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This content will become publicly available on March 1, 2026

Title: Modeling competing guidance on evacuation choices under time pressure using virtual reality and machine learning
Efficient emergency guidance in buildings is essential for the safe evacuation of occupants. However, occupants may be exposed to contradictory information from signage and other sources of information. This study presents a set of forced-choice VR experiments and a machine learning approach to investigate the effect of competing or conflicting guidance on exit choice in simulated scenarios. In the VR study, participants chose between two potential exits under time pressure in each trial. Attracting cues (“EXIT” signs, audio instructions) and repelling cues (“DO NOT ENTER” signs, traffic cones) were placed in front of the two exits, either individually or in combination. In total, 2,125 datapoints were recorded from 20 participants. To model exit choice, machine learning (random forest, RF) models were applied to predict and interpret the guidance on evacuation choices. The tuned-hyperparameters RF model proposed in this study showed above 75% accuracy to predict evacuation choices facing conflict cues and was superior to default RF and logistic regression models. Interestingly, repelling cues such as “DO NOT ENTER” signs had a stronger impact on exit choice than attracting cues like “EXIT” signs when people have to make choices. Overall, the study offers valuable data and insights into exit choices, revealing that negative cues are more influential than positive ones in emergencies. These findings can significantly inform the design and optimization of egress guidance systems. This bias towards negative information under pressure suggests that evacuation systems should prioritize clear and prominent negative cues to guide occupants effectively.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1849446
PAR ID:
10652664
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
Elsevier
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Expert Systems with Applications
Volume:
262
Issue:
C
ISSN:
0957-4174
Page Range / eLocation ID:
125582
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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