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The frequency distributions can characterize the population-potential landscape related to the stability of ecological states. We illustrate the practical utility of this approach by analyzing a forest–savanna model. Savanna and forest states coexist under certain conditions, consistent with past theoretical work and empirical observations. However, a grassland state, unseen in the corresponding deterministic model, emerges as an alternative quasi-stable state under fluctuations, providing a theoretical basis for the appearance of widespread grasslands in some empirical analyses. The ecological dynamics are determined by both the population-potential landscape gradient and the steady-state probability flux. The flux quantifies the net input/output to the ecological system and therefore the degree of nonequilibriumness. Landscape and flux together determine the transitions between stable states characterized by dominant paths and switching rates. The intrinsic potential landscape admits a Lyapunov function, which provides a quantitative measure of global stability. We find that the average flux, entropy production rate, and free energy have significant changes near bifurcations under both finite and zero fluctuation. These may provide both dynamical and thermodynamic origins of the bifurcations. We identified the variances in observed frequency time traces, fluctuations, and time irreversibility as kinematic measures for bifurcations. This framework opens the way to characterize ecological systems globally, to uncover how they change among states, and to quantify the emergence of quasi-stable states under stochastic fluctuations.
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Routing Functions for Parameter Space Decomposition to Describe Stability Landscapes of Ecological Models
Abstract Changes in environmental or system parameters often drive major biological transitions, including ecosystem collapse, disease outbreaks, and tumor development. Analyzing the stability of steady states in dynamical systems provides critical insight into these transitions. This paper introduces an algebraic framework for analyzing the stability landscapes of ecological models defined by systems of first-order autonomous ordinary differential equations with polynomial or rational rate functions. Using tools from real algebraic geometry, we characterize parameter regions associated with steady-state feasibility and stability via three key boundaries: singular, stability (Routh-Hurwitz), and coordinate boundaries. With these boundaries in mind, we employ routing functions to compute the connected components of parameter space in which the number and type of stable steady states remain constant, revealing the stability landscape of these ecological models. As case studies, we revisit the classical Levins-Culver competition-colonization model and a recent model of coral-bacteria symbioses. In the latter, our method uncovers complex stability regimes, including regions supporting limit cycles, that are inaccessible via traditional techniques. These results demonstrate the potential of our approach to inform ecological theory and intervention strategies in systems with nonlinear interactions and multiple stable states.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2331400
- PAR ID:
- 10647552
- Publisher / Repository:
- Springer Science + Business Media
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
- Volume:
- 87
- Issue:
- 12
- ISSN:
- 0092-8240
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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