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Abstract The northern Sierra Nevada batholith was emplaced into and across a series of accreted crustal belts that vary considerably in their ages and lithologies. Unlike batholithic segments to the south, the northern Sierra comprises smaller, spatially distinct plutons where geologic relations with the host basement can be observed. Intermediate to felsic plutons were sampled as arc‐perpendicular transects at the latitude of Lake Tahoe and zircon Lu‐Hf and trace element analysis was performed in order to assess the relative impacts of temporal and spatial variability of arc magmatism on zircon geochemistry. Trends through time in the Hf data are complex, whereas there is an abrupt step from juvenile values in plutons intruding western belts (+12.3 to +14.4) to more evolved values in those intruding the Northern Sierra terrane to the east (−0.6 to +5.2). A similar pattern is observed in several zircon trace element signatures, including pronounced steps toward higher U/Yb, Dy/Yb and Ce/Y from the western belts into the Northern Sierra terrane to the east. The step is approximately coincident with the Feather River terrane, which is interpreted to mark the suture between the oceanic lithosphere to the west and the North American continental lithosphere to the east. The observed links between variation in zircon Lu‐Hf and trace element concentration and basement domain indicate that northern Sierran zircons incorporate, and are sensitive to, the crustal tracts into which they are emplaced. Preliminary application of our results to provenance analysis of Great Valley strata indicates changing provenance through time in the adjacent forearc. 

Smallholder agriculture is critical for current and future food security, yet quantifying the sources of smallholder yield variance remains a major challenge. Attributing yield variance to farmer management, as opposed to soil and weather constraints, is an important step to understanding the impact of farmer decision-making, in a context where smallholder farmers use a wide range of management practices and may have limited access to fertilizer. This study used a process-based crop model to simulate smallholder maize (Zea mays) yield at the district-level in Zambia and quantify the percent of yield variance (effect size) attributed to soil, weather, and three management inputs (cultivar, fertilizer, planting date). Effect sizes were calculated via an ANOVA variance decomposition. Further, to better understand the treatment effects of management practices, effect sizes were calculated both for all years combined and for individual years. We found that farmer management decisions explained 27–82 % of total yield variance for different agro-ecological regions in Zambia, primarily due to fertilizer impact. Fertilizer explained 45 % of yield variance for the average district, although its effect was much larger in northern districts of Zambia that typically have higher precipitation, where it explained 72 % of yield variance on average. When fixing a specific fertilizer amount, the “low-cost” management options of varying planting dates and cultivars explained 20–28 % of yield variance, with some regional variation. To better understand why management practices impact yield more in particular years, we performed a correlation analysis comparing yearly management effect sizes with four meteorologically based variables: total growing season precipitation, rainy season onset, extreme heat degree days, and longest dry spell. Results showed that fertilizer’s impact generally increased under favorable weather conditions, and planting date’s impact increased under adverse weather conditions. This study demonstrates how a national yield variance decomposition can be used to understand where specific management interventions would have a greater impact and can provide policymakers with quantification of soil, weather, and management effects. In addition, the variance composition can easily be adapted to a different range of management inputs, such as other cultivars or fertilizer quantities, and can also be used to assess the effect size of management adaptations under climate change. 

CONTEXT Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the climatic and biophysical potential to grow the crops it needs to meet rapidly growing food demand; however, agricultural productivity remains low. While potential maize yields in Zambia are 9 t per hectare (t/ha), the average farmer produces only 1–2. OBJECTIVE We evaluate the contribution of responses to weather risk to that gap by decomposing the yield gap in maize in Zambia. While we know that improved seed and fertilizer can expand yield and profit, they may also increase the variance of yield under different weather outcomes, reducing their adoption. METHODS We use a novel approach combining crop modeling and statistical analysis of survey data to obtain the yield gap components in Zambia driven by input cost and input risk. We use a crop model to simulate district-level marginal effects of fertilizer and seed maturity choice on the mean and variance of expected yield and profit under all-weather outcomes for each district for the past 30 years. We compare input levels that maximize expected yield to those that maximize expected profit and maximize the expected mean-variance trade-off assuming risk-aversion. To determine how much farmers' input choices are made to reduce risk, we then quantify differences in the expected riskiness of inputs by district. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS We find approximately one-quarter of the yield gap can be explained by risk-reducing behavior, albeit with a substantial geographic variation. Given this finding, under present conditions, we expect that the average maximum yield that farmers can obtain without increasing risk is 6.75 t/ha compared to a potential profit-maximizing level of 8.84 t/ha. SIGNIFICANCE The risk-related yield gap is only expected to increase with weather extremes driven by climate change. Promoting “one-size-fits all” solutions to closing the yield gap could underestimate the effect of risk mitigation on agricultural production while increasing farmers' risk exposure. 

Uplift and amalgamation of the high-elevation (>3000 m) Tian Shan and Pamir ranges in Central Asia restricts westerly atmospheric flow and thereby limits moisture delivery to the leeward Taklimakan Desert in the Tarim Basin (<1500 m), the second largest modern sand dune desert on Earth. Although some research suggests that the hyper-arid conditions observed today in the Tarim Basin developed by ca. 25 Ma, stratigraphic evidence suggests the first erg system did not appear until 12.2 Ma. To address this controversy and to understand the tectonic influences on climate in Central Asia, we studied a continuous, 3800-m-thick stratigraphic section deposited from 15.1 to 0.9 Ma now exposed within the western Kepintagh fold-and-thrust belt in the southern Tian Shan foreland. We present new detrital zircon data (n = 839), new carbonate oxygen (δ18Oc) and carbon (δ13Cc) stable isotope compositions (n = 368), structural modeling, and stratigraphic observations, and combine these data with recently published magnetostratigraphy and regional studies to reconstruct the history of deposition, deformation, and climate change in the northwestern Tarim Basin. We find that basins along the southern (this study) and northern (i.e., Ili Basin) margins of the Tian Shan were likely receiving similar westerly precipitation by 15 Ma (δ18Oc = ∼−8‰) and had similar lacustrine-playa environments at ca. 13.5 Ma, despite differences in sedimentary provenance. At ca. 12 Ma, an erg desert formed adjacent to the southern Tian Shan in the northwestern Tarim Basin, coincident with a mid- to late Miocene phase of deformation and exhumation within both the Pamir and southern Tian Shan. Desertification at ca. 12 Ma was marked by a negative δ18Oc excursion from −7.8 ± 0.4‰ to −8.7 ± 0.7‰ in the southern Tian Shan foreland (this study), coeval with a negative δ18Oc excursion (∼−11 to −13‰) in the Tajik Basin, west of the Pamir. These data suggest that only after ca. 12 Ma did the Pamir-Tian Shan create a high-elevation barrier that effectively blocked westerly moisture, forming a rain shadow in the northwestern Tarim Basin. After 7 Ma, the southern Tian Shan foreland migrated southward as this region experienced widespread deformation. In our study area, rapid shortening and deformation above two frontal foreland faults initiated between 6.0 and 3.5 Ma resulted in positive δ13Cc excursions to values close to 0‰, which is interpreted to reflect exhumation in the Tian Shan and recycling of Paleozoic carbonates. Shortening led to isolation of the study site as a piggy-back basin by 3.5 Ma, when the sediment provenance was limited to the exhumed Paleozoic basement rocks of the Kepintagh fold belt. The abrupt sedimentologic and isotopic changes observed in the southern Tian Shan foreland appear to be decoupled from late Cenozoic global climate change and can be explained entirely by local tectonics. This study highlights how tectonics may overprint the more regional and global climate signals in active tectonic settings. 

Abstract The southern Coast Mountain batholith was episodically active from Jurassic to Eocene time and experienced four distinct high magmatic flux events during that period. Similar episodicity has been recognized in arcs worldwide, yet the mechanism(s) driving such punctuated magmatic behavior are debated. This study uses zircon Hf and O isotopes, with whole-rock and mineral geochemistry, to track spatiotemporal changes in southern Coast Mountains batholith melt sources and to evaluate models of flare-up behavior and crust formation in Cordilleran arc systems. Zircon Hf isotope analysis yielded consistently primitive values, with all zircon grains recording initial εHf between +6 and +16. The majority (97%) of zircons analyzed yielded δ18O values between 4.2‰ and 6.5‰, and only five grains recorded values of up to 8.3‰. These isotopic results are interpreted to reflect magmatism dominated by mantle melting during all time periods and across all areas of the southern batholith, which argues against the periodic input of more melt-fertile crustal materials as the driver of episodic arc magmatism. They also indicate that limited crustal recycling is needed to produce the large volumes of continental crust generated in the batholith. Although the isotopic character of intrusions is relatively invariant through time, magmas emplaced during flare-ups record higher Sr/Y and La/Yb(N) and lower zircon Ti and Yb concentrations, which is consistent with melting in thickened crust with garnet present as a fractionating phase. Flare-ups are also temporally associated with periods when the southern Coast Mountains batholith both widens and advances inboard. We suggest that the landward shift of the arc into more fertile lithospheric mantle domains triggers voluminous magmatism and is accompanied by magmatic and/or tectonic thickening. Overall, these results demonstrate that the magmatic growth of Cordilleran arcs can be spatially and temporally complex without requiring variability in the contributions of crust and/or mantle to the batholith. 

Human microbiome studies are increasingly incorporating macroecological approaches, such as community assembly, network analysis and functional redundancy to more fully characterize the microbiome. Such analyses have not been applied to ancient human microbiomes, preventing insights into human microbiome evolution. We address this issue by analysing published ancient microbiome datasets: coprolites from Rio Zape ( n = 7; 700 CE Mexico) and historic dental calculus ( n = 44; 1770–1855 CE, UK), as well as two novel dental calculus datasets: Maya ( n = 7; 170 BCE-885 CE, Belize) and Nuragic Sardinians ( n = 11; 1400–850 BCE, Italy). Periodontitis-associated bacteria ( Treponema denticola , Fusobacterium nucleatum and Eubacterium saphenum ) were identified as keystone taxa in the dental calculus datasets. Coprolite keystone taxa included known short-chain fatty acid producers ( Eubacterium biforme, Phascolarctobacterium succinatutens ) and potentially disease-associated bacteria ( Escherichia , Brachyspira) . Overlap in ecological profiles between ancient and modern microbiomes was indicated by similarity in functional response diversity profiles between contemporary hunter–gatherers and ancient coprolites, as well as parallels between ancient Maya, historic UK, and modern Spanish dental calculus; however, the ancient Nuragic dental calculus shows a distinct ecological structure. We detected key ecological signatures from ancient microbiome data, paving the way to expand understanding of human microbiome evolution. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Insights into health and disease from ancient biomolecules’. 

Abstract High taxonomic diversity in non-industrial human gut microbiomes is often interpreted as beneficial; however, it is unclear if taxonomic diversity engenders ecological resilience (i.e. community stability and metabolic continuity). We estimate resilience through genus and species-level richness, phylogenetic diversity, and evenness in short-chain fatty acid (SCFA) production among a global gut metagenome panel of 12 populations (n = 451) representing industrial and non-industrial lifestyles, including novel metagenomic data from Burkina Faso (n = 90). We observe significantly higher genus-level resilience in non-industrial populations, while SCFA production in industrial populations is driven by a few phylogenetically closely related species (belonging toBacteroidesandClostridium), meaning industrial microbiomes have low resilience potential. Additionally, database bias obfuscates resilience estimates, as we were 2–5 times more likely to identify SCFA-encoding species in industrial microbiomes compared to non-industrial. Overall, we find high phylogenetic diversity, richness, and evenness of bacteria encoding SCFAs in non-industrial gut microbiomes, signaling high potential for resilience in SCFA production, despite database biases that limit metagenomic analysis of non-industrial populations.