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Abstract Climate‐driven ecosystem shifts occur through turnover in the foundation species which structure the landscape. Therefore, to predict the fate of areas undergoing climate‐driven ecosystem shifts, one approach is to characterize ecological and evolutionary responses of foundation species along dynamic environmental gradients. One such gradient is the ecotone between tidal marshes and maritime forests in coastal areas of the US Mid‐Atlantic region where accelerated sea‐level rise and coastal storms of increased frequency and intensity are driving forest dieback and inland marsh migration. Mid‐Atlantic tidal marshes are structured by marsh grasses which act as foundation species, and these grasses exhibit trait variation across their distribution from established marsh interior to their inland migration front. We conducted a reciprocal transplant experiment withSpartina patens, a dominant high marsh grass and foundation species, between established populations in the high marsh and range edge populations in the forest understory at three Mid‐Atlantic sites. We monitored environmental conditions in marsh and forest understory habitats, measured plant traits (above‐ and belowground biomass, specific leaf area, leaf N and C concentrations) in transplanted and reference non‐transplanted individuals, and used microsatellite markers to determine the genetic identity of transplants to quantify clonality between habitats and sites. Individuals transplanted into the forest understory exhibited a plastic shift in resource allocation to aboveground structures associated with light acquisition, with shifts in transplants making them more morphologically similar to reference individuals sampled from the forest habitat. Clonal diversity and genetic distance among transplants were relatively high at two of three sites, but individuals at all sites exhibited trans‐habitat plasticity regardless of clonal diversity or a lack thereof. Individuals grown in the forest understory showed lower vegetative and reproductive fitness. Nevertheless, the trait plasticity exhibited by this species allowed individuals from the forest that were transplanted into the marsh to recoup significant biomass in only a single growing season. We predict high plasticity will facilitate the persistence of colonizingS. patensindividuals under suboptimal forest shade conditions until forest dieback increases light availability, ultimately promoting continued inland migration of this foundation species under sea‐level rise.
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Constraining Light‐Driven Plasticity in Leaf Traits With Observations Improves the Prediction of Tropical Forest Demography, Structure, and Biomass Dynamics
Abstract Predicting tropical tree demography is a key challenge in understanding the future dynamics of tropical forests. Although demographic processes are known to be regulated by leaf trait diversity, only the effect of inter‐specific trait variation has been evaluated, and it remains unclear as to what degree the intra‐specific trait plasticity across light gradients (hereafter light plasticity) regulates tree demography, and how this will further shape long‐term community and ecosystem dynamics. By combining in situ trait measurements and forest census data with a terrestrial biosphere model, we evaluated the impact of observation‐constrained light plasticity on demography, forest structure, and biomass dynamics in a Panamanian tropical moist forest. Modeled leaf physiological traits vary across and within plant functional types (PFT), which represent the inter‐specific trait variation and the intra‐specific light plasticity, respectively. The simulation using three non‐plastic PFTs underestimated 20‐year average understory growth rates by 41%, leading to a biased forest size structure and leaf area profile, and a 44% underestimate in long‐term biomass. The simulation using three plastic PFTs generated accurate understory growth rates, resulting in a realistic forest structure and a smaller biomass underestimate of 15%. Expanding simulated trait diversity using 18 nonplastic PFTs similarly improved the prediction of demography and biomass. However, only the plasticity‐enabled model predicted realistic long‐term PFT composition and within‐canopy trait profiles. Our results highlight the distinct role of light plasticity in regulating forest dynamics that cannot be replaced by inter‐specific trait diversity. Accurately representing light plasticity is thus crucial for trait‐based prediction of tropical forest dynamics.
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- PAR ID:
- 10595677
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
- Volume:
- 130
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 2169-8953
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JG008814
