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Abstract High-latitude and altitude cold regions are affected by climate warming and permafrost degradation. One of the major concerns associated with degrading permafrost is thaw subsidence (TS) due to melting of excess ground ice and associated thaw consolidation. Field observations, remote sensing, and numerical modeling are used to measure and estimate the extent and rates of TS across broad spatial and temporal scales. Our new data synthesis effort from diverse permafrost regions of North America and Eurasia, confirms widespread TS across the panarctic permafrost domain with rates of up to 2 cm yr−1in the areas with low ice content and more than 3 cm yr−1in regions with ice-rich permafrost. Areas with human activities or areas affected by wildfires exhibited higher subsidence rates. Our findings suggest that permafrost landscapes are undergoing geomorphic change that is impacting hydrology, ecosystems, and human infrastructure. The development of a systematic TS monitoring is urgently needed to deliver consistent and continuous exchange of data across different permafrost regions. Integration of coordinated field observations, remote sensing, and modeling of TS across a range of scales would contribute to better understanding of rapidly changing permafrost environments and resulting climate feedbacks.more » « less
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Abstract. The Arctic poses many challenges for Earth system and snow physics models, which are commonly unable to simulate crucial Arctic snowpack processes,such as vapour gradients and rain-on-snow-induced ice layers. These limitations raise concerns about the current understanding of Arctic warming and its impact on biodiversity, livelihoods, permafrost, and the global carbon budget. Recognizing that models are shaped by human choices, 18 Arctic researchers were interviewed to delve into the decision-making process behind model construction. Although data availability, issues of scale, internal model consistency, and historical and numerical model legacies were cited as obstacles to developing an Arctic snowpack model, no opinion was unanimous. Divergences were not merely scientific disagreements about the Arctic snowpack but reflected the broader research context. Inadequate and insufficient resources, partly driven by short-term priorities dominating research landscapes, impeded progress. Nevertheless, modellers were found to be both adaptable to shifting strategic research priorities – an adaptability demonstrated by the fact that interdisciplinary collaborations were the key motivation for model development – and anchored in the past. This anchoring and non-epistemic values led to diverging opinions about whether existing models were “good enough” and whether investing time and effort to build a new model was a useful strategy when addressing pressing research challenges. Moving forward, we recommend that both stakeholders and modellers be involved in future snow model intercomparison projects in order to drive developments that address snow model limitations currently impeding progress in various disciplines. We also argue for more transparency about the contextual factors that shape research decisions. Otherwise, the reality of our scientific process will remain hidden, limiting the changes necessary to our research practice.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available October 9, 2025
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### Overview The SACHI (Sentinel-1/2 derived Arctic Coastal Human Impact) dataset has been developed as part of the HORIZON2020 project Nunataryuk by b.geos (www.bgeos.com). V1 covered a 100km buffer from the Arctic Coast (land area), for areas with permafrost near the coast. V2 covers additional selected areas extending the coverage to the south. It is based on Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data from 2016-2020 using the algorithms described in Bartsch et al. (2020). It is a supplement to Bartsch et al. (2023). This dataset contains detected coastal infrastructure separated into seven different categories: linear transport infrastructure (asphalt), linear transport infrastructure (gravel), linear transport infrastructure (undefined), buildings (and other constructions such as bridges), other impacted area (includes gravel pads, mining sites), airstrip, and reservoir or other water body impacted by human activities. This SACHI version 2 dataset was post-processed by the Permafrost Discovery Gateway visualization pipeline. This workflow cleaned, standardized, and visualized the data as two Tile Matrix Sets per year. One Tile Matrix Set is the data in the form of GeoPackages, or staged tiles, and the other Tile Matrix Set is the staged tiles in the form of GeoTIFF tiles. The highest resolution tiles were resampled to produce GeoTIFFs for lower resolutions. This data is visualized on the Permafrost Discovery Gateway portal: https://arcticdata.io/catalog/portals/permafrost/Imagery-Viewer ### References Bartsch, A., Widhalm, B., von Baeckmann, C., Efimova, A., Tanguy, R., and Pointner, G. (2023). Sentinel-1/2 derived Arctic Coastal Human Impact dataset (SACHI) (v2.0) [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10160636 Bartsch, A., G. Pointner, I. Nitze, A. Efimova, D. Jakober, S. Ley, E. Högström, G. Grosse, P. Schweitzer (2021): Expanding infrastructure and growing anthropogenic impacts along Arctic coasts. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac317 Bartsch, A., Pointner, G., Ingeman-Nielsen, T. and Lu, W. (2020), ‘Towards circumpolar mapping of Arctic settlements and infrastructure based on Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2’, Remote Sensing 12(15), 2368. ### Access Data files output from the visualization workflow are available for download at: [http://arcticdata.io/data/10.18739/A21J97929](http://arcticdata.io/data/10.18739/A21J97929) To download all files in the command line, run the following command in a terminal: `wget -r -np -nH --cut-dirs=3 -R '\?C=' -R robots.txt https://arcticdata.io/data/10.18739/A21J97929/` To download a subdirectory of the archived files, add the subdirectories to the end of the URL above.more » « less
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ABSTRACT Research in geocryology is currently principally concerned with the effects of climate change on permafrost terrain. The motivations for most of the research are (1) quantification of the anticipated net emissions of CO2and CH4from warming and thaw of near‐surface permafrost and (2) mitigation of effects on infrastructure of such warming and thaw. Some of the effects, such as increases in ground temperature or active‐layer thickness, have been observed for several decades. Landforms that are sensitive to creep deformation are moving more quickly as a result, andRock Glacier Velocityis now part of the Essential Climate VariablePermafrostof the Global Climate Observing System. Other effects, for example, the occurrence of physical disturbances associated with thawing permafrost, particularly the development of thaw slumps, have noticeably increased since 2010. Still, others, such as erosion of sedimentary permafrost coasts, have accelerated. Geochemical effects in groundwater from trace elements, including contaminants, and those that issue from the release of sediment particles during mass wasting have become evident since 2020. Net release of CO2and CH4from thawing permafrost is anticipated within two decades and, worldwide, may reach emissions that are equivalent to a large industrial economy. The most immediate local concerns are for waste disposal pits that were constructed on the premise that permafrost would be an effective and permanent containment medium. This assumption is no longer valid at many contaminated sites. The role of ground ice in conditioning responses to changes in the thermal or hydrological regimes of permafrost has re‐emphasized the importance of regional conditions, particularly landscape history, when applying research results to practical problems.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available December 10, 2025
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Abstract Permafrost is a sub-ground phenomenon and therefore cannot be directly observed from space. It is an Essential Climate Variable and associated with climate tipping points. Multi-annual time series of permafrost ground temperatures can be, however, derived through modelling of the heat transfer between atmosphere and ground using landsurface temperature, snow- and landcover observations from space. Results show that the northern hemisphere permafrost ground temperatures have increased on average by about one degree Celsius since 2000. This is in line with trends of permafrost proxies observable from space: surface water extent has been decreasing across the Arctic; the landsurface is subsiding continuously in some regions indicating ground ice melt; hot summers triggered increased subsidence as well as thaw slumps; rock glaciers are accelerating in some mountain regions. The applicability of satellite data for permafrost proxy monitoring has been demonstrated mostly on a local to regional scale only. There is still a lack of consistency of acquisitions and of very high spatial resolution observations. Both are needed for implementation of circumpolar monitoring of lowland permafrost. In order to quantify the impacts of permafrost thaw on the carbon cycle, advancement in wetland and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration monitoring from space is needed.more » « less
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Increased industrial development in the Arctic has led to a rapid expansion of infrastructure in the region. Localized impacts of infrastructure on snow distribution, road dust, and snowmelt timing and duration feeds back into the coupled Arctic system causing a series of cascading effects that remain poorly understood. We quantify spatial and temporal patterns of snow-off dates in the Prudhoe Bay Oilfield, Alaska, using Sentinel-2 data. We derive the Normalized Difference Snow Index to quantify snow persistence in 2019–2020. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Normalized Difference Water Index were used to show linkages of vegetation and surface hydrology, in relationship to patterns of snowmelt. Newly available infrastructure data were used to analyze snowmelt patterns in relation infrastructure. Results show a relationship between snowmelt and distance to infrastructure varying by use and traffic load, and orientation relative to the prevailing wind direction (up to 1 month difference in snow-free dates). Post-snowmelt surface water area showed a strong negative correlation (up to −0.927) with distance to infrastructure. Results from field observations indicate an impact of infrastructure on winter near-surface ground temperature and snow depth. This study highlights the impact of infrastructure on a large area beyond the direct human footprint and the interconnectedness between snow-off timing, vegetation, surface hydrology, and near-surface ground temperatures.more » « less
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null (Ed.)Abstract The accelerating climatic changes and new infrastructure development across the Arctic require more robust risk and environmental assessment, but thus far there is no consistent record of human impact. We provide a first panarctic satellite-based record of expanding infrastructure and anthropogenic impacts along all permafrost affected coasts (100 km buffer, ≈6.2 Mio km 2 ), named the Sentinel-1/2 derived Arctic Coastal Human Impact (SACHI) dataset. The completeness and thematic content goes beyond traditional satellite based approaches as well as other publicly accessible data sources. Three classes are considered: linear transport infrastructure (roads and railways), buildings, and other impacted area. C-band synthetic aperture radar and multi-spectral information (2016–2020) is exploited within a machine learning framework (gradient boosting machines and deep learning) and combined for retrieval with 10 m nominal resolution. In total, an area of 1243 km 2 constitutes human-built infrastructure as of 2016–2020. Depending on region, SACHI contains 8%–48% more information (human presence) than in OpenStreetMap. 221 (78%) more settlements are identified than in a recently published dataset for this region. 47% is not covered in a global night-time light dataset from 2016. At least 15% (180 km 2 ) correspond to new or increased detectable human impact since 2000 according to a Landsat-based normalized difference vegetation index trend comparison within the analysis extent. Most of the expanded presence occurred in Russia, but also some in Canada and US. 31% and 5% of impacted area associated predominantly with oil/gas and mining industry respectively has appeared after 2000. 55% of the identified human impacted area will be shifting to above 0 ∘ C ground temperature at two meter depth by 2050 if current permafrost warming trends continue at the pace of the last two decades, highlighting the critical importance to better understand how much and where Arctic infrastructure may become threatened by permafrost thaw.more » « less