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Ciguatera poisoning (CP) is the most common form of phycotoxin-borne seafood poisoning globally, affecting thousands of people on an annual basis. It most commonly occurs in residential fish of coral reefs, which consume toxin-laden algae, detritus, and reef animals. The class of toxins that cause CP, ciguatoxins (CTXs), originate in benthic, epiphytic dinoflagellates of the genera, Gambierdiscus and Fukuyoa, which are consumed by herbivores and detritivores that facilitate food web transfer. A number of factors have hindered adequate environmental monitoring and seafood surveillance for ciguatera including the low concentrations in which the toxins are found in seafood causing illness (sub-ppb), a lack of knowledge on the toxicity equivalence of other CTXs and contribution of other benthic algal toxins to the disease, and the limited availability of quantified toxin standards and reference materials. While progress has been made on the identification of the dinoflagellate taxa and toxins responsible for CP, more effort is needed to better understand the dynamics of toxin transfer into reef food webs in order to implement a practical monitoring program for CP. Here, we present a conceptual model that utilizes empirical field data (temperature, Gambierdiscus cell densities, macrophyte cover) in concert with other published studies (grazing rates and preference) to produce modeling outputs that suggest approaches that may be beneficial to developing monitoring programs: 1) targeting specific macrophytes for Gambierdiscus and toxin measurements to monitor toxin levels at the base of the food web (i.e., toxin loading); and 2) adjusting these targets across sites and over seasons. Coupling this approach with other methodologies being incorporated into monitoring programs (artificial substrates; FISH probes; toxin screening) may provide an “early warning” system to develop strategic responses to potential CP flare ups in the future. 

Ciguatera Poisoning (CP) is a widespread and complex poisoning syndrome caused by the consumption of fish or invertebrates contaminated with a suite of potent neurotoxins collectively known as ciguatoxins (CTXs), which are produced by certain benthic dinoflagellates species in the genera Gambierdiscus and Fukuyoa. Due to the complex nature of this HAB problem, along with a poor understanding of toxin production and entry in the coral reef food web, the development of monitoring, management, and forecasting approaches for CP has lagged behind those available for other HAB syndromes. Over the past two decades, renewed research on the taxonomy, physiology, and toxicology of CP-causing dinoflagellates has advanced our understanding of the species diversity that exists within these genera, including identification of several highly toxic species (so called “superbugs”) that likely contribute disproportionately to ciguatoxins entering coral reef food webs. The recent development of approaches for molecular analysis of field samples now provide the means to investigate in situ community composition, enabling characterization of spatio-temporal species dynamics, linkages between toxic species abundance and toxin flux, and the risk of ciguatoxin prevalence in fish. In this study we used species-specific fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) probes to investigate Gambierdiscus species composition and dynamics in St. Thomas (USVI) and the Florida Keys (USA) over multiple years of sampling (2018-2020). Within each location, samples were collected seasonally from several sites comprising varying depths, habitats, and algal substrates to characterize community structure over small spatial scales and across different host macrophytes. This approach enabled the quantitative determination of communities over spatiotemporal gradients, as well as the selective enumeration of species known to exhibit high toxicity, such as Gambierdiscus silvae. The investigation found differing community structure between St. Thomas and Florida Keys sites, driven in part by differences in the distribution of toxin producing species G. silvae and G. belizeanus, which were present throughout sampling sites in St. Thomas but scarce or absent in the Florida Keys. This finding is significant given the high toxicity of G. silvae, and may help explain differences in fish toxicity and CP incidence between St. Thomas and Florida. 

Abstract Limited dispersal of individuals between generations results in isolation by distance, in which individuals further apart in space tend to be less related. Classic models of isolation by distance assume that dispersal distances are drawn from a thin-tailed distribution and predict that the proportion of the genome that is identical by descent between a pair of individuals should decrease exponentially with the spatial separation between them. However, in many natural populations, individuals occasionally disperse over very long distances. In this work, we use mathematical analysis and coalescent simulations to study the effect of long-range (power-law) dispersal on patterns of isolation by distance. We find that it leads to power-law decay of identity-by-descent at large distances with the same exponent as dispersal. We also find that broad power-law dispersal produces another, shallow power-law decay of identity-by-descent at short distances. These results suggest that the distribution of long-range dispersal events could be estimated from sequencing large population samples taken from a wide range of spatial scales. 

Climate change is radically altering coral reef ecosystems, mainly through increasingly frequent and severe bleaching events. Yet, some reefs have exhibited higher thermal tolerance after bleaching severely the first time. To understand changes in thermal tolerance in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP), we compiled four decades of temperature, coral cover, coral bleaching, and mortality data, including three mass bleaching events during the 1982 to 1983, 1997 to 1998 and 2015 to 2016 El Niño heatwaves. Higher heat resistance in later bleaching events was detected in the dominant framework-building genus, Pocillopora, while other coral taxa exhibited similar susceptibility across events. Genetic analyses of Pocillopora spp . colonies and their algal symbionts (2014 to 2016) revealed that one of two Pocillopora lineages present in the region ( Pocillopora “ type 1”) increased its association with thermotolerant algal symbionts ( Durusdinium glynnii ) during the 2015 to 2016 heat stress event. This lineage experienced lower bleaching and mortality compared with Pocillopora “type 3”, which did not acquire D. glynnii . Under projected thermal stress, ETP reefs may be able to preserve high coral cover through the 2060s or later, mainly composed of Pocillopora colonies that associate with D. glynnii . However, although the low-diversity, high-cover reefs of the ETP could illustrate a potential functional state for some future reefs, this state may only be temporary unless global greenhouse gas emissions and resultant global warming are curtailed. 

Abstract Thermal stress is expected to compromise the persistence of tropical corals throughout their biogeographic ranges, making many reefs inhospitable to corals by the end of the century. We integrated models of local predictions of thermal stress throughout the coming century, coral larval dispersal, and the persistence of a coral’s metapopulation(s) in the Caribbean to investigate broad trends in metapopulation fragmentation and decline. As coral reef patches become inhospitable throughout the next century, the metapopulation of Orbicella annularis is predicted to fragment, with sub-networks centered around highly connected patches and thermal refuges. Some of these are predicted to include the reefs of Colombia, Panama, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, Southern and Northern Cuba, Haiti, and the Bahamas. Unknown coral population demographic parameters, such as lifetime egg production and stock-recruitment rates, limit the model’s predictions; however, a sensitivity analysis demonstrates that broadscale patterns of fragmentation and metapopulation collapse before the end of the century are consistent across a range of potential parameterizations. Despite dire predictions, the model highlights the potential value in protecting and restoring coral populations at strategic locations that are highly connected and/or influential to persistence. Coordinated conservation activities that support local resilience at low coral cover have the potential to stave off metapopulation collapse for decades, buying valuable time. Thermal refuges are linchpins of metapopulation persistence during moderate thermal stress, and targeted conservation or restoration that supports connectivity between these refuges by enhancing local population growth or sexual propagation may be critically important to species conservation on coral reefs. 

Stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD) was first observed in the United States Virgin Islands in January 2019 on a reef at Flat Cay off the island of St. Thomas. A year after its emergence, the disease had spread to several reefs around St. Thomas causing significant declines in overall coral cover. Rates of tissue loss are an important metric in the study of coral disease ecology, as they can inform many aspects of etiology such as disease susceptibility and resistance among species, and provide critical parameters for modeling the effects of disease among heterogenous reef communities. The present study quantified tissue loss rates attributed to SCTLD among six abundant reef building species ( Colpophyllia natans, Montastraea cavernosa, Diploria labyrinthiformis, Pseudodiploria strigosa, Orbicella annularis , and Porites astreoides ). Field-based 3D models of diseased corals, taken approximately weekly, indicated that the absolute rates of tissue loss from SCTLD slowed through time, corresponding with the accumulation of thermal stress that led to mass bleaching. Absolute tissue loss rates were comparable among species prior to the bleaching event but diverged during and remained different after the bleaching event. Proportional tissue loss rates did not vary among species or through time, but there was considerable variability among M. cavernosa colonies. SCTLD poses a significant threat to reefs across the Caribbean due to its persistence through time, wide range of susceptible coral species, and unprecedented tissue loss rates. Intervention and management efforts should be increased during and immediately following thermal stress events in order maximize resource distribution when disease prevalence is decreased.