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Abstract Future changes in the Beaufort Gyre liquid freshwater content (LFWC) are important for the local and global climate. However, traditional climate models cannot resolve oceanic and atmospheric eddies that are critical to the LFWC variations. In this study, we investigate physical processes controlling Beaufort Gyre LFWC changes in an eddy‐resolving simulation. The model simulation largely reproduces the observed LFWC changes, and projects a long‐term LFWC increase with an intensification of its decadal variability during the 21st century. Freshwater budget analysis suggests that future LFWC changes are strongly influenced by sea ice melt. The conversion from solid to liquid phase provides more liquid freshwater into the ocean. Meanwhile, sea ice loss enhances the efficiency of air‐sea momentum transfer, leading to increased wind‐driven freshwater convergence and its variability. The decadal variation of the LFWC will regulate Arctic freshwater exports and coincident with an O (0.5 Sv) change in the meridional overturning circulation.
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Can the Marked Arctic Ocean Freshwater Content Increases of the Last Two Decades Be Explained Within Observational Uncertainty?
Abstract The freshwater content of the Arctic Ocean has increased dramatically in the last two decades, particularly in the Beaufort Gyre. However, quantifying the sources of this change is an observational challenge and has historically been limited by methodological differences across studies. Here we derive observation‐based freshwater budgets from volume and mass budgets for the Arctic Ocean and the Beaufort Gyre from 2003 to 2020. Our budgets include all sources and sinks (river runoff, precipitation minus evaporation, land ice melt, sea ice export, sea ice melt, and ocean fluxes) as well as volume and mass storage terms measured by satellite. We find that Arctic freshwater changes are dominated by changes in the Beaufort Gyre, and we reconcile this with previous studies that argue for freshwater compensation between the Beaufort Gyre and the rest of the Arctic. We use inverse methods to close the volume and mass budgets within observational uncertainty and link the observed Arctic freshwater changes to the sources and sinks. Our budget analysis demonstrates that small changes to the ocean fluxes (smaller than we can measure) can account for all freshwater storage changes in the Arctic, highlighting the need for more careful accounting and detailed ocean observations in this rapidly changing environment.
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- PAR ID:
- 10588709
- Publisher / Repository:
- AGU
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
- Volume:
- 130
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 2169-9275
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC021061
