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A central problem of materials science is to determine whether a hypothetical material is stable without being synthesized, which is mathematically equivalent to a global optimization problem on a highly nonlinear and multimodal potential energy surface (PES). This optimization problem poses multiple outstanding challenges, including the exceedingly high dimensionality of the PES, and that PES must be constructed from a reliable, sophisticated, parameters-free, and thus very expensive computational method, for which density functional theory (DFT) is an example. DFT is a quantum mechanics-based method that can predict, among other things, the total potential energy of a given configuration of atoms. DFT, although accurate, is computationally expensive. In this work, we propose a novel expansion-exploration-exploitation framework to find the global minimum of the PES. Starting from a few atomic configurations, this “known” space is expanded to construct a big candidate set. The expansion begins in a nonadaptive manner, where new configurations are added without their potential energy being considered. A novel feature of this step is that it tends to generate a space-filling design without the knowledge of the boundaries of the domain space. If needed, the nonadaptive expansion of the space of configurations is followed by adaptive expansion, where “promising regions” of the domain space (those with low-energy configurations) are further expanded. Once a candidate set of configurations is obtained, it is simultaneously explored and exploited using Bayesian optimization to find the global minimum. The methodology is demonstrated using a problem of finding the most stable crystal structure of aluminum. History: Kwok Tsui served as the senior editor for this article. Funding: The authors acknowledge a U.S. National Science Foundation Grant DMREF-1921873 and XSEDE through Grant DMR170031. Data Ethics & Reproducibility Note: The code capsule is available on Code Ocean at https://codeocean.com/capsule/3366149/tree and in the e-Companion to this article (available at https://doi.org/10.1287/ijds.2023.0028 ). 

Motivated by the parameter identification problem of a reaction-diffusion transport model in a vapor phase infiltration processes, we propose a Bayesian optimization procedure for solving the inverse problem that aims to find an input setting that achieves a desired functional output. The proposed algorithm improves over the standard single-objective Bayesian optimization by (i) utilizing the generalized chi-square distribution as a more appropriate predictive distribution for the squared distance objective function in the inverse problems, and (ii) applying functional principal component analysis to reduce the dimensionality of the functional response data, which allows for efficient approximation of the predictive distribution and the subsequent computation of the expected improvement acquisition function.