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Abstract Infectious disease systems frequently exhibit strong seasonal patterns, yet the mechanisms that underpin intra‐annual cycles are unclear, particularly in tropical regions. We hypothesized that host immune function fluctuates seasonally, contributing to oscillations in infection patterns in a tropical disease system. To test this hypothesis, we investigated a key host defense of amphibians against a lethal fungal pathogen,Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis(Bd). We integrated two field experiments in which we perturbed amphibian skin secretions, a critical host immune mechanism, in Panamanian rocket frogs (Colostethus panamansis). We found that this immunosuppressive technique of reducing skin secretions in wild frog populations increasedBdprevalence and infection intensity, indicating that this immune defense contributes to resistance toBdin wild frog populations. We also found that the chemical composition and anti‐Bdeffectiveness of frog skin secretions varied across seasons, with greater pathogen inhibition during the dry season relative to the wet season. These results suggest that the effectiveness of this host defense mechanism shifts across seasons, likely contributing to seasonal infection patterns in a lethal disease system. More broadly, our findings indicate that host immune defenses can fluctuate across seasons, even in tropical regions where temperatures are relatively stable, which advances our understanding of intra‐annual cycles of infectious disease dynamics.
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Leveraging machine learning to uncover multi-pathogen infection dynamics across co-distributed frog families
BackgroundAmphibians are experiencing substantial declines attributed to emerging pathogens. Efforts to understand what drives patterns of pathogen prevalence and differential responses among species are challenging because numerous factors related to the host, pathogen, and their shared environment can influence infection dynamics. Furthermore, sampling across broad taxonomic and geographic scales to evaluate these factors poses logistical challenges, and interpreting the roles of multiple potentially correlated variables is difficult with traditional statistical approaches. In this study, we leverage frozen tissues stored in natural history collections and machine learning techniques to characterize infection dynamics of three generalist pathogens known to cause mortality in frogs. MethodsWe selected 12 widespread and abundant focal taxa within three ecologically distinct, co-distributed host families (Bufonidae, Hylidae, and Ranidae) and sampled them across the eastern two-thirds of the United States of America. We screened and quantified infection loadsviaquantitative PCR for three major pathogens: the fungal pathogenBatrachochytrium dendrobatidis(Bd), double-stranded viruses in the lineageRanavirus(Rv), and the alveolate parasite currently referred to as Amphibian Perkinsea (Pr). We then built balanced random forests (RF) models to predict infection status and intensity based on host taxonomy, age, sex, geography, and environmental variables and to assess relative variable importance across pathogens. Lastly, we used one-way analyses to determine directional relationships and significance of identified predictors. ResultsWe found approximately 20% of individuals were infected with at least one pathogen (231 single infections and 25 coinfections). The most prevalent pathogen across all taxonomic groups was Bd (16.9%; 95% CI [14.9–19%]), followed by Rv (4.38%; 95% CI [3.35–5.7%]) and Pr (1.06%; 95% CI [0.618–1.82%]). The highest prevalence and intensity were found in the family Ranidae, which represented 74.3% of all infections, including the majority of Rv infection points, and had significantly higher Bd intensities compared to Bufonidae and Hylidae. Host species and environmental variables related to temperature were key predictors identified in RF models, with differences in importance among pathogens and host families. For Bd and Rv, infected individuals were associated with higher latitudes and cooler, more stable temperatures, while Pr showed trends in the opposite direction. We found no significant differences between sexes, but juvenile frogs had higher Rv prevalence and Bd infection intensity compared to adults. Overall, our study highlights the use of machine learning techniques and a broad sampling strategy for identifying important factors related to infection in multi-host, multi-pathogen systems.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2112946
- PAR ID:
- 10651577
- Publisher / Repository:
- PeerJ
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- PeerJ
- Volume:
- 13
- ISSN:
- 2167-8359
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- e18901
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.18901
