An official website of the United States government
Context. Machine-learning methods for predicting solar flares typically employ physics-based features that have been carefully cho- sen by experts in order to capture the salient features of the photospheric magnetic fields of the Sun. Aims. Though the sophistication and complexity of these models have grown over time, there has been little evolution in the choice of feature sets, or any systematic study of whether the additional model complexity leads to higher predictive skill. Methods. This study compares the relative prediction performance of four different machine-learning based flare prediction models with increasing degrees of complexity. It evaluates three different feature sets as input to each model: a “traditional” physics-based feature set, a novel “shape-based” feature set derived from topological data analysis (TDA) of the solar magnetic field, and a com- bination of these two sets. A systematic hyperparameter tuning framework is employed in order to assure fair comparisons of the models across different feature sets. Finally, principal component analysis is used to study the effects of dimensionality reduction on these feature sets. Results. It is shown that simpler models with fewer free parameters perform better than the more complicated models on the canonical 24-h flare forecasting problem. In other words, more complex machine-learning architectures do not necessarily guarantee better prediction performance. In addition, it is found that shape-based feature sets contain just as much useful information as physics-based feature sets for the purpose of flare prediction, and that the dimension of these feature sets – particularly the shape-based one – can be greatly reduced without impacting predictive accuracy.
more »
« less
This content will become publicly available on February 12, 2026
SyMANTIC: An Efficient Symbolic Regression Method for Interpretable and Parsimonious Model Discovery in Science and Beyond
Symbolic regression (SR) is an emerging branch of machine learning focused on discovering simple and interpretable mathematical expressions from data. Although a wide-variety of SR methods have been developed, they often face challenges such as high computational cost, poor scalability with respect to the number of input dimensions, fragility to noise, and an inability to balance accuracy and complexity. This work introduces SyMANTIC, a novel SR algorithm that addresses these challenges. SyMANTIC efficiently identifies (potentially several) low-dimensional descriptors from a large set of candidates (from ∼105 to ∼1010 or more) through a unique combination of mutual information-based feature selection, adaptive feature expansion, and recursively applied l 0 -based sparse regression. In addition, it employs an information-theoretic measure to produce an approximate set of Pareto-optimal equations, each offering the best-found accuracy for a given complexity. Furthermore, our open-source implementation of SyMANTIC, built on the PyTorch ecosystem, facilitates easy installation and GPU acceleration. We demonstrate the effectiveness of SyMANTIC across a range of problems, including synthetic examples, scientific benchmarks, real-world material property predictions, and chaotic dynamical system identification from small datasets. Extensive comparisons show that SyMANTIC uncovers similar or more accurate models at a fraction of the cost of existing SR methods.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2237616
- PAR ID:
- 10657424
- Publisher / Repository:
- Elsevier
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research
- Volume:
- 64
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 0888-5885
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 3354 to 3369
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
null (Ed.)Background : Machine learning has been used for classification of physical behavior bouts from hip-worn accelerometers; however, this research has been limited due to the challenges of directly observing and coding human behavior “in the wild.” Deep learning algorithms, such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs), may offer better representation of data than other machine learning algorithms without the need for engineered features and may be better suited to dealing with free-living data. The purpose of this study was to develop a modeling pipeline for evaluation of a CNN model on a free-living data set and compare CNN inputs and results with the commonly used machine learning random forest and logistic regression algorithms. Method : Twenty-eight free-living women wore an ActiGraph GT3X+ accelerometer on their right hip for 7 days. A concurrently worn thigh-mounted activPAL device captured ground truth activity labels. The authors evaluated logistic regression, random forest, and CNN models for classifying sitting, standing, and stepping bouts. The authors also assessed the benefit of performing feature engineering for this task. Results : The CNN classifier performed best (average balanced accuracy for bout classification of sitting, standing, and stepping was 84%) compared with the other methods (56% for logistic regression and 76% for random forest), even without performing any feature engineering. Conclusion : Using the recent advancements in deep neural networks, the authors showed that a CNN model can outperform other methods even without feature engineering. This has important implications for both the model’s ability to deal with the complexity of free-living data and its potential transferability to new populations.more » « less
-
null (Ed.)Machine learning algorithms can learn mechanisms of antimicrobial resistance from the data of DNA sequence without any a priori information. Interpreting a trained machine learning algorithm can be exploited for validating the model and obtaining new information about resistance mechanisms. Different feature extraction methods, such as SNP calling and counting nucleotide k-mers have been proposed for presenting DNA sequences to the model. However, there are trade-offs between interpretability, computational complexity and accuracy for different feature extraction methods. In this study, we have proposed a new feature extraction method, counting amino acid k-mers or oligopeptides, which provides easier model interpretation compared to counting nucleotide k-mers and reaches the same or even better accuracy in comparison with different methods. Additionally, we have trained machine learning algorithms using different feature extraction methods and compared the results in terms of accuracy, model interpretability and computational complexity. We have built a new feature selection pipeline for extraction of important features so that new AMR determinants can be discovered by analyzing these features. This pipeline allows the construction of models that only use a small number of features and can predict resistance accurately.more » « less
-
The traditional framework for feature selection treats all features as costing the same amount. However, in reality, a scientist often has considerable discretion regarding which variables to measure, and the decision involves a tradeoff between model accuracy and cost (where cost can refer to money, time, difficulty or intrusiveness). In particular, unnecessarily including an expensive feature in a model is worse than unnecessarily including a cheap feature. We propose a procedure, which we call cheap knockoffs, for performing feature selection in a cost‐conscious manner. The key idea behind our method is to force higher cost features to compete with more knockoffs than cheaper features. We derive an upper bound on the weighted false discovery proportion associated with this procedure, which corresponds to the fraction of the feature cost that is wasted on unimportant features. We prove that this bound holds simultaneously with high probability over a path of selected variable sets of increasing size. A user may thus select a set of features based, for example, on the overall budget, while knowing that no more than a particular fraction of feature cost is wasted. We investigate, through simulation and a biomedical application, the practical importance of incorporating cost considerations into the feature selection process.more » « less
-
Abstract—Numerical simulation of weather is resolution-constrained due to the high computational cost of integrating the coupled PDEs that govern atmospheric motion. For example, the most highly-resolved numerical weather prediction models are limited to approximately 3 km. However many weather and climate impacts occur over much finer scales, especially in urban areas and regions with high topographic complexity like mountains or coastal regions. Thus several statistical methods have been developed in the climate community to downscale numerical model output to finer resolutions. This is conceptually similar to image super-resolution (SR) [1] and in this work we report the results of applying SR methods to the downscaling problem. In particular we test the extent to which a SR method based on a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) can recover a grid of wind speed from an artificially downsampled version, compared against a standard bicubic upsampling approach and another machine learning based approach, SR-CNN [1]. We use ESRGAN ([2]) to learn to downscale wind speeds by a factor of 4 from a coarse grid. We find that we can recover spatial details with higher fidelity than bicubic upsampling or SR-CNN. The bicubic and SR-CNN methods perform better than ESRGAN on coarse metrics such as MSE. However, the high frequency power spectrum is captured remarkably well by the ESRGAN, virtually identical to the real data, while bicubic and SR-CNN fidelity drops significantly at high frequency. This indicates that SR is considerably better at matching the higher-order statistics of the dataset, consistent with the observation that the generated images are of superior visual quality compared with SR-CNN.more » « less
