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  • ‘The fish that stop’: drivers of historical decline for Pacific cod and implications for modern management in an era of rapidly changing climate

This content will become publicly available on July 10, 2026

Title: ‘The fish that stop’: drivers of historical decline for Pacific cod and implications for modern management in an era of rapidly changing climate
In the Gulf of Alaska, a series of marine heat waves depleted Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) biomass to the lowest abundance ever recorded and led to the fishery’s closure in 2020. Although the fishery has been productive for decades, this collapse may have historical precedents. Traditional knowledge holders refer to cod as ‘the fish that stop’, and there is a suggested period of decline in the 1930s. Here we conduct a catch reconstruction of the early commercial fishery (1864–1950), confirming a rapid catch decline in the 1920s and 1930s. Next, we evaluate evidence for possible drivers. We document changes to demand and technology that contributed to declining catch. However, we also find both qualitative and quantitative evidence of depletion, suggesting catch declines were not driven entirely by social factors. Overfishing may have contributed to localized catch declines as evidenced by declining catch rates in heavily fished localities. We also find evidence for climate as a driver of regional decline, with the period of catch decline characterized by up to 2°C higher temperatures as compared to the earlier period of high fisheries production. Our analysis underscores the importance of understanding long-term drivers of fisheries productivity and the value of linking fisheries and climate histories. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Shifting seas: understanding deep-time human impacts on marine ecosystems’.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2220552 2220554
PAR ID:
10651768
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
The Royal Society Publishing
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Volume:
380
Issue:
1930
ISSN:
0962-8436
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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