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Abstract PremiseSeed germination involves risk; post‐germination conditions might not allow survival and reproduction. Variable, stressful environments favor seeds with germination that avoids risk (e.g., germination in conditions predicting success), spreads risk (e.g., dormancy), or escapes risk (e.g., rapid germination). Germination studies often investigate trait correlations with climate features linked to variation in post‐germination reproductive success. Rarely are long‐term records of population reproductive success available. MethodsSupported by demographic and climate monitoring, we analyzed germination in the California winter‐annualClarkia xantianasubsp.xantiana. Sowing seeds of 10 populations across controlled levels of water potential and temperature, we estimated temperature‐specific base water potential for 20% germination, germination time weighted by water potential above base (hydrotime), and a dormancy index (frequency of viable, ungerminated seeds). Mixed‐effects models analyzed responses to (1) temperature, (2) discrete variation in reproductive success (presence or absence of years with zero seed production by a population), and (3) climate covariates, mean winter precipitation and coefficient of variation (CV) of spring precipitation. For six populations, records enabled analysis with a continuous metric of variable reproduction, the CV of per‐capita reproductive success. ResultsPopulations with more variable reproductive success had higher base water potential and dormancy. Higher base water potential and faster germination occurred at warmer experimental temperatures and in seeds of populations with wetter winters. ConclusionsGeographic variation in seed germination in this species suggests local adaptation to demographic risk and rainfall. High base water potential and dormancy may concentrate germination in years likely to allow reproduction, while spreading risk among years. 

Bet hedging consists of life history strategies that buffer against environmental variability by trading off immediate and long-term fitness. Delayed germination in annual plants is a classic example of bet hedging and is often invoked to explain low germination fractions. We examined whether bet hedging explains low and variable germination fractions among 20 populations of the winter annual plant Clarkia xantiana ssp. xantiana that experience substantial variation in reproductive success among years. Leveraging 15 years of demographic monitoring and 3 years of field germination experiments, we assessed the fitness consequences of seed banks and compared optimal germination fractions from a density-independent bet-hedging model to observed germination fractions. We did not find consistent evidence of bet hedging or the expected trade-off between arithmetic and geometric mean fitness, although delayed germination increased long-term fitness in 7 of 20 populations. Optimal germination fractions were two to five times higher than observed germination fractions, and among-population variation in germination fractions was not correlated with risks across the life cycle. Our comprehensive test suggests that bet hedging is not sufficient to explain the observed germination patterns. Understanding variation in germination strategies will likely require integrating bet hedging with complementary forces shaping the evolution of delayed germination. 

Bet hedging consists of life history strategies that buffer against environmental variability by trading off immediate and long-term fitness. Delayed germination in annual plants is a classic example of bet hedging and is often invoked to explain low germination fractions. We examined whether bet hedging explains low and variable germination fractions among 20 populations of the winter annual plant Clarkia xantiana ssp. xantiana that experience substantial variation in reproductive success among years. Leveraging 15 years of demographic monitoring and 3 years of field germination experiments, we assessed the fitness consequences of seed banks and compared optimal germination fractions from a density-independent bet-hedging model to observed germination fractions. We did not find consistent evidence of bet hedging or the expected trade-off between arithmetic and geometric mean fitness, though delayed germination increased long-term fitness in 7 of 20 populations. Optimal germination fractions were 2 to 5 times higher than observed germination fractions, and among-population variation in germination fractions was not correlated with risks across the life cycle. Our comprehensive test suggests that bet hedging is insufficient to explain the observed germination patterns. Understanding variation in germination strategies will likely require integrating bet hedging with complementary forces shaping the evolution of delayed germination. 

PremiseWhether drought‐adaptation mechanisms tend to evolve together, evolve independently, or evolve constrained by genetic architecture is incompletely resolved, particularly for water‐relations traits besides gas exchange. We addressed this issue in two subspecies ofClarkia xantiana(Onagraceae), California winter annuals that separated approximately 65,000 years ago and are adapted, partly by differences in flowering time, to native ranges differing in precipitation. MethodsIn these subspecies and in recombinant inbred lines (RILs) from a cross between them, we scored traits related to drought adaptation (timing of seed germination and of flowering, succulence, pressure–volume curve variables) in common environments. ResultsThe subspecies native to more arid environments (parviflora) exhibited slower seed germination in saturated conditions, earlier flowering, and greater succulence, likely indicating superior drought avoidance, drought escape, and dehydration resistance via water storage. The other subspecies (xantiana) had lower osmotic potential at full turgor and lower water potential at turgor loss, implying superior dehydration tolerance. Genetic correlations among RILs suggest facilitated evolution of some trait combinations and independence of others. Where genetic correlations exist, subspecies differences fell along them, with the exception of differences in succulence and turgor loss point. In that case, subspecies difference overcame genetic correlations, possibly reflecting strong selection and/or antagonistic genetic correlations with other traits. ConclusionsClarkia xantianasubspecies’ differ in multiple mechanisms of drought adaptation. Genetic architecture generally does not seem to have constrained the evolution of these mechanisms, and it may have facilitated the evolution of some of trait combinations. 

Sister taxa with distinct phenotypes often occupy contrasting environments in parapatric ranges, yet we generally do not know whether trait divergence reflects spatially-varying selection. We conducted a reciprocal transplant experiment to test whether selection favors “native phenotypes” in two subspecies of Clarkia xantiana (Onagraceae), an annual plant in California. For four quantitative traits that differ between subspecies, we estimated phenotypic selection in subspecies’ exclusive ranges and their contact zone in two consecutive years. We predicted that in the arid, pollinator-scarce eastern region, selection favors phenotypes of the native subspecies parviflora: small leaves, slow leaf growth, early flowering, and diminutive flowers. In the wetter, pollinator-rich, western range of subspecies xantiana, we expected selection for opposite phenotypes. We investigated pollinator contributions to selection by comparing naturally-pollinated and pollen-supplemented individuals. For reproductive traits and for subspecies xantiana, selection generally matched expectations. The contact zone sometimes showed distinctive selection, and in ssp. parviflora selection sometimes favored non-native phenotypes. Pollinators influenced selection on flowering time but not on flower size. Little temporal variation in selection occurred, possibly because of plastic trait responses across years. Though there were exceptions and some causes of selection remain obscure, phenotypic differentiation between subspecies appears to reflect spatially variable selection. 

Abstract Spatial partitioning is a classic hypothesis to explain plant species coexistence, but evidence linking local environmental variation to spatial sorting, demography and species' traits is sparse. If co‐occurring species' performance is optimized differently along environmental gradients because of trait variation, then spatial variation might facilitate coexistence.We used a system of four naturally co‐occurring species ofClarkia(Onagraceae) to ask whether distribution patchiness corresponds to variation in two environmental variables that contribute to hydrological variation. We then reciprocally sowedClarkiainto each patch type and measured demographic rates in the absence of congeneric competition. Species sorted in patches along one or both gradients, and in three of the four species, germination rate in the ‘home’ patch was higher than all other patches.Spatially variable germination resulted in the same three species exhibiting the highest population growth rates in their home patches.Species' trait values related to plant water use, as well as indicators of water stress in home patches, differed among species and corresponded to home patch attributes. However, post‐germination survival did not vary among species or between patch types, and fecundity did not vary spatially.Synthesis. Our research demonstrates the likelihood that within‐community spatial heterogeneity affects plant species coexistence, and presents novel evidence that differential performance in space is explained by what happens in the germination stage. Despite the seemingly obvious link between adult plant water‐use and variation in the environment, our results distinguish the germination stage as important for spatially variable population performance.