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  1. Abstract The Millimeter-wave Intensity Mapping Experiment (mmIME) recently reported a detection of excess spatial fluctuations at a wavelength of 3 mm, which can be attributed to unresolved emission of several CO rotational transitions between z ∼ 1 and 5. We study the implications of these data for the high-redshift interstellar medium using a suite of state-of-the-art semianalytic simulations that have successfully reproduced many other submillimeter line observations across the relevant redshift range. We find that the semianalytic predictions are mildly in tension with the mmIME result, with a predicted CO power ∼3.5 σ below what was observed. We explore some simple modifications to the models that could resolve this tension. Increasing the molecular gas abundance at the relevant redshifts to ∼10 8 M ⊙ Mpc −3 , a value well above that obtained from directly imaged sources, would resolve the discrepancy, as would assuming a CO–H 2 conversion factor α CO of ∼1.5 M ⊙ K −1 (km s −1 ) −1 pc 2 , a value somewhat lower than is commonly assumed. We go on to demonstrate that these conclusions are quite sensitive to the detailed assumptions of our simulations, highlighting the need for more careful modeling efforts asmore »more intensity mapping data become available.« less
    Free, publicly-accessible full text available April 1, 2023
  2. Abstract Submillimeter emission lines produced by the interstellar medium (ISM) are strong tracers of star formation and are some of the main targets of line intensity mapping (LIM) surveys. In this work we present an empirical multiline emission model that simultaneously covers the mean, scatter, and correlations of [C ii ], CO J = 1–0 to J = 5–4, and [C i ] lines in the redshift range 1 ≤ z ≤ 9. We assume that the galaxy ISM line emission luminosity versus halo mass relations can be described by double power laws with redshift-dependent lognormal scatter. The model parameters are then derived by fitting to the state-of-the-art semianalytic simulation results that have successfully reproduced multiple submillimeter line observations at 0 ≤ z ≲ 6. We cross-check the line emission statistics predicted by the semianalytic simulation and our empirical model, finding that at z ≥ 1 our model reproduces the simulated line intensities with fractional error less than about 10%. The fractional difference is less than 25% for the power spectra. Grounded on physically motivated and self-consistent galaxy simulations, this computationally efficient model will be helpful in forecasting ISM emission-line statistics for upcoming LIM surveys.
    Free, publicly-accessible full text available April 1, 2023
  3. Abstract Traditional large-scale models of reionization usually employ simple deterministic relations between halo mass and luminosity to predict how reionization proceeds. We here examine the impact on modeling reionization of using more detailed models for the ionizing sources as identified within the 100 h −1 Mpc cosmological hydrodynamic simulation S imba , coupled with postprocessed radiative transfer. Comparing with simple (one-to-one) models, the main difference with using S imba sources is the scatter in the relation between dark matter halos and star formation, and hence ionizing emissivity. We find that, at the power spectrum level, the ionization morphology remains mostly unchanged, regardless of the variability in the number of sources or escape fraction. In particular, the power spectrum shape remains unaffected and its amplitude changes slightly by less than 5%–10%, throughout reionization, depending on the scale and neutral fraction. Our results show that simplified models of ionizing sources remain viable to efficiently model the structure of reionization on cosmological scales, although the precise progress of reionization requires accounting for the scatter induced by astrophysical effects.
    Free, publicly-accessible full text available May 1, 2023
  4. Abstract Uncertain feedback processes in galaxies affect the distribution of matter, currently limiting the power of weak lensing surveys. If we can identify cosmological statistics that are robust against these uncertainties, or constrain these effects by other means, then we can enhance the power of current and upcoming observations from weak lensing surveys such as DES, Euclid, the Rubin Observatory, and the Roman Space Telescope. In this work, we investigate the potential of the electron density auto-power spectrum as a robust probe of cosmology and baryonic feedback. We use a suite of (magneto-)hydrodynamic simulations from the CAMELS project and perform an idealized analysis to forecast statistical uncertainties on a limited set of cosmological and physically-motivated astrophysical parameters. We find that the electron number density auto-correlation, measurable through either kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich observations or through Fast Radio Burst dispersion measures, provides tight constraints on Ω m and the mean baryon fraction in intermediate-mass halos, f̅ bar . By obtaining an empirical measure for the associated systematic uncertainties, we find these constraints to be largely robust to differences in baryonic feedback models implemented in hydrodynamic simulations. We further discuss the main caveats associated with our analysis, and point out possible directions for futuremore »work.« less
    Free, publicly-accessible full text available April 1, 2023
  5. Abstract We present the empirical dust attenuation (EDA) framework—a flexible prescription for assigning realistic dust attenuation to simulated galaxies based on their physical properties. We use the EDA to forward model synthetic observations for three state-of-the-art large-scale cosmological hydrodynamical simulations: SIMBA, IllustrisTNG, and EAGLE. We then compare the optical and UV color–magnitude relations, ( g − r ) − M r and (far-UV −near-UV) − M r , of the simulations to a M r < − 20 and UV complete Sloan Digital Sky Survey galaxy sample using likelihood-free inference. Without dust, none of the simulations match observations, as expected. With the EDA, however, we can reproduce the observed color–magnitude with all three simulations. Furthermore, the attenuation curves predicted by our dust prescription are in good agreement with the observed attenuation–slope relations and attenuation curves of star-forming galaxies. However, the EDA does not predict star-forming galaxies with low A V since simulated star-forming galaxies are intrinsically much brighter than observations. Additionally, the EDA provides, for the first time, predictions on the attenuation curves of quiescent galaxies, which are challenging to measure observationally. Simulated quiescent galaxies require shallower attenuation curves with lower amplitude than star-forming galaxies. The EDA, combined with forwardmore »modeling, provides an effective approach for shedding light on dust in galaxies and probing hydrodynamical simulations. This work also illustrates a major limitation in comparing galaxy formation models: by adjusting dust attenuation, simulations that predict significantly different galaxy populations can reproduce the same UV and optical observations.« less
    Free, publicly-accessible full text available February 1, 2023
  6. Abstract Physical and chemical properties of the interstellar medium (ISM) at subgalactic (∼kiloparsec) scales play an indispensable role in controlling the ability of gas to form stars. In this paper, we use the TNG50 cosmological simulation to explore the physical parameter space of eight resolved ISM properties in star-forming regions to constrain the areas of this hyperspace where most star-forming environments exist. We deconstruct our simulated galaxies spanning a wide range of mass ( M ⋆ = 10 7 –10 11 M ⊙ ) and redshift (0 ≤ z ≤ 3) into kiloparsec-sized regions and statistically analyze the gas/stellar surface densities, gas metallicity, vertical stellar velocity dispersion, epicyclic frequency, and dark-matter volumetric density representative of each region in the context of their star formation activity and environment (radial galactocentric location). By examining the star formation rate (SFR) weighted distributions of these properties, we show that stars primarily form in two distinct environmental regimes, which are brought about by an underlying bicomponent radial SFR profile in galaxies. We examine how the relative prominence of these regimes depends on galaxy mass and cosmic time. We also compare our findings with those from integral field spectroscopy observations and find similarities as well asmore »departures. Further, using dimensionality reduction, we characterize the aforementioned hyperspace to reveal a high degree of multicollinearity in relationships among ISM properties that drive the distribution of star formation at kiloparsec scales. Based on this, we show that a reduced 3D representation underpinned by a multivariate radius relationship is sufficient to capture most of the variance in the original 8D space.« less
    Free, publicly-accessible full text available February 1, 2023
  7. ABSTRACT We present a novel set of stellar feedback models, implemented in the moving-mesh code arepo, designed for galaxy formation simulations with near-parsec (or better) resolution. These include explicit sampling of stars from the IMF, allowing feedback to be linked to individual massive stars, an improved method for the modelling of H ii regions, photoelectric (PE) heating from a spatially varying FUV field and supernova feedback. We perform a suite of 32 simulations of isolated $M_\mathrm{vir} = 10^{10}\, \mathrm{M_\odot }$ galaxies with a baryonic mass resolution of $20\, \mathrm{M_\odot }$ in order to study the non-linear coupling of the different feedback channels. We find that photoionization (PI) and supernova feedback are both independently capable of regulating star formation to the same level, while PE heating is inefficient. PI produces a considerably smoother star formation history than supernovae. When all feedback channels are combined, the additional suppression of star formation rates is minor. However, outflow rates are substantially reduced relative to the supernova only simulations. We show that this is directly caused by a suppression of supernova clustering by the PI feedback, disrupting star-forming clouds prior to the first supernovae. We demonstrate that our results are robust to variations of our starmore »formation prescription, feedback models and the baryon fraction of the galaxy. Our results also imply that the burstiness of star formation and the mass loading of outflows may be overestimated if the adopted star particle mass is considerably larger than the mass of individual stars because this imposes a minimum cluster size.« less
  8. ABSTRACT In large-scale hydrodynamical cosmological simulations, the fate of massive galaxies is mainly dictated by the modelling of feedback from active galactic nuclei (AGNs). The amount of energy released by AGN feedback is proportional to the mass that has been accreted on to the black holes (BHs), but the exact subgrid modelling of AGN feedback differs in all simulations. While modern simulations reliably produce populations of quiescent massive galaxies at z ≤ 2, it is also crucial to assess the similarities and differences of the responsible AGN populations. Here, we compare the AGN populations of the Illustris, TNG100, TNG300, Horizon-AGN, EAGLE, and SIMBA simulations. The AGN luminosity function (LF) varies significantly between simulations. Although in agreement with current observational constraints at z = 0, at higher redshift the agreement of the LFs deteriorates with most simulations producing too many AGNs of $L_{\rm x, 2\!-\!10 \, keV}\sim 10^{43\!-\!44}\, \rm erg\, s^{-1}$. AGN feedback in some simulations prevents the existence of any bright AGN with $L_{\rm x, 2\!-\!10 \, keV}\geqslant 10^{45}\rm \,erg\, s^{-1}$ (although this is sensitive to AGN variability), and leads to smaller fractions of AGN in massive galaxies than in the observations at z ≤ 2. We find that all themore »simulations fail at producing a number density of AGN in good agreement with observational constraints for both luminous ($L_{\rm x, 2\!-\!10 \, keV}\sim 10^\text{43-45}\, \rm erg\, s^{-1}$) and fainter ($L_{\rm x, 2\!-\!10 \, keV}\sim 10^\text{42-43}\, \rm erg\, s^{-1}$) AGNs and at both low and high redshifts. These differences can aid us in improving future BH and galaxy subgrid modelling in simulations. Upcoming X-ray missions (e.g. Athena, AXIS, and LynX) will bring faint AGNs to light and new powerful constraints. After accounting for AGN obscuration, we find that the predicted number density of detectable AGNs in future surveys spans at least one order of magnitude across the simulations, at any redshift.« less
  9. Abstract We present the Cosmology and Astrophysics with Machine Learning Simulations (CAMELS) Multifield Data set (CMD), a collection of hundreds of thousands of 2D maps and 3D grids containing many different properties of cosmic gas, dark matter, and stars from more than 2000 distinct simulated universes at several cosmic times. The 2D maps and 3D grids represent cosmic regions that span ∼100 million light-years and have been generated from thousands of state-of-the-art hydrodynamic and gravity-only N -body simulations from the CAMELS project. Designed to train machine-learning models, CMD is the largest data set of its kind containing more than 70 TB of data. In this paper we describe CMD in detail and outline a few of its applications. We focus our attention on one such task, parameter inference, formulating the problems we face as a challenge to the community. We release all data and provide further technical details at .
    Free, publicly-accessible full text available April 1, 2023
  10. ABSTRACT We characterize mass, momentum, energy, and metal outflow rates of multiphase galactic winds in a suite of FIRE-2 cosmological ‘zoom-in’ simulations from the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) project. We analyse simulations of low-mass dwarfs, intermediate-mass dwarfs, Milky Way-mass haloes, and high-redshift massive haloes. Consistent with previous work, we find that dwarfs eject about 100 times more gas from their interstellar medium (ISM) than they form in stars, while this mass ‘loading factor’ drops below one in massive galaxies. Most of the mass is carried by the hot phase (>105 K) in massive haloes and the warm phase (103−105 K) in dwarfs; cold outflows (<103 K) are negligible except in high-redshift dwarfs. Energy, momentum, and metal loading factors from the ISM are of order unity in dwarfs and significantly lower in more massive haloes. Hot outflows have 2−5 × higher specific energy than needed to escape from the gravitational potential of dwarf haloes; indeed, in dwarfs, the mass, momentum, and metal outflow rates increase with radius whereas energy is roughly conserved, indicating swept up halo gas. Burst-averaged mass loading factors tend to be larger during more powerful star formation episodes and when the inner halo is not virialized, but we seemore »effectively no trend with the dense ISM gas fraction. We discuss how our results can guide future controlled numerical experiments that aim to elucidate the key parameters governing galactic winds and the resulting associated preventative feedback.« less