An official website of the United States government
Some of the most catastrophic fire events that have occurred in the western US in recent decades, such as the 2018 Camp Fire in California, were ignited by electric utility infrastructure. As wildfires and fire seasons intensify across the western United States, policymakers and utilities alike are working to mitigate the risk of wildfire as it relates to utility infrastructure. We pose the following research question: Is there an association between risk factors such as wildfire hazard potential and social vulnerability, and the inclusion of various strategies in mitigation planning by public or cooperative electric utilities in Washington, such as PSPS provisions and non-expulsion fuse installation? By applying statistical tools including t-tests and logistic regression modeling to test these potential associations, our analysis reveals statistically significant relationships between risk factors and the inclusion of specific wildfire mitigation strategies. We find that the inclusion of PSPS provisions in mitigation planning is significantly and nonlinearly associated with wildfire hazard potential, while social and socioeconomic vulnerability in the utility service area are negatively associated. Additionally, the installation of non-expulsion fuses is negatively associated with socioeconomic vulnerability in service populations. Overall, understanding the factors associated with wildfire mitigation planning can assist policymakers and state agencies in the prioritization of resources and practical support for utilities that may have limited capacity to mitigate wildfire risk.
more »
« less
Electric utility vulnerability to wildfires and post-fire debris flows in California
Abstract Wildfires and post-fire debris flows (PFDFs) threaten California infrastructure and are evolving with climate change. There is significant focus on the threat of utility-caused wildfires because electric power equipment has triggered wildfires leading to major damage. California’s ambitious climate targets rely on electrification of transport and industry. As the state modernizes its electricity system to support increased demand, it must consider future climate hazards. To date, there is no rigorous characterization of the intersection of future fire threat, PFDFs, and electrical infrastructure. We estimate wildfire and PFDF threat to transmission lines, substations, and power generators in California and assess vulnerability of electric utilities by intersecting electrical infrastructure and current and future wildfire and PFDF threat, using two global climate models and two representative concentration pathways. We find clean, dispatchable power generators (e.g. hydroelectric and nuclear) and small, publicly-owned utilities are most vulnerable. Increasing threats will require additional resources and consideration of future threat distribution.
more »
« less
- PAR ID:
- 10637816
- Publisher / Repository:
- IOP
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability
- Volume:
- 5
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2634-4505
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 015019
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Quantifying Metrics for Wildfire Ignition Risk from Geographic Data in Power Shutoff Decision-MakingFaults on power lines and other electric equipment are known to cause wildfire ignitions. To mitigate the threat of wildfire ignitions from electric power infrastructure, many utilities preemptively de-energize power lines, which may result in power shutoffs. Data regarding wildfire ignition risks are key inputs for effective planning of power line de-energizations. However, there are multiple ways to formulate risk metrics that spatially aggregate wildfire risk map data, and there are different ways of leveraging this data to make decisions. The key contribution of this paper is to define and compare the results of employing six metrics for quantifying the wildfire ignition risks of power lines from risk maps, considering both threshold- and optimization-based methods for planning power line de-energizations. The numeric results use the California Test System (CATS), a large-scale synthetic grid model with power line corridors accurately representing California infrastructure, in combination with real Wildland Fire Potential Index data for a full year. This is the first application of optimal power shutoff planning on such a large and realistic test case. Our results show that the choice of risk metric significantly impacts the lines that are de-energized and the resulting load shed. We find that the optimization-based method results in significantly less load shed than the threshold-based method while achieving the same risk reduction.more » « less
-
Abstract The growing frequency and size of wildfires across the US necessitates accurate quantitative assessment of evolving wildfire behavior to predict risk from future extreme wildfires. We build a joint model of wildfire counts and burned areas, regressing key model parameters on climate and demographic covariates. We use extended generalized Pareto distributions to model the full distribution of burned areas, capturing both moderate and extreme sizes, while leveraging extreme value theory to focus particularly on the right tail. We model wildfire counts with a zero‐inflated negative binomial model, and join the wildfire counts and burned areas sub‐models using a temporally‐varying shared random effect. Our model successfully captures the trends of wildfire counts and burned areas. By investigating the predictive power of different sets of covariates, we find that fire indices are better predictors of wildfire burned area behavior than individual climate covariates, whereas climate covariates are influential drivers of wildfire occurrence behavior.more » « less
-
Abstract Invasion by non‐native annual grasses poses a serious threat to native vegetation in California, facilitated through interaction with wildfires. Our work is the first attempt to use the coupled fire‐atmosphere model, WRF‐Fire, to investigate how shifts from native, shrub‐dominated vegetation to invasive grasses could have affected a known wildfire event in southern California. We simulate the Mountain Fire, which burned >11,000 ha in July 2013, under idealized fuel conditions representing varying extents of grass invasion. Expanding grass to double its observed coverage causes fire to spread faster due to the lower fuel load in grasses and increased wind speed. Beyond this, further grass expansion reduces the simulated spread rate because lower heat release partially offsets the positive effects. Our simulations suggest that grass expansion may generally promote larger faster‐spreading wildfires in southern California, motivating continued efforts to contain and reduce the spread of invasive annual grasses in this region.more » « less
-
Abstract Climate communication scientists search for effective message strategies to engage the ambivalent public in support of climate advocacy. The personal experience of wildfire is expected to render climate change impacts more concretely, pointing to a potential message strategy to engage the public. This study examined Twitter discourse related to climate change during the onset of 20 wildfires in California between the years 2017 and 2021. In this mixed method study, we analyzed tweets geographically and temporally proximal to the occurrence of wildfires to discover framings and examined how frequencies in climate framings changed before and after fires. Results identified three predominant climate framings: linking wildfire to climate change, suggesting climate actions, and attributing climate change to adversities besides wildfires. Mean tweet frequencies linking wildfire to climate change and attributing adversities increased significantly after the onset of fire. While suggesting climate action tweets also increased, the increase was not statistically significant. Temporal analysis of tweet frequencies for the three themes of tweets showed that discussion increased after the onset of a fire but persisted typically no more than 2 weeks. For fires that burned for longer periods of more than a month, external events triggered climate discussions. Our findings contribute to identifying how the personal experience of wildfire shapes Twitter discussion related to climate change, and how these framings change over time during wildfire events, leading to insights into critical time points after wildfire for implementing message strategies to increase public engagement on climate change impacts and policy.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1088/2634-4505/adb90a
