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1. Data and code for: Combining eddy covariance towers, field measurements, and the MEMS 2 ecosystem model improves confidence in the climate impacts of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage

   https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.qrfj6q5s5  

   Falvo, Grant; Zhang, Yao; Abraha, Michael; Mosier, Samantha; Su, Yahn-Jauh; Lei, Cheyenne; Chen, Jiquan; Cotrufo, Francesca; Robertson, Philip (February 2025, Dryad)

   Carbon dioxide removal technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) are required if the effects of climate change are to be reversed over the next century. However, BECCS demands extensive land use change that may create positive or negative radiative forcing impacts upstream of the BECCS facility through changes to in situ greenhouse gas fluxes and land surface albedo. When quantifying these upstream climate impacts, even at a single site, different methods can give different estimates. Here we show how three common methods for estimating the net ecosystem carbon balance of bioenergy crops established on former grassland or former cropland can differ in their central estimates and uncertainty. We place these net ecosystem carbon balance forcings in the context of associated radiative forcings from changes to soil N2O and CH4 fluxes, land surface albedo, embedded fossil fuel use, and geologically stored carbon. Results from long term eddy covariance measurements, a soil and plant carbon inventory, and the MEMS 2 process-based ecosystem model all agree that establishing perennials such as switchgrass or mixed prairie on former cropland resulted in net negative radiative forcing (i.e., global cooling) of -26.5 to -39.6 fW m-2 over 100 years. Establishing these perennials on former grassland sites had similar climate mitigation impacts of -19.3 to -42.5 fW m-2. However, the largest climate mitigation came from establishing corn for BECCS on former cropland or grassland, with radiative forcings from -38.4 to -50.5 fW m-2, due to its higher plant productivity and therefore more geologically stored carbon. Our results highlight the strengths and limitations of each method for quantifying the field scale climate impacts of BECCS and show that utilizing multiple methods can increase confidence in the final radiative forcing estimates. 

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2. Climate cooling benefits of cellulosic bioenergy crops from elevated albedo

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.13098  

   Lei, Cheyenne; Chen, Jiquan; Robertson, G. Philip (November 2023, GCB Bioenergy)

   Abstract Changes in land surface albedo can alter ecosystem energy balance and potentially influence climate. We examined the albedo of six bioenergy cropping systems in southwest Michigan USA: monocultures of energy sorghum (Sorghum bicolor), switchgrass (Panicum virgatumL.), and giant miscanthus (Miscanthus×giganteus), and polycultures of native grasses, early successional vegetation, and restored prairie. Direct field measurements of surface albedo (α_s) from May 2018 through December 2020 at half‐hourly intervals in each system quantified the magnitudes and seasonal differences in albedo (∆_α) and albedo‐induced radiative forcing (RF_∆α). We used a nearby forest as a historical native cover type to estimate reference albedo and RF_∆αchange upon original land use conversion, and a continuous no‐till maize (Zea mays L.) system as a contemporary reference to estimate change upon conversion from annual row crops. Annually,α_sdiffered significantly (p < 0.05) among crops in the order: early successional (0.288 ± 0.012SE) >> miscanthus (0.271 ± 0.009) ≈ energy sorghum (0.270 ± 0.010) ≥ switchgrass (0.265 ± 0.009) ≈ restored prairie (0.264 ± 0.012) > native grasses (0.259 ± 0.010) > maize (0.247 ± 0.010). Reference forest had the lowest annualα_s(0.134 ± 0.003). Albedo differences among crops during the growing season were also statistically significant, with growing seasonα_sin perennial crops and energy sorghum on average ~20% higher (0.206 ± 0.003) than in no‐till maize (0.184 ± 0.002). Average non‐growing season (NGS)α_s(0.370 ± 0.020) was much higher than growing seasonα_s(0.203 ± 0.003) but these NGS differences were not significant. Overall, the original conversion of reference forest and maize landscapes to perennials provided a cooling effect on the local climate (RF_αMAIZE: −3.83 ± 1.00 W m⁻²; RF_αFOREST: −16.75 ± 3.01 W m⁻²). Significant differences among cropping systems suggest an additional management intervention for maximizing the positive climate benefit of bioenergy crops, with cellulosic crops on average ~9.1% more reflective than no‐till maize, which itself was about twice as reflective as the reference forest. 

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3. Albedo-Induced Global Warming Impact at Multiple Temporal Scales within an Upper Midwest USA Watershed

   https://doi.org/10.3390/land11020283  

   Sciusco, Pietro; Chen, Jiquan; Giannico, Vincenzo; Abraha, Michael; Lei, Cheyenne; Shirkey, Gabriela; Yuan, Jing; Robertson, G. Philip (February 2022, Land)

   Land surface albedo is a significant regulator of climate. Changes in land use worldwide have greatly reshaped landscapes in the recent decades. Deforestation, agricultural development, and urban expansion alter land surface albedo, each with unique influences on shortwave radiative forcing and global warming impact (GWI). Here, we characterize the changes in landscape albedo-induced GWI (GWIΔα) at multiple temporal scales, with a special focus on the seasonal and monthly GWIΔα over a 19-year period for different land cover types in five ecoregions within a watershed in the upper Midwest USA. The results show that land cover changes from the original forest exhibited a net cooling effect, with contributions of annual GWIΔα varying by cover type and ecoregion. Seasonal and monthly variations of the GWIΔα showed unique trends over the 19-year period and contributed differently to the total GWIΔα. Cropland contributed most to cooling the local climate, with seasonal and monthly offsets of 18% and 83%, respectively, of the annual greenhouse gas emissions of maize fields in the same area. Urban areas exhibited both cooling and warming effects. Cropland and urban areas showed significantly different seasonal GWIΔα at some ecoregions. The landscape composition of the five ecoregions could cause different net landscape GWIΔα. 

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4. Data and code for: Nature-based climate solutions can help mitigate the radiative forcing that follows deforestation

   https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.wwpzgmswn  

   Falvo, Grant; Robertson, G Philip (June 2025, Dryad)

   Widespread expansion of agriculture and forestry has altered the surface of the Earth, the composition of the atmosphere, and as a result, the climate. Here we quantify the radiative forcing caused by the deforestation of an ecoregion of the U.S. Upper Midwest and the adoption of eight nature-based climate solutions. We combined forest inventory data with over three decades of remote sensing and in situ data from a replicated land use change experiment. Deforestation of the region caused net global warming (1626 ± 44 µW m-2), mainly from the 76 % reduction of ecosystem carbon stocks, but also from the 84 % reduction of the soil methane sink and the 115 % increase in soil nitrous oxide emissions. The associated albedo increase offset 24 % of the greenhouse gas induced warming. For the adoption of nature-based climate solutions, we found that conservation agriculture provided a modest -39 to -76 ± 31 µW m-2 of climate mitigation, short/medium length forestry rotations provided more at -296 to -881 ± 44 µW m-2, and natural forest regeneration provided the most at -1555 ± 44 µW m-2. As the impacts of climate change on nature and society intensify, consideration should be given to the climate mitigation, habitat, and ecosystem services that nature-based climate solutions can provide. 

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5. Emerging climate impact on carbon sinks in a consolidated carbon budget

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09802-5  

   Friedlingstein, Pierre; Le_Quéré, Corinne; O’Sullivan, Michael; Hauck, Judith; Landschützer, Peter; Luijkx, Ingrid T; Li, Hongmei; van_der_Woude, Auke; Schwingshackl, Clemens; Pongratz, Julia; et al (January 2026, Nature)

   Abstract Despite the adoption of the Paris Agreement 10 years ago, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from burning fossil fuels continue to increase, pushing atmospheric CO₂levels to 423 ppm in 2024 and driving human-induced warming to 1.36 °C, within years of breaching the 1.5 °C limit^1,2. Accurate reporting of anthropogenic and natural CO₂sources and sinks is a prerequisite to tracking the effectiveness of climate policy and detecting carbon-sink responses to climate change. Yet notable mismatches between reported emissions and sinks have so far prevented confident interpretation of their trends and drivers¹. Here we present and integrate recent advances in observations and process understanding to address some long-standing issues in global carbon budget estimates. We show that the magnitude of the natural land sink is substantially smaller than previously estimated, whereas net emissions from anthropogenic land-use change are revised upwards¹. The ocean sink is 15% larger than the land sink, consistent with recent evidence from oceanic and atmospheric observations^3,4. Climate change reduces the efficiency of the sinks, particularly on land, contributing 8.3 ± 1.4 ppm to the atmospheric CO₂increase since 1960. The combined effects of climate change and deforestation have turned Southeast Asian and large parts of South American tropical forests from CO₂sinks to sources. This underscores the need to halt deforestation and limit warming to prevent further loss of carbon stored on land. Improved confidence in assessments of CO₂sources and sinks is fundamental for effective climate policy. 

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