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Northern peatlands have accumulated large stocks of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), but their spatial distribution and vulnerability to climate warming remain uncertain. Here, we used machine-learning techniques with extensive peat core data ( n > 7,000) to create observation-based maps of northern peatland C and N stocks, and to assess their response to warming and permafrost thaw. We estimate that northern peatlands cover 3.7 ± 0.5 million km 2 and store 415 ± 150 Pg C and 10 ± 7 Pg N. Nearly half of the peatland area and peat C stocks are permafrost affected. Using modeled global warming stabilization scenarios (from 1.5 to 6 °C warming), we project that the current sink of atmospheric C (0.10 ± 0.02 Pg C⋅y −1 ) in northern peatlands will shift to a C source as 0.8 to 1.9 million km 2 of permafrost-affected peatlands thaw. The projected thaw would cause peatland greenhouse gas emissions equal to ∼1% of anthropogenic radiative forcing in this century. The main forcing is from methane emissions (0.7 to 3 Pg cumulative CH 4 -C) with smaller carbon dioxide forcing (1 to 2 Pg CO 2 -C) and minor nitrous oxide losses. We project that initial CO 2 -C losses reverse after ∼200 y, as warming strengthens peatland C-sinks. We project substantial, but highly uncertain, additional losses of peat into fluvial systems of 10 to 30 Pg C and 0.4 to 0.9 Pg N. The combined gaseous and fluvial peatland C loss estimated here adds 30 to 50% onto previous estimates of permafrost-thaw C losses, with southern permafrost regions being the most vulnerable.
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This content will become publicly available on April 15, 2026
Mapping Peatland Distribution and Quantifying Peatland Below‐Ground Carbon Stocks in Colombia's Eastern Lowlands
The extent and distribution of tropical peatlands, and their importance as a vulnerable carbon (C) store, remain poorly quantified. Although large peatland complexes in Peru, the Congo basin, and Southeast Asia have been mapped in detail, information on many other tropical areas is uncertain. In the Eastern Colombian lowlands, peatland area estimates range from 700 km2 to nearly 60,000 km2, leading to highly uncertain C stocks. Using new field data, high‐resolution Earth observation (EO), and a random forest approach, we mapped peatlands across Colombian territory East of the Andes below 400 m elevation. We estimated peatland extent using two approaches: a conservative method focused on medium‐to‐high peat probability areas and a more inclusive one accounting for large low‐probability areas. Multiplying these extents by below‐ground carbon density yields a conservative estimate of 0.95 (0.6–1.39 Pg C, 95% confidence interval) over 9,391 km2(7,369–11,549 km2) and up to 2.86 Pg C (1.76–4.22 Pg C) across 29,069 km2 (22,429–36,238 km2). Among four potentially peat‐forming ecosystems identified, palm swamps and floodplain forests contributed most to the peat extent and C stock. We found that most peatland patches were relatively small, covering less than 100 ha. We compared our map to previously published global and pan‐tropical peat maps and found low spatial overlap among them, suggesting that peat maps uninformed by local field information may not precisely specify which landscape areas within a peatland‐rich region are actually peatlands. We further assessed the suitability of different EO and climate variables, highlighting the need for high‐resolution data to capture local heterogeneities in the landscape.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2406964
- PAR ID:
- 10632523
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Geophysical Union
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
- Volume:
- 130
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 2169-8953
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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