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Abstract Dual active galaxy nuclei (dAGNs) trace the population of post-merger galaxies and are the precursors to massive black hole (MBH) mergers, an important source of gravitational waves that may be observed by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). In Paper I of this series, we used the population of ≈2000 galaxy mergers predicted by the TNG50-3 simulation to seed semi-analytic models of the orbital evolution and coalescence of MBH pairs with initial separations of ≈1 kpc. Here, we calculate the dAGN luminosities and separations of these pairs as they evolve in post-merger galaxies, and show how the coalescence fraction of dAGNs changes with redshift. We find that because of the several gigayear-long dynamical friction timescale for orbital evolution, the fraction of dAGNs that eventually end in an MBH merger grows with redshift and exceeds 50% beyondz_dAGN≈ 1. Dual AGNs in galaxies with bulge masses ≲10¹⁰M_⊙, or consisting of near-equal-mass MBHs, evolve more quickly and have higher than average coalescence fractions. At any redshift, dAGNs observed with small separations (≲0.7 kpc) have a higher probability of merging beforez= 0 than more widely separated systems. Radiation feedback effects can significantly reduce the number of MBH mergers, and this could be manifested as a larger than expected number of widely separated dAGNs. We present a method to estimate the MBH coalescence rate as well as the potential LISA detection rate given a survey of dAGNs. Comparing these rates to the eventual LISA measurements will help determine the efficiency of dynamical friction in post-merger galaxies. 

Abstract We evaluate the cosmological coalescence and detection rates for massive black hole (MBH) binaries targeted by the gravitational wave observatory Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). Our calculation starts with a population of gravitationally unbound MBH pairs, drawn from the TNG50-3 cosmological simulation, and follows their orbital evolution from kiloparsec scales all the way to coalescence using a semi-analytic model developed in our previous work. We find that for the majority of MBH pairs that coalesce within a Hubble time dynamical friction is the most important mechanism that determines their coalescence rate. Our model predicts an MBH coalescence rate ≲0.45 yr −1 and a LISA detection rate ≲0.34 yr −1 . Most LISA detections should originate from 10 6 to 10 6.8 M ⊙ MBHs in gas-rich galaxies at redshifts 1.6 ≤ z ≤ 2.4 and have a characteristic signal-to-noise ratio S/N ∼100. We however find a dramatic reduction in the coalescence and detection rates, as well as the average S/N, if the effects of radiative feedback from accreting MBHs are taken into account. In this case, the MBH coalescence rate is reduced by 78% (to ≲0.1 yr −1 ), and the LISA detection rate is reduced by 94% (to 0.02 yr −1 ), whereas the average S/N is ∼10. We emphasize that our model provides a conservative estimate of the LISA detection rates, due to the limited MBH mass range in TNG50-3, consistent with other works in the literature that draw their MBH pairs from cosmological simulations. 

ABSTRACT Variable active galactic nuclei showing periodic light curves have been proposed as massive black hole binary (MBHB) candidates. In such scenarios, the periodicity can be due to relativistic Doppler-boosting of the emitted light. This hypothesis can be tested through the timing of scattered polarized light. Following the results of polarization studies in type I nuclei and of dynamical studies of MBHBs with circumbinary discs, we assume a coplanar equatorial scattering ring, whose elements contribute differently to the total polarized flux, due to different scattering angles, levels of Doppler boost, and line-of-sight time delays. We find that in the presence of an MBHB, both the degree of polarization and the polarization position angle have periodic modulations. The polarization angle oscillates around the semiminor axis of the projected MBHB orbital ellipse, with a frequency equal either to the binary’s orbital frequency (for large scattering screen radii), or twice this value (for smaller scattering structures). These distinctive features can be used to probe the nature of periodic MBHB candidates and to compile catalogues of the most promising sub-pc MBHBs. The identification of such polarization features in gravitational-wave (GW) detected MBHBs would enormously increase the amount of physical information about the sources, allowing the measurement of the individual masses of the binary components, and the orientation of the line of nodes on the sky, even for monochromatic GW signals. 

ABSTRACT We use the magnetic-hydrodynamical simulation TNG50 to study the evolution of barred massive disc galaxies. Massive spiral galaxies are already present as early as z = 4, and bar formation takes place already at those early times. The bars grow longer and stronger as the host galaxies evolve, with the bar sizes increasing at a pace similar to that of the disc scalelengths. The bar fraction mildly evolves with redshift for galaxies with $$M_{*}\ge 10^{10}\rm M_{\odot }$$, being greater than $$\sim 40{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$$ at 0.5 < z < 3 and $$\sim 30{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$$ at z = 0. When bars larger than a given physical size ($$\ge 2\, \rm kpc$$) or the angular resolution limit of twice the I-band angular PSF FWHM of the HST are considered, the bar fraction dramatically decreases with increasing redshift, reconciling the theoretical predictions with observational data. We find that barred galaxies have an older stellar population, lower gas fractions, and star formation rates than unbarred galaxies. In most cases, the discs of barred galaxies assembled earlier and faster than the discs of unbarred galaxies. We also find that barred galaxies are typical in haloes with larger concentrations and smaller spin parameters than unbarred galaxies. Furthermore, the inner regions of barred galaxies are more baryon-dominated than those of unbarred galaxies but have comparable global stellar mass fractions. Our findings suggest that the bar population could be used as a potential tracer of the buildup of disc galaxies and their host haloes. With this paper, we release a catalogue of barred galaxies in TNG50 at six redshifts between z = 4 and 0. 

Abstract The science objectives of the LISA mission have been defined under the implicit assumption of a 4-years continuous data stream. Based on the performance of LISA Pathfinder, it is now expected that LISA will have a duty cycle of $$\approx 0.75$$ ≈ 0.75 , which would reduce the effective span of usable data to 3 years. This paper reports the results of a study by the LISA Science Group, which was charged with assessing the additional science return of increasing the mission lifetime. We explore various observational scenarios to assess the impact of mission duration on the main science objectives of the mission. We find that the science investigations most affected by mission duration concern the search for seed black holes at cosmic dawn, as well as the study of stellar-origin black holes and of their formation channels via multi-band and multi-messenger observations. We conclude that an extension to 6 years of mission operations is recommended. 

Abstract The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will be a transformative experiment for gravitational wave astronomy, and, as such, it will offer unique opportunities to address many key astrophysical questions in a completely novel way. The synergy with ground-based and space-born instruments in the electromagnetic domain, by enabling multi-messenger observations, will add further to the discovery potential of LISA. The next decade is crucial to prepare the astrophysical community for LISA’s first observations. This review outlines the extensive landscape of astrophysical theory, numerical simulations, and astronomical observations that are instrumental for modeling and interpreting the upcoming LISA datastream. To this aim, the current knowledge in three main source classes for LISA is reviewed; ultra-compact stellar-mass binaries, massive black hole binaries, and extreme or interme-diate mass ratio inspirals. The relevant astrophysical processes and the established modeling techniques are summarized. Likewise, open issues and gaps in our understanding of these sources are highlighted, along with an indication of how LISA could help making progress in the different areas. New research avenues that LISA itself, or its joint exploitation with upcoming studies in the electromagnetic domain, will enable, are also illustrated. Improvements in modeling and analysis approaches, such as the combination of numerical simulations and modern data science techniques, are discussed. This review is intended to be a starting point for using LISA as a new discovery tool for understanding our Universe.