Abstract In recent years, longer and heavier trains have become more common, primarily driven by efficiency and cost‐saving measures in the railroad industry. Regulation of train length is currently under consideration in the United States at both the federal and state levels, because of concerns that longer trains may have a higher risk of derailment, but the relationship between train length and risk of derailment is not yet well understood. In this study, we use data on freight train accidents during the 2013–2022 period from the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) Rail Equipment Accident and Highway‐Rail Grade Crossing Accident databases to estimate the relationship between freight train length and the risk of derailment. We determine that longer trains do have a greater risk of derailment. Based on our analysis, running 100‐car trains is associated with 1.11 (95% confidence interval: 1.10–1.12) times the derailment odds of running 50‐car trains (or a 11% increase), even accounting for the fact that only half as many 100‐car trains would need to run. For 200‐car trains, the odds increase by 24% (odds ratio 1.24, 95% confidence interval: 1.20–1.28), again accounting for the need for fewer trains. Understanding derailment risk is an important component for evaluating the overall safety of the rail system and for the future development and regulation of freight rail transportation. Given the limitations of the current data on freight train length, this study provides an important step toward such an understanding.
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This content will become publicly available on February 1, 2026
Toxic Cargo: How Rail Transport of Vinyl Chloride Puts Millions at Risk, an Analysis One Year After the Ohio Train Derailment
On February 3, 2023, five train cars containing 887,400 pounds of vinyl chloride, the key building block for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) plastic, derailed and burned, setting off a major environmental health disaster that sickened area residents and first responders, killed wildlife, and contaminated East Palestine, Ohio and surrounding communities. OxyVinyls is the largest vinyl chloride monomer producer in the United States and the third-largest PVC supplier in the United States. How much of this hazardous chemical is transported every year, and how many people are put at risk? To better understand the magnitude of this hazard, we established the most likely rail routes for shipping of vinyl chloride from two OxyVinyls plants in Texas to four PVC factories in New Jersey, Illinois, and Ontario. We estimate that up to 36 million pounds of vinyl chloride travels on more than 200 rail cars across nearly 2,000 miles of US railways at any given moment. Over a year, an estimated 8,595 rail cars carry approximately 1.5 billion pounds of vinyl chloride from OxyVinyls to these plastics plants. The rail shipment of vinyl chloride to make PVC plastic puts more than three million people at risk. We estimate more than three million people live, and about 670,000 children attend more than 1500 schools, within one mile of the train route between Texas and New Jersey.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2147334
- PAR ID:
- 10649624
- Publisher / Repository:
- SAGE
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- NEW SOLUTIONS: A Journal of Environmental and Occupational Health Policy
- Volume:
- 34
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 1048-2911
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 327 to 340
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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