During the mid‐Holocene (MH: ∼6,000 years Before Present) and Last Interglacial LIG (LIG: ∼129,000–116,000 years Before Present) differences in the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of insolation drove Northern Hemisphere high‐latitude warming comparable to that projected for the end of the 21st century in low emissions scenarios. Paleoclimate proxy records point to distinct but regionally variable hydroclimatic changes during these past warm intervals. However, model simulations have generally disagreed on North American regional moisture patterns during the MH and LIG. To investigate how closely the latest generation of models associated with the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) reproduces proxy‐inferred moisture patterns during recent warm periods, we compare hydroclimate output from 17 PMIP4 models with newly updated compilations of moisture‐sensitive North American proxy records during the MH and LIG. Agreement is lower for the MH, with models producing wet anomalies across the western United States (US) where most proxies indicate increased aridity relative to the preindustrial period. The models that agree most closely with the LIG proxy compilation display relative wetness in the eastern US and Alaska, and dryness in the northwest and central US. An assessment of atmospheric dynamics using an ensemble of the three LIG simulations that best agree with the proxies suggests that weaker winter North Pacific pressure gradients and steeper summer North Pacific and Atlantic gradients drive LIG precipitation patterns. Our updated compilations and proxy‐model comparisons offer a tool for benchmarking climate models and their performance in simulating climate states that are warmer than present.
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Abstract Recent wildfire activity in semi-arid regions like western North America exceeds the range of historical records. High-resolution paleoclimate archives such as stalagmites could illuminate the link between hydroclimate, vegetation change, and fire activity in pre-anthropogenic climate states beyond the timescale of existing tree-ring records. Here we present an analysis of levoglucosan, a combustion-sensitive anhydrosugar, and lignin oxidation products (LOPs) in a stalagmite, reconstructing fire activity and vegetation composition in the California Coast Range across the 8.2 kyr event. Elevated levoglucosan concentrations suggest increased fire activity while altered LOP compositions indicate a shift toward more woody vegetation during the event. These changes are concurrent with increased hydroclimate volatility as shown by carbon and calcium isotope proxies. Together, these records suggest that climate whiplash (oscillations between extreme wetness and aridity) and fire activity in California, both projected to increase with anthropogenic climate change, were tightly coupled during the early Holocene.
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Abstract A multiproxy record from a fast‐growing stalagmite reveals variable hydroclimate on the California coast across the 8.2 kyr event and a precursor event likely caused by initial drainage of proglacial Lake Agassiz. Using speleothem δ44Ca, we develop the first semiquantitative estimates of paleorainfall variability for California through calibration with measurements of the modern climate and cave environment. We find that the magnitude of rainfall variability during the 8.2 kyr event approached the multiyear variability observable in the recent past (1950–2019) and the magnitude of variability during the precursor event likely exceeded this range. Additionally, we observe other instances of multidecadal variability comparable in magnitude to the precursor event during the record. Our work suggests that speleothem calcium isotope ratios are a powerful semiquantitative means to reconstruct paleorainfall, although numerous factors must be assessed in each cave system before applying this approach.