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We investigate the timing and relative influence of VLF in the chorus frequency range observed by the DEMETER spacecraft and ULF wave activity from ground stations on daily changes in electron flux (0.23 to over 2.9 MeV) observed by the HEO‐3 spacecraft. At eachL‐shell, we use multiple regression to investigate the effects of each wave type and each daily lag independent of the others. We find that reduction and enhancement of electrons occur at different timescales. Chorus power spectral density and ULF wave power are associated with immediate electron decreases on the same day but with flux enhancement 1–2 days later. ULF is nearly always more influential than chorus on both increases and decreases of flux, although chorus is often a significant factor. There was virtually no difference in correlations of ULF Pc3, Pc4, or Pc5 with electron flux. A synergistic interaction between chorus and ULF waves means that enhancement is most effective when both waves are present, pointing to a two‐step process where local acceleration by chorus waves first energizes electrons which are then brought to even higher energies by inward radial diffusion due to ULF waves. However, decreases in flux due to these waves act additively. Chorus and ULF waves combined are most effective at describing changes in electron flux at >1.5 MeV. At lowerL(2–3), correlations between ULF and VLF (likely hiss) with electron flux were low. The most successful models, overL = 4–6, explained up to 47.1% of the variation in the data.

Rapid changes of magnetic fields associated with nighttime magnetic perturbation events (MPEs) with amplitudes |ΔB| of hundreds of nT and 5–10 min duration can induce geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) that can harm technological systems. Here we present superposed epoch analyses of large nighttime MPEs (|dB/dt| ≥ 6 nT/s) observed during 2015 and 2017 at five stations in Arctic Canada ranging from 64.7° to 75.2° in corrected geomagnetic latitude (MLAT) as functions of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), solar wind dynamic pressure, density, and velocity, and the SML, SMU, and SYM/H geomagnetic activity indices. Analyses were produced for premidnight and postmidnight events and for three ranges of time after the most recent substorm onset: (a) 0–30 min, (b) 30–60 min, and (c) >60 min. Of the solar wind and IMF parameters studied, only the IMF Bz component showed any consistent temporal variations prior to MPEs: a 1–2 h wide 1–3 nT negative minimum at all stations beginning ∼30–80 min before premidnight MPEs, and minima that were less consistent but often deeper before postmidnight MPEs. Median, 25th, and 75th percentile SuperMAG auroral indices SML (SMU) showed drops (rises) before pre‐ and post‐midnight type A MPEs, but most of the MPEs in categories B and C did not coincide with large‐scale peaks in ionospheric electrojets. Median SYM/H indices were flat near −30 nT for premidnight events and showed no consistent temporal association with any MPE events. More disturbed values of IMF Bz, Psw, Nsw, SML, SMU, and SYM/H appeared postmidnight than premidnight.

We report on observations of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves and their interactions with injected ring current particles and high energy radiation belt electrons. The magnetic field experiment aboard the twin Van Allen Probes spacecraft measured EMIC waves nearL = 5.5–6. Particle data from the spacecraft show that the waves were associated with particle injections. The wave activity was also observed by a ground‐based magnetometer near the spacecraft geomagnetic footprint over a more extensive temporal range. Phase space density profiles, calculated from directional differential electron flux data from Van Allen Probes, show that there was a significant energy‐dependent relativistic electron dropout over a limitedL‐shell range during and after the EMIC wave activity. In addition, the NOAA spacecraft observed relativistic electron precipitation associated with the EMIC waves near the footprint of the Van Allen Probes spacecraft. The observations suggest EMIC wave‐induced relativistic electron loss in the radiation belt.

To find the best method of predicting when daily relativistic electron flux (>2 MeV) will rise at geosynchronous orbit, we compare model predictive success rates (true positive rate or TPR) for multiple regression, ARMAX, logistic regression, a feed‐forward multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a recurrent neural network (RNN) model. We use only those days on which flux could rise, removing days when flux is already high from the data set. We explore three input variable sets: (1) ground‐based data (Kp,Dst, and sunspot number), (2) a full set of easily available solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters (|B|,Bz,V,N,P,Ey,Kp,Dst, and sunspot number, and (3) this full set with the addition of previous day's flux. Despite high validation correlations in the multiple regression and ARMAX predictions, these regression models had low predictive ability (TPR < 45%) and are not recommended for use. The three classifier model types (logistic regression, MLP, and RNN) performed better (TPR: 50.8–74.6%). These rates were increased further if the cost of missing an event was set at 4 times that of predicting an event that did not happen (TPR: 73.1–89.6%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves did not, for the most part, differ between the classifier models (logistic, MLP, and RNN), indicating that any of the three could be used to discriminate between events and nonevents, but validation suggests a full RNN model performs best. The addition of previous day's flux as a predictor provided only a slight advantage.

Many factors influence relativistic outer radiation belt electron fluxes, such as waves in the ultralow frequency (ULF) Pc5, very low frequency (VLF), and electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) frequency bands, seed electron flux, Dst disturbance levels, substorm occurrence, and solar wind inputs. In this work we compared relativistic electron flux poststorm versus prestorm using three methods of analysis: (1) multiple regression to predict flux values following storms, (2) multiple regression to predict the size and direction of the change in electron flux, and (3) multiple logistic regression to predict only the probability of the flux rising or falling. We determined which is the most predictive model and which factors are most influential. We found that a linear regression predicting the difference in prestorm and poststorm flux (Model 2) results in the highest validation correlations. The logistic regression used in Model 3 had slightly weaker predictive abilities than the other two models but had the most value in providing a prediction of the probability of the electron flux increasing after a storm. Of the variables used (ULF Pc5 and VLF, seed electrons, substorm activity, and EMIC waves), the most influential in the final model were ULF Pc5 waves and the seed electrons. IMF Bz, Dst, and solar wind number density, velocity, and pressure did not improve any of the models, and were deemed unnecessary for effective predictions.

We model lower band chorus observations from the DEMETER satellite using daily and hourly autoregressive‐moving average transfer function (ARMAX) equations. ARMAX models can account for serial autocorrelation between observations that are measured close together in time and can be used to predict a response variable based on its past behavior without the need for recent data. Unstable distributions of radiation belt source electrons (tens of keV) and the substorm activity (SMEd from the SuperMAG array) that is thought to inject these electrons were both statistically significant explanatory variables in a daily ARMAX model describing chorus. Predictions from this model correlated well with observations in a hold‐out test data set (validation correlation of 0.675). Source electron flux was most influential when observations came from the same day or the day before the chorus measurement, with effects decaying rapidly over time. Substorms were more influential when they occurred on previous days, presumably due to their injecting source electrons from the plasma sheet. A daily ARMAX model with interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)|B|, IMFB_z, and solar wind pressure as inputs instead of those given above was somewhat less predictive of chorus (r=0.611). An hourly ARMAX model with only solar wind and IMF inputs was even less successful, with a validation correlation of 0.502.

Nearly all studies of impulsive magnetic perturbation events (MPEs) with large magnetic field variability (dB/dt) that can produce dangerous geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) have used data from the Northern Hemisphere. Here we present details of four large‐amplitude MPE events (|ΔB_x| > 900 nT and |dB/dt| > 10 nT/s in at least one component) observed between 2015 and 2018 in conjugate high‐latitude regions (65–80° corrected geomagnetic latitude), using magnetometer data from (1) Pangnirtung and Iqaluit in eastern Arctic Canada and the magnetically conjugate South Pole Station in Antarctica and (2) the Greenland West Coast Chain and two magnetically conjugate chains in Antarctica, AAL‐PIP and BAS LPM. From one to three different isolated MPEs localized in corrected geomagnetic latitude were observed during three premidnight events; many were simultaneous within 3 min in both hemispheres. Their conjugate latitudinal amplitude profiles, however, matched qualitatively at best. During an extended postmidnight interval, which we associate with an interval of omega bands, multiple highly localized MPEs occurred independently in time at each station in both hemispheres. These nighttime MPEs occurred under a wide range of geomagnetic conditions, but common to each was a negative interplanetary magnetic fieldB_zthat exhibited at least a modest increase at or near the time of the event. A comparison of perturbation amplitudes to modeled ionospheric conductances in conjugate hemispheres clearly favored a current generator model over a voltage generator model for three of the four events; neither model provided a good fit for the premidnight event that occurred near vernal equinox.

Ground observations of VLF (very low frequency) waves have often been used to infer VLF activity in the magnetosphere; however, they are not an unbiased measure of activity at satellite altitudes due to transionospheric absorption and subionospheric attenuation. We propose several empirical models that control for these effects. VLF power spectral density (PSD) from the VLF/ELF Logger Experiment (VELOX, L=4.6, Halley, Antarctica) is used to predict DEMETER low Earth orbit VLF PSD. Validation correlations of these models are as high as 0.764; thus, ground VLF receivers spaced around the Earth could provide coverage of outer radiation belt lower band chorus over the latitudinal limits of this model (±45–75°). Correlations of four frequency bands (centered at 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, and 4.25 kHz) are compared. The simple linear correlation between ground and satellite VLF PSD in the 1.0‐kHz channel was 0.606 (at dawn). A cubic model resulted in higher correlation (0.638). VLF penetration to the ground is reduced by ionospheric absorption during solar illumination and by disruption of ducting field lines during disturbed conditions. Subionospheric attenuation also reduces VLF observations from distant field lines. Addition of these covariates improved predictions. Both solar illumination and disturbed conditions reduced ground observation of VLF PSD, with higher power waves penetrating to the ground proportionately less than lower power waves. The effect of illumination in reducing wave penetration was more pronounced at higher frequency (4.25 kHz), with the effect at a midrange frequency (2.0 kHz) falling between these two extremes.

The rapid changes of magnetic fields associated with large, isolated magnetic perturbations with amplitudes |ΔB| of hundreds of nanotesla and 5‐ to 10‐min periods can induce bursts of geomagnetically induced currents that can harm technological systems. This paper presents statistical summaries of the characteristics of nightside magnetic perturbation events observed in Eastern Arctic Canada from 2014 through 2017 using data from stations that are part of four magnetometer arrays: MACCS, AUTUMNX, CANMOS, and CARISMA, covering a range of magnetic latitudes from 68 to 78°. Most but not all of the magnetic perturbation events were associated with substorms: roughly two thirds occurred between 5 and 30 min after onset. The association of intense nighttime magnetic perturbation events with magnetic storms was significantly reduced at latitudes above 73°, presumably above the nominal auroral oval. A superposed epoch study of 21 strong events at Cape Dorset showed that the largest |dB/dt| values appeared within an ~275‐km radius that was associated with a region of shear between upward and downward field‐aligned currents. The statistical distributions of impulse amplitudes of both |ΔB| and |dB/dt| fit well the log‐normal distribution at all stations. The |ΔB| distributions are similar over the magnetic latitude range studied, but the kurtosis and skewness of the |dB/dt| distributions show a slight increase with latitude. Knowledge of the statistical characteristics of these events has enabled us to estimate the occurrence probability of extreme impulsive disturbances using the approximation of a log‐normal distribution.

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves can drive precipitation of tens of keV protons and relativistic electrons, and are a potential candidate for causing radiation belt flux dropouts. In this study, we quantitatively analyze three cases of EMIC‐driven precipitation, which occurred near the dusk sector observed by multiple Low‐Earth‐Orbiting (LEO) Polar Operational Environmental Satellites/Meteorological Operational satellite programme (POES/MetOp) satellites. During EMIC wave activity, the proton precipitation occurred from few tens of keV up to hundreds of keV, while the electron precipitation was mainly at relativistic energies. We compare observations of electron precipitation with calculations using quasi‐linear theory. For all cases, we consider the effects of other magnetospheric waves observed simultaneously with EMIC waves, namely, plasmaspheric hiss and magnetosonic waves, and find that the electron precipitation at MeV energies was predominantly caused by EMIC‐driven pitch angle scattering. Interestingly, each precipitation event observed by a LEO satellite extended over a limited L shell region (ΔL ~ 0.3 on average), suggesting that the pitch angle scattering caused by EMIC waves occurs only when favorable conditions are met, likely in a localized region. Furthermore, we take advantage of the LEO constellation to explore the occurrence of precipitation at different L shells and magnetic local time sectors, simultaneously with EMIC wave observations near the equator (detected by Van Allen Probes) or at the ground (measured by magnetometers). Our analysis shows that although EMIC waves drove precipitation only in a narrow ΔL, electron precipitation was triggered at various locations as identified by POES/MetOp over a rather broad region (up to ~4.4 hr MLT and ~1.4 Lshells) with similar patterns between satellites.