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Abstract Understanding the response of tropical cyclone precipitation to ongoing climate change is essential to determine associated flood risk. However, instrumental records are short-term and fail to capture the full range of variability in seasonal totals of precipitation from tropical cyclones. Here we present a 473-year-long tree-ring proxy record comprised of longleaf pine from excavated coffins, a historical house, remnant stumps, and living trees in southern Mississippi, USA. We use cross-dating dendrochronological analyses calibrated with instrumental records to reconstruct tropical cyclone precipitation stretching back to 1540 CE. We compare this record to potential climatic controls of interannual and multidecadal tropical cyclone precipitation variability along the Gulf Coast. We find that tropical cyclone precipitation declined significantly in the two years following large Northern Hemisphere volcanic eruptions and is influenced by the behavior of the North Atlantic subtropical high-pressure system. Additionally, we suggest that tropical cyclone precipitation variability is significantly, albeit weakly, related to Atlantic multidecadal variability. Finally, we suggest that we need to establish a network for reconstructing precipitation from tropical cyclones in the Southeast USA if we want to capture regional tropical cyclone behavior and associated flood risks.
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This content will become publicly available on May 30, 2026
Reconstructing Tropical Cyclone Activity from Sedimentary Archives
The brevity of the instrumental record limits our knowledge of tropical cyclone activity on multidecadal to longer timescales and hampers our ability to diagnose climatic controls. Sedimentary archives containing event beds provide essential data on tropical cyclone activity over centuries and millennia. This review highlights the advantages and limitations of this approach and how these reconstructions have illuminated patterns of tropical cyclone activity and potential climate drivers over the last millennium. Key elements to developing high-quality reconstructions include confident attribution of event beds to tropical cyclones, assessing the potential role of other mechanisms, and evaluating the potential influence of geomorphic changes, sea-level variations, and sediment supply on a settings’ susceptibility to event bed deposition. Millennium-long histories of severe tropical cyclone occurrence are now available from many locations in the western North Atlantic and western North Pacific, revealing clear regional shifts in activity likely related to intervals of large-scale ocean-atmosphere reorganization.▪Prior to significant human influence in Earth's climate, natural climate variability dramatically altered patterns of tropical cyclone activity.▪For some regions (e.g., The Bahamas and the Marshall Islands), earlier intervals of tropical cyclone activity exceeded what humans have experienced during the recent period of instrumental measurements (∼1850 CE–present).▪Risk assessments based on the short instrumental record likely underestimate the threat posed by tropical cyclones in many regions.▪Changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation associated with the Little Ice Age (∼1400–1800 CE) resulted in significant regional changes in tropical cyclone activity.▪Given the past sensitivity of tropical cyclone activity to climate change, we should anticipate regional shifts in tropical cyclone activity in response to ongoing anthropogenic warming of the planet.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1854980
- PAR ID:
- 10638845
- Publisher / Repository:
- Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
- Volume:
- 53
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 0084-6597
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 251 to 281
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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