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Abstract The physical mechanisms responsible for bar formation and destruction in galaxies remain a subject of debate. While we have gained valuable insight into how bars form and evolve from isolated idealized simulations, in the cosmological domain, galactic bars evolve in complex environments, with mergers and gas accretion events occurring in the presence of the turbulent interstellar medium with multiple star formation episodes, in addition to coupling with their host galaxies’ dark matter halos. We investigate the bar formation in 13 Milky Way–mass galaxies from the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE-2) cosmological zoom-in simulations. 8 of the 13 simulated galaxies form bars at some point during their history: three from tidal interactions and five from internal evolution of the disk. The bars in FIRE-2 are generally shorter than the corotation radius (mean bar radius ∼1.53 kpc), have a wide range of pattern speeds (36–97 km s⁻¹kpc⁻¹), and live for a wide range of dynamical times (2–160 bar rotations). We find that the bar formation in FIRE-2 galaxies is influenced by satellite interactions and the stellar-to-dark-matter mass ratio in the inner galaxy, but neither is a sufficient condition for bar formation. Bar formation is more likely to occur, with the bars formed being stronger and longer-lived, if the disks are kinematically cold; galaxies with high central gas fractions and/or vigorous star formation, on the other hand, tend to form weaker bars. In the case of the FIRE-2 galaxies, these properties combine to produce ellipsoidal bars with strengthsA₂/A₀∼ 0.1–0.2. 

Abstract Measurements of the accelerations of stars enabled by time-series extreme-precision spectroscopic observations, pulsar timing, and eclipsing binary stars in the solar neighborhood offer insights into the mass distribution of the Milky Way that do not rely on traditional equilibrium modeling. Given the measured accelerations, we can determine a total mass density and infer the amount of dark matter (DM) by accounting for the mass in stars, gas, and dust. Leveraging FIRE-2 simulations of Milky Way–mass galaxies we compare vertical acceleration profiles between cold DM (CDM) and self-interacting DM (SIDM) with a constant cross section of 1 cm²g⁻¹across three halos with diverse assembly histories. Notably, significant asymmetries in vertical acceleration profiles near the midplane at fixed radii are observed in both CDM and SIDM, particularly in halos recently affected by mergers with satellites of Sagittarius/SMC-like masses or greater. These asymmetries offer a unique window into exploring the merger history of a galaxy. We show that SIDM halos manifest a more oblate shape and consistently exhibit higher local stellar and DM densities and steeper vertical acceleration gradients, up to 10%–30% steeper near the solar neighborhood. However, similar magnitude changes can arise from azimuthal variations in the baryonic components at a fixed radius and external influences like mergers, making it difficult to distinguish between CDM and SIDM using acceleration measurements in a single galaxy. 

Abstract The third data release (DR3) of Gaia has provided a fivefold increase in the number of radial velocity measurements of stars, as well as a stark improvement in parallax and proper motion measurements. To help with studies that seek to test models and interpret Gaia DR3, we present nine Gaia synthetic surveys, based on three solar positions in three Milky Way-mass galaxies of theLattesuite of theFire-2 cosmological simulations. These synthetic surveys match the selection function, radial velocity measurements, and photometry of Gaia DR3, adapting the code baseAnanke, previously used to match the Gaia DR2 release by Sanderson et al. The synthetic surveys are publicly available and can be found athttp://ananke.hub.yt/. Similarly to the previous release ofAnanke, these surveys are based on cosmological simulations and thus are able to model nonequilibrium dynamical effects, making them a useful tool in testing and interpreting Gaia DR3. 

ABSTRACT Understanding the evolution of satellite galaxies of the Milky Way (MW) and M31 requires modelling their orbital histories across cosmic time. Many works that model satellite orbits incorrectly assume or approximate that the host halo gravitational potential is fixed in time and is spherically symmetric or axisymmetric. We rigorously benchmark the accuracy of such models against the FIRE-2 cosmological baryonic simulations of MW/M31-mass haloes. When a typical surviving satellite fell in ($$3.4\!-\!9.7\, \rm {Gyr}$$ ago), the host halo mass and radius were typically 26–86 per cent of their values today, respectively. Most of this mass growth of the host occurred at small distances, $$r\lesssim 50\, \rm {kpc}$$, opposite to dark matter only simulations, which experience almost no growth at small radii. We fit a near-exact axisymmetric gravitational potential to each host at z = 0 and backward integrate the orbits of satellites in this static potential, comparing against the true orbit histories in the simulations. Orbital energy and angular momentum are not well conserved throughout an orbital history, varying by 25 per cent from their current values already $$1.6\!-\!4.7\, \rm {Gyr}$$ ago. Most orbital properties are minimally biased, ≲10 per cent, when averaged across the satellite population as a whole. However, for a single satellite, the uncertainties are large: recent orbital properties, like the most recent pericentre distance, typically are ≈20 per cent uncertain, while earlier events, like the minimum pericentre or the infall time, are ≈40–80 per cent uncertain. Furthermore, these biases and uncertainties are lower limits, given that we use near-exact host mass profiles at z = 0. 

Abstract We analyse stellar streams in action-angle coordinates combined with recent local direct acceleration measurements to provide joint constraints on the potential of our galaxy. Our stream analysis uses the Kullback–Leibler divergence with a likelihood analysis based on the two-point correlation function. We provide joint constraints from pulsar accelerations and stellar streams for local and global parameters that describe the potential of the Milky Way (MW). Our goal is to build an “acceleration ladder,” where direct acceleration measurements that are currently limited in dynamic range are combined with indirect techniques that can access a much larger volume of the MW. To constrain the MW potential with stellar streams, we consider the Palomar 5, Orphan, Nyx, Helmi, and GD1 streams. Of the potential models that we have considered here, the preferred potential for the streams is a two-component Staeckel potential. We also compare the vertical accelerations from stellar streams and pulsar timing, defining the function $f\left(z\right)={\alpha }_{1\mathrm{pulsar}}z-\frac{\partial \mathrm{\Phi }}{\partial z}$, where Φ is the MW potential determined from stellar streams andα_{1 pulsar}zis the vertical acceleration determined from pulsar timing observations. Our analysis indicates that the Oort limit determined from streams is consistently (regardless of the choice of potential) lower than that determined from pulsar timing observations. The calibration we have derived here may be used to correct the estimate of the acceleration from stellar streams. 

ABSTRACT A variety of observational campaigns seek to test dark matter models by measuring dark matter subhaloes at low masses. Despite their predicted lack of stars, these subhaloes may be detectable through gravitational lensing or via their gravitational perturbations on stellar streams. To set measurable expectations for subhalo populations within Lambda cold dark matter, we examine 11 Milky Way (MW)-mass haloes from the FIRE-2 baryonic simulations, quantifying the counts and orbital fluxes for subhaloes with properties relevant to stellar stream interactions: masses down to $$10^{6}\, \text{M}_\odot$$, distances ≲50 kpc of the galactic centre, across z = 0 − 1 (tlookback = 0–8 Gyr). We provide fits to our results and their dependence on subhalo mass, distance, and lookback time, for use in (semi)analytical models. A typical MW-mass halo contains ≈16 subhaloes $$\gt 10^{7}\, \text{M}_\odot$$ (≈1 subhalo $$\gt 10^{8}\, \text{M}_\odot$$) within 50 kpc at z ≈ 0. We compare our results with dark matter-only versions of the same simulations: because they lack a central galaxy potential, they overpredict subhalo counts by 2–10×, more so at smaller distances. Subhalo counts around a given MW-mass galaxy declined over time, being ≈10× higher at z = 1 than at z ≈ 0. Subhaloes have nearly isotropic orbital velocity distributions at z ≈ 0. Across our simulations, we also identified 4 analogues of Large Magellanic Cloud satellite passages; these analogues enhance subhalo counts by 1.4–2.1 times, significantly increasing the expected subhalo population around the MW today. Our results imply an interaction rate of ∼5 per Gyr for a stream like GD-1, sufficient to make subhalo–stream interactions a promising method of measuring dark subhaloes. 

ABSTRACT Observational studies are finding stars believed to be relics of the earliest stages of hierarchical mass assembly of the Milky Way (i.e. proto-galaxy). In this work, we contextualize these findings by studying the masses, ages, spatial distributions, morphology, kinematics, and chemical compositions of proto-galaxy populations from the 13 Milky Way (MW)-mass galaxies from the FIRE-2 cosmological zoom-in simulations. Our findings indicate that proto-Milky Way populations: (i) can have a stellar mass range between 1 × 108 < M⋆ < 2 × 1010 [M⊙], a virial mass range between 3 × 1010 < M⋆ < 6 × 1011 [M⊙], and be as young as 8 ≲ Age ≲ 12.8 [Gyr] (1 ≲ z ≲ 6); (ii) are pre-dominantly centrally concentrated, with $$\sim 50~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$$ of the stars contained within 5–10 kpc; (iii) on average show weak but systematic net rotation in the plane of the host’s disc at z = 0 (i.e. 0.25 ≲ 〈κ/κdisc〉 ≲ 0.8); (iv) present [α/Fe]-[Fe/H] compositions that overlap with the metal-poor tail of the host’s old disc; and (v) tend to assemble slightly earlier in Local Group-like environments than in systems in isolation. Interestingly, we find that $$\sim 60~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$$ of the proto-Milky Way galaxies are comprised by 1 dominant system (1/5 ≲M⋆/M⋆, proto-MilkyWay≲ 4/5) and 4–5 lower mass systems (M⋆/M⋆, proto-MilkyWay≲ 1/10); the other $$\sim 40~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$$ are comprised by 2 dominant systems and 3–4 lower mass systems. These massive/dominant proto-Milky Way fragments can be distinguished from the lower mass ones in chemical-kinematic samples, but appear (qualitatively) indistinguishable from one another. Our results could help observational studies disentangle if the Milky Way formed from one or two dominant systems. 

Abstract Observations of the Milky Way’s low- α disk show that several element abundances correlate with age at fixed metallicity, with unique slopes and small scatters around the age–[X/Fe] relations. In this study, we turn to simulations to explore the age–[X/Fe] relations for the elements C, N, O, Mg, Si, S, and Ca that are traced in a FIRE-2 cosmological zoom-in simulation of a Milky Way–like galaxy, m12i, and understand what physical conditions give rise to the observed age–[X/Fe] trends. We first explore the distributions of mono-age populations in their birth and current locations, [Fe/H], and [X/Fe], and find evidence for inside-out radial growth for stars with ages <7 Gyr. We then examine the age–[X/Fe] relations across m12i’s disk and find that the direction of the trends agrees with observations, apart from C, O, and Ca, with remarkably small intrinsic scatters, σ int (0.01 − 0.04 dex). This σ int measured in the simulations is also metallicity dependent, with σ int ≈ 0.025 dex at [Fe/H] = −0.25 dex versus σ int ≈ 0.015 dex at [Fe/H] = 0 dex, and a similar metallicity dependence is seen in the GALAH survey for the elements in common. Additionally, we find that σ int is higher in the inner galaxy, where stars are older and formed in less chemically homogeneous environments. The age–[X/Fe] relations and the small scatter around them indicate that simulations capture similar chemical enrichment variance as observed in the Milky Way, arising from stars sharing similar element abundances at a given birth place and time. 

Abstract The Galactic bulge is critical to our understanding of the Milky Way. However, due to the lack of reliable stellar distances, the structure and kinematics of the bulge/bar beyond the Galactic center have remained largely unexplored. Here, we present a method to measure distances of luminous red giants using a period–amplitude–luminosity relation anchored to the Large Magellanic Cloud, with random uncertainties of 10%–15% and systematic errors below 1%–2%. We apply this method to data from the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment to measure distances to 190,302 stars in the Galactic bulge and beyond out to 20 kpc. Using this sample, we measure a distance to the Galactic center ofR₀= 8108 ± 106_stat± 93_syspc, consistent with direct measurements of stars orbiting Sgr A*. We cross-match our distance catalog with Gaia DR3 and use the subset of 39,566 overlapping stars to provide the first constraints on the Milky Way’s velocity field (V_R,V_ϕ,V_z) beyond the Galactic center. We show that theV_Rquadrupole from the bar’s near side is reflected with respect to the Galactic center, indicating that the bar is bisymmetric and aligned with the inner disk. We also find that the vertical heightV_Zmap has no major structure in the region of the Galactic bulge, which is inconsistent with a current episode of bar buckling. Finally, we demonstrate withN-body simulations that distance uncertainty plays a factor in the alignment of the major and kinematic axes of the bar, necessitating caution when interpreting results for distant stars. 

Abstract In the Λ-Cold Dark Matter model of the universe, galaxies form in part through accreting satellite systems. Previous works have built an understanding of the signatures of these processes contained within galactic stellar halos. This work revisits that picture using seven Milky Way–like galaxies in the Latte suite of FIRE-2 cosmological simulations. The resolution of these simulations allows a comparison of contributions from satellites above M * ≳ 10 × 7 M ⊙ , enabling the analysis of observable properties for disrupted satellites in a fully self-consistent and cosmological context. Our results show that the time of accretion and the stellar mass of an accreted satellite are fundamental parameters that in partnership dictate the resulting spatial distribution, orbital energy, and [ α /Fe]-[Fe/H] compositions of the stellar debris of such mergers at present day. These parameters also govern the resulting dynamical state of an accreted galaxy at z = 0, leading to the expectation that the inner regions of the stellar halo ( R GC ≲ 30 kpc) should contain fully phase-mixed debris from both lower- and higher-mass satellites. In addition, we find that a significant fraction of the lower-mass satellites accreted at early times deposit debris in the outer halo ( R GC > 50 kpc) that are not fully phased-mixed, indicating that they could be identified in kinematic surveys. Our results suggest that, as future surveys become increasingly able to map the outer halo of our Galaxy, they may reveal the remnants of long-dead dwarf galaxies whose counterparts are too faint to be seen in situ in higher-redshift surveys.