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Abstract Thwaites Glacier (TG) plays an important role in future sea-level rise (SLR) contribution from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Recent observations show that TG is losing mass, and its grounding zone is retreating. Previous modeling has produced a wide range of results concerning whether, when, and how rapidly further retreat will occur under continued warming. These differences arise at least in part from ill-constrained processes, including friction from the bed, and future atmosphere and ocean forcing affecting ice-shelf and grounding-zone buttressing. Here, we apply the Ice Sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) with a range of specifications of basal sliding behavior in response to varying ocean forcing. We find that basin-wide bed character strongly affects TG's response to sub-shelf melt by modulating how changes in driving stress are balanced by the bed as the glacier responds to external forcing. Resulting differences in dynamic thinning patterns alter modeled grounding-line retreat across Thwaites' catchment, affecting both modeled rates and magnitudes of SLR contribution from this critical sector of the ice sheet. Bed character introduces large uncertainties in projections of TG under equal external forcing, pointing to this as a crucial constraint needed in predictive models of West Antarctica.
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West Antarctic ice retreat and paleoceanography in the Amundsen Sea in the warm early Pliocene
Abstract Mass loss from polar ice sheets is poorly constrained in estimates of future global sea-level rise. Today, the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing mass at an accelerating rate, most notably in the Thwaites and Pine Island glacier drainage basins. Early Pliocene surface temperatures were about 4 °C warmer than preindustrial and maximum sea level stood ~20 m above present. Using data from a sediment archive on the Amundsen Sea continental rise, we investigate the impact of prolonged Pliocene ocean warmth on the ice-sheet−ocean system. We show that, in contrast to today, during peak ocean warming ~4.6 − 4.5 Ma, terrigenous muds accumulated rapidly under a weak bottom current regime after spill-over of dense shelf water with high suspended load down to the rise. From sediment provenance data we infer major retreat of the Thwaites Glacier system at ~4.4 Ma several hundreds of km inland from its present grounding line position, highlighting the potential for major Earth System changes under prolonged future warming.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2114839
- PAR ID:
- 10611800
- Publisher / Repository:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Volume:
- 16
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2041-1723
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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