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Abstract Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) has been proposed as a potential climate mitigation strategy raising concerns over trade‐offs with existing ecosystem services. We evaluate the feasibility of BECCS in the Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB), a landscape with diverse land use, ownership, and bioenergy potential. We develop land‐use change scenarios and a switchgrass (Panicum virgatumL.) crop functional type to use in a land‐surface model to simulate second‐generation bioenergy production. By the end of this century, average annual switchgrass production over the UMRB ranges from 60 to 210 Tg dry mass/year and is dependent on the Representative Concentration Pathway for greenhouse gas emissions and on land‐use change assumptions. Under our simple phase‐in assumptions this results in a cumulative total production of 2,000–6,000 Tg C over the study period with the upper estimates only possible in the absence of climate change. Switchgrass yields decreased as average CO2concentrations and temperatures increased, suggesting the effect of elevated atmospheric CO2was small because of its C4 photosynthetic pathway. By the end of the 21st century, the potential energy stored annually in harvested switchgrass averaged between 1 and 4 EJ/year assuming perfect conversion efficiency, or an annual electrical generation capacity of 7,000–28,000 MW assuming current bioenergy efficiency rates. Trade‐offs between bioenergy and ecosystem services were identified, including cumulative direct losses of 1,000–2,600 Tg C stored in natural ecosystems from land‐use change by 2090. Total cumulative losses of ecosystem carbon stocks were higher than the potential ~300 Tg C in fossil fuel emissions from the single largest power plant in the region over the same time period, and equivalent to potential carbon removal from the atmosphere from using biofuels grown in the same region. Numerous trade‐offs from BECCS expansion in the UMRB must be balanced against the potential benefits of a carbon‐negative energy system.
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This content will become publicly available on July 1, 2026
The potential for albedo-induced climate mitigation using no-till management in midwestern U.S. croplands
Abstract No-till management is often recognized for its environmental and economic benefits, but its potential to reduce climate warming is still uncertain. Beyond ongoing debate over its effects on soil carbon storage, no-till also leaves plant residue on the surface, which can reflect more sunlight. This increase in surface reflectivity, called albedo, may help mitigate climate change by reducing the energy absorbed by the land. Here, we assessed this climate benefit of no-till across the U.S. Corn Belt using conservation survey records, county-level tillage data, and satellite observations. We found that no-till increased land surface brightness during the dormant season, reducing absorbed solar energy by an estimated 50 grams of CO2equivalent per square meter per year. Regionally, this could add up to 24 teragrams of CO2equivalent per year in potential climate benefits. Areas with low adoption, especially those with dark, carbon-rich soils, offer the greatest opportunity for further mitigation.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2206086
- PAR ID:
- 10638561
- Publisher / Repository:
- Nature
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Communications Earth & Environment
- Volume:
- 6
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2662-4435
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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