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Abstract Microbial communities experience environmental fluctuations across timescales from rapid changes in moisture, temperature, or light levels to long-term seasonal or climactic variations. Understanding how microbial populations respond to these changes is critical for predicting the impact of perturbations, interventions, and climate change on communities. Since communities typically harbor tens to hundreds of distinct taxa, the response of microbial abundances to perturbations is potentially complex. However, while taxonomic diversity is high, in many communities taxa can be grouped into functional guilds of strains with similar metabolic traits. These guilds effectively reduce the complexity of the system by providing a physiologically motivated coarse-graining. Here, using a combination of simulations, theory, and experiments, we show that the response of guilds to nutrient fluctuations depends on the timescale of those fluctuations. Rapid changes in nutrient levels drive cohesive, positively correlated abundance dynamics within guilds. For slower timescales of environmental variation, members within a guild begin to compete due to similar resource preferences, driving negative correlations in abundances between members of the same guild. Our results provide a route to understanding the relationship between functional guilds and community response to changing environments, as well as an experimental approach to discovering functional guilds via designed nutrient perturbations to communities.
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This content will become publicly available on January 12, 2026
Inferring resource competition in microbial communities from time series
The competition for resources is a defining feature of microbial communities. In many contexts, from soils to host-associated communities, highly diverse microbes are organized into metabolic groups or guilds with similar resource preferences. The resource preferences of individual taxa that give rise to these guilds are critical for understanding fluxes of resources through the community and the structure of diversity in the system. However, inferring the metabolic capabilities of individual taxa, and their competition with other taxa, within a community is challenging and unresolved. Here we address this gap in knowledge by leveraging dynamic measurements of abundances in communities. We show that simple correlations are often misleading in predicting resource competition. We show that spectral methods such as the cross-power spectral density (CPSD) and coherence that account for time-delayed effects are superior metrics for inferring the structure of resource competition in communities. We first demonstrate this fact on synthetic data generated from consumer-resource models with time-dependent resource availability, where taxa are organized into groups or guilds with similar resource preferences. By applying spectral methods to oceanic plankton time-series data, we demonstrate that these methods detect interaction structures among species with similar genomic sequences. Our results indicate that analyzing temporal data across multiple timescales can reveal the underlying structure of resource competition within communities.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2235451
- PAR ID:
- 10609200
- Publisher / Repository:
- bioRxiv
- Date Published:
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Institution:
- bioRxiv
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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