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High latitude upper atmospheric inter‐hemispheric asymmetry (IHA) tends to be enhanced during geomagnetic storms, which may be due to the complex spatiotemporal changes and magnitude modifications in field aligned currents (FACs) and particle precipitation (PP). However, the relative contribution of FACs and PP to IHA in high‐latitude forcing and energy is not well understood. The IHA during the 2015 St. Patrick’s Day storm has been investigated using the global ionosphere thermosphere model (GITM), driven by FACs from the Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE) and PP from the Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics (AMIE). A comprehensive study of the (a) relative contributions of FACs and PP to electric potential and Joule heating and (b) sensitivity of electric potential and Joule heating to the changes in magnitude and distribution of FACs and PP is presented. The results indicate that FACs lead to larger potential and Joule heating changes compared with PP. The spatial variations of potential and Joule heating are also affected by variation in FACs. As for asymmetric magnitude and distribution, it is found that electric potential and Joule heating are more sensitive to changes in the distribution of FACs and PP than the magnitude of FACs and PP. A new spatial asymmetry index (SAI) is introduced, which reveals spatial asymmetric details that are often overlooked by previous studies. This sensitivity study reveals the relative contributions in high‐latitude forcing and emphasizes the importance of obtaining accurate FACs and PP in both hemispheres.

 

Understanding of Earth’s geomagnetic environment is critical to mitigating the space weather impacts caused by disruptive geoelectric fields in power lines and other conductors on Earth’s surface. These impacts are the result of a chain of processes driven by the solar wind and linking Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere, thermosphere and Earth’s surface. Tremendous progress has been made over the last two decades in understanding the solar wind driving mechanisms, the coupling mechanisms connecting the magnetically controlled regions of near-Earth space, and the impacts of these collective processes on human technologies on Earth’s surface. Studies of solar wind drivers have been focused on understanding the responses of the geomagnetic environment to spatial and temporal variations in the solar wind associated with Coronal Mass Ejections, Corotating Interaction Regions, Interplanetary Shocks, High-Speed Streams, and other interplanetary magnetic field structures. Increasingly sophisticated numerical models are able to simulate the magnetospheric response to the solar wind forcing associated with these structures. Magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere coupling remains a great challenge, although new observations and sophisticated models that can assimilate disparate data sets have improved the ability to specify the electrodynamic properties of the high latitude ionosphere. The temporal and spatial resolution needed to predict the electric fields, conductivities, and currents in the ionosphere is driving the need for further advances. These parameters are intricately tied to auroral phenomena—energy deposition due to Joule heating and precipitating particles, motions of the auroral boundary, and ion outflow. A new view of these auroral processes is emerging that focuses on small-scale structures in the magnetosphere and their ionospheric effects, which may include the rapid variations in current associated with geomagnetically induced currents and the resulting perturbations to geoelectric fields on Earth’s surface. Improvements in model development have paralleled the advancements in understanding, yielding coupled models that better replicate the spatial and temporal scales needed to simulate the interconnected domains. Many realizations of such multi-component systems are under development, each with its own limitations and advantages. Challenges remain in the ability of models to quantify uncertainties introduced by propagation of solar wind parameters, to account for numerical effects in model codes, and to handle the special conditions occurring during extreme events. The impacts to technical systems on the ground are highly sensitive to the local electric properties of Earth’s surface, as well as to the specific technology at risk. Current research is focused on understanding the characteristics of geomagnetic disturbances that are important for geomagnetically induced currents, the development of earth conductivity models, the calculation of geoelectric fields, and the modeling of induced currents in the different affected systems. Assessing and mitigating the risks to technical systems requires quantitative knowledge of the range of values to be expected under all possible geomagnetic and technical conditions. Considering the progress that has been made in studying the chain of events leading to hazardous geomagnetic disturbances, the path forward will require concerted efforts to reveal missing physics, improve modeling capabilities, and deploy new observational assets. New understanding should be targeted to accurately quantify solar wind driving, magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere coupling, and the impacts on specific technologies. The research, modeling, and observations highlighted here provide a framework for constructing a plan by which the international science community can comprehensively address the growing threat to human technologies caused by geomagnetic disturbances. 

Space weather, including solar storms, can impact Earth by disturbing the geomagnetic field. Despite the known dependence of birds and other animals on geomagnetic cues for successful seasonal migrations, the potential effects of space weather on organisms that use Earth’s magnetic field for navigation have received little study. We tested whether space weather geomagnetic disturbances are associated with disruptions to bird migration at a macroecological scale. We leveraged long-term radar data to characterize the nightly migration dynamics of the nocturnally migrating North American avifauna over 22 y. We then used concurrent magnetometer data to develop a local magnetic disturbance index associated with each radar station (ΔBmax), facilitating spatiotemporally explicit analyses of the relationship between migration and geomagnetic disturbance. After controlling for effects of atmospheric weather and spatiotemporal patterns, we found a 9 to 17% decrease in migration intensity in both spring and fall during severe space weather events. During fall migration, we also found evidence for decreases in effort flying against the wind, which may represent a depression of active navigation such that birds drift more with the wind during geomagnetic disturbances. Effort flying against the wind in the fall was most reduced under both overcast conditions and high geomagnetic disturbance, suggesting that a combination of obscured celestial cues and magnetic disturbance may disrupt navigation. Collectively, our results provide evidence for community-wide avifaunal responses to geomagnetic disturbances driven by space weather during nocturnal migration.

 

Inter-hemispheric asymmetry (IHA) in Earth’s ionosphere–thermosphere (IT) system can be associated with high-latitude forcing that intensifies during storm time, e.g., ion convection, auroral electron precipitation, and energy deposition, but a comprehensive understanding of the pathways that generate IHA in the IT is lacking. Numerical simulations can help address this issue, but accurate specification of high-latitude forcing is needed. In this study, we utilize the Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment-revised fieldaligned currents (FACs) to specify the high-latitude electric potential in the Global Ionosphere and Thermosphere Model (GITM) during the October 8–9, 2012, storm. Our result illustrates the advantages of the FAC-driven technique in capturing high-latitude ion drift, ion convection equatorial boundary, and the storm-time neutral density response observed by satellite. First, it is found that the cross-polar-cap potential, hemispheric power, and ion convection distribution can be highly asymmetric between two hemispheres with a clear B_ydependence in the convection equatorial boundary. Comparison with simulation based on mirror precipitation suggests that the convection distribution is more sensitive to FAC, while its intensity also depends on the ionospheric conductance-related precipitation. Second, the IHA in the neutral density response closely follows the IHA in the total Joule heating dissipation with a time delay. Stronger Joule heating deposited associated with greater high-latitude electric potential in the southern hemisphere during the focus period generates more neutral density as well, which provides some evidences that the high-latitude forcing could become the dominant factor to IHAs in the thermosphere when near the equinox. Our study improves the understanding of storm-time IHA in high-latitude forcing and the IT system.

 

Models for space weather forecasting will never be complete/valid without accounting for inter-hemispheric asymmetries in Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere. This whitepaper is a strategic vision for understanding these asymmetries from a global perspective of geospace research and space weather monitoring, including current states, future challenges, and potential solutions. 

The performance of three global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in estimating the Earth's magnetopause location and ionospheric cross polar cap potential (CPCP) have been presented. Using the Community Coordinated Modeling Center's Run-on-Request system and extensive database on results of various magnetospheric scenarios simulated for a variety of solar weather patterns, the aforementioned model predictions have been compared with magnetopause standoff distance estimations obtained from six empirical models, and with cross polar cap potential estimations obtained from the Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics (AMIE) Model and the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) observations. We have considered a range of events spanning different space weather activity to analyze the performance of these models. Using a fit performance metric analysis for each event, the models' reproducibility of magnetopause standoff distances and CPCP against empirically-predicted observations were quantified, and salient features that govern the performance characteristics of the modeled magnetospheric and ionospheric quantities were identified. Results indicate mixed outcomes for different models during different events, with almost all models underperforming during the extreme-most events. The quantification also indicates a tendency to underpredict magnetopause distances in the absence of an inner magnetospheric model, and an inclination toward over predicting CPCP values under general conditions. 

We have developed a new procedure for combining lists of substorm onset times from multiple sources. We apply this procedure to observational data and to magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model output from 1–31 January 2005. We show that this procedure is capable of rejecting false positive identifications and filling data gaps that appear in individual lists. The resulting combined onset lists produce a waiting time distribution that is comparable to previously published results, and superposed epoch analyses of the solar wind driving conditions and magnetospheric response during the resulting onset times are also comparable to previous results. Comparison of the substorm onset list from the MHD model to that obtained from observational data reveals that the MHD model reproduces many of the characteristic features of the observed substorms, in terms of solar wind driving, magnetospheric response, and waiting time distribution. Heidke skill scores show that the MHD model has statistically significant skill in predicting substorm onset times.

 

There is considerable evidence that current sheet scattering (CSS) plays an important role in isotropic boundary (IB) formation during quiet time. However, IB formation can also result from scattering by electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves, which are much more prevalent during storm time. The effectiveness of CSS can be estimated by the parameter, the ratio of the field line radius of curvature to the particle gyroradius. Using magnetohydrodynamic and empirical models, we estimated the parameterKassociated with storm time IB observations on the nightside. We used magnetic field observations from spacecraft in the magnetotail to estimate and correct for errors in theKvalues computed by the models. We find that the magnetohydrodynamic and empirical models produce fairly similar results without correction and that correction increases this similarity. Accounting for uncertainty in both the latitude of the IB and the threshold value ofKrequired for CSS, we found that 29–54% of the IB observations satisfied the criteria for CSS. We found no correlation between the correctedKand magnetic local time, which further supports the hypothesis that CSS played a significant role in forming the observed IBs.