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The Azores High is a subtropical high-pressure ridge in the North Atlantic surrounded by anticyclonic winds that steer rain-bearing weather systems. The size and intensity of the Azores High modulate the oceanic moisture transport to Europe thereby affecting hydroclimate across western Europe, especially during wintertime. While changes in the North Atlantic storm track have been linked to the variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), we focus on North Atlantic variability with a subtropical perspective by focusing on the Azores High independently of the Icelandic Low. The subtropical perspective provides a direct understanding of regional climate variability in the western Mediterranean and reveals dramatic changes to North Atlantic climate throughout the past century and can provide insight into the impact of future warming on the dynamics of the Azores High and associated hydroclimate. Here we show that winters with an extremely large Azores High are significantly more common in the industrial era (since 1850 CE) than in preindustrial times, resulting in anomalously dry conditions across the western Mediterranean, including the Iberian Peninsula. Climate model simulations of the past millennium indicate that the industrial-era expansion of the Azores High is unprecedented throughout the last millennium (since 850 CE), consistent with proxy evidence from Portugal. Azores High expansion emerges after the end of the Little Ice Age and strengthens into the 20th century consistent with anthropogenically-driven warming.
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This content will become publicly available on April 18, 2026
Changes in the western flank of the North Atlantic subtropical high since 1140 CE: Extremes, drivers, and hydroclimatic patterns
Summer circulation and moisture patterns in the Southeast United States are controlled by the position of the North Atlantic subtropical high. In a warming climate, the subtropical high is projected to strengthen and expand west, but there remains uncertainty regarding its variability and linkages to natural drivers. Here, we use a tree-ring network across the Southeast United States to reconstruct the relative intensity of the pressure gradient across the subtropical high’s western flank over the past 870 years. Variations in the flank’s position and the pressure gradient have been a major driver of the hydroclimate—including creating a Southeast-Caribbean moisture dipole—since 1140 CE. We document a significant increase in flank positional variability since 1900 CE, with westward migrations becoming more extreme. Likewise, major volcanic eruptions cause a multiyear period of westward positioning, leading to distinct regional moisture gradients. Our record highlights important changes in flank behavior, which has important implications for water resource management in a warming world.
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- PAR ID:
- 10648291
- Publisher / Repository:
- Science Advances
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Science Advances
- Volume:
- 11
- Issue:
- 16
- ISSN:
- 2375-2548
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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