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The underlying mechanism of the ongoing seismic swarm in the Noto Peninsula, Japan, which generates earthquakes at 10 times the average regional rate, remains elusive. We capture the evolution of the subsurface stress state by monitoring changes in seismic wave velocities over an 11-year period. A sustained long-term increase in seismic velocity that is seasonally modulated drops before the earthquake swarm. We use a three-dimensional hydromechanical model to quantify environmentally driven variations in excess pore pressure, revealing its crucial role in governing the seasonal modulation with a stress sensitivity of 6 × 10−9per pascal. The decrease in seismic velocity aligns with vertical surface uplift, suggesting potential fluid migration from a high–pore pressure zone at depth. Stress changes induced by abnormally intense snow falls contribute to initiating the swarm through subsequent perturbations to crustal pore pressure.
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This content will become publicly available on January 1, 2026
The evolution process between the earthquake swarm beneath the Noto Peninsula, central Japan and the 2024 M 7.6 Noto Hanto earthquake sequence
- Award ID(s):
- 2425889
- PAR ID:
- 10637945
- Publisher / Repository:
- Earthquake Research Advances
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Earthquake Research Advances
- Volume:
- 5
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2772-4670
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 100332
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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