assemblage evidence from the middle Miocene (17‐12 Ma), suggests both regions were instead humid environments. Here we show that by modifying regional sea surface temperatures (SST) in an Earth System Model (CESM1.2) simulation of the middle Miocene, the increased ocean evaporation and integrated water vapor flux overrides any drying effects associated with warming‐induced land‐surface evaporation driven by atmospheric CO2concentrations. These modifications markedly reduce the bias in the model‐data comparison for this period. A vegetation model (BIOME4) forced with simulated climatologies predicts both regions were dominated by mixed forest, which is largely consistent with the paleobotanical record. This study unveils the potential for wetter subtropical Mediterranean climates associated with warming, presenting an alternative scenario from future drying projections with localized SST warming governing regional climate change.
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- PAR ID:
- 10587545
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 51
- Issue:
- 21
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109499
