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ABSTRACT Climate change threatens biodiversity when species cannot tolerate, adapt to, or track shifting environmental conditions to stay within their climatic niches. A major unresolved question is whether and how species' genetic diversity modulates these dynamics, buffering against range contractions or facilitating range expansions. To test this, we integrated the largest global databases of species range shifts and genetic diversity, encompassing 4673 range shift estimates for 1888 species with available genetic data, including insects, arachnids, birds, fish, and plants. We found that range shifting rates were significantly shaped by the interaction of genetic diversity and climate change velocity. Under rapid warming, species with higher genetic diversity exhibited reduced trailing edge contractions, likely reflecting enhanced evolutionary potential or reduced vulnerability to drift. Under moderate warming, species with higher genetic diversity shifted more rapidly at leading edges and range centroids, consistent with greater colonisation ability. Our study provides evidence that genetic diversity potentially enables persistence at the trailing edge and colonisation at the leading edge, with the magnitude of these effects varying depending on the velocity of climate change. 

Abstract Patterns of population connectivity shape ecological and evolutionary phenomena from population persistence to local adaptation and can inform conservation strategy. Connectivity patterns emerge from the interaction of individual behavior with a complex and heterogeneous environment. Despite ample observation that dispersal patterns vary through time, the extent to which variation in the physical environment can explain emergent connectivity variation is not clear. Empirical studies of its contribution promise to illuminate a potential source of variability that shapes the dynamics of natural populations. We leveraged simultaneous direct dispersal observations and oceanographic transport simulations of the clownfishAmphiprion clarkiiin the Camotes Sea, Philippines, to assess the contribution of oceanographic variability to emergent variation in connectivity. We found that time‐varying oceanographic simulations on both annual and monsoonal timescales partly explained the observed dispersal patterns, suggesting that temporal variation in oceanographic transport shapes connectivity variation on these timescales. However, interannual variation in observed mean dispersal distance was nearly 10 times the expected variation from biophysical simulations, revealing that additional biotic and abiotic factors contribute to interannual connectivity variation. Simulated dispersal kernels also predicted a smaller scale of dispersal than the observations, supporting the hypothesis that undocumented abiotic factors and behaviors such as swimming and navigation enhance the probability of successful dispersal away from, as opposed to retention near, natal sites. Our findings highlight the potential for coincident observations and biophysical simulations to test dispersal hypotheses and the influence of temporal variability on metapopulation persistence, local adaptation, and other population processes. 

Abstract Global change is impacting biodiversity across all habitats on earth. New selection pressures from changing climatic conditions and other anthropogenic activities are creating heterogeneous ecological and evolutionary responses across many species' geographic ranges. Yet we currently lack standardised and reproducible tools to effectively predict the resulting patterns in species vulnerability to declines or range changes.We developed an informatic toolbox that integrates ecological, environmental and genomic data and analyses (environmental dissimilarity, species distribution models, landscape connectivity, neutral and adaptive genetic diversity, genotype‐environment associations and genomic offset) to estimate population vulnerability. In our toolbox, functions and data structures are coded in a standardised way so that it is applicable to any species or geographic region where appropriate data are available, for example individual or population sampling and genomic datasets (e.g. RAD‐seq, ddRAD‐seq, whole genome sequencing data) representing environmental variation across the species geographic range.To demonstrate multi‐species applicability, we apply our toolbox to three georeferenced genomic datasets for co‐occurring East African spiny reed frogs (Afrixalus fornasini, A. delicatusandA. sylvaticus) to predict their population vulnerability, as well as demonstrating that range loss projections based on adaptive variation can be accurately reproduced from a previous study using data for two European bat species (Myotis escaleraiandM. crypticus).Our framework sets the stage for large scale, multi‐species genomic datasets to be leveraged in a novel climate change vulnerability framework to quantify intraspecific differences in genetic diversity, local adaptation, range shifts and population vulnerability based on exposure, sensitivity and landscape barriers. 

Abstract Genetic diversity is a fundamental component of biodiversity. Examination of global patterns of genetic diversity can help highlight mechanisms underlying species diversity, though a recurring challenge has been that patterns may vary by molecular marker. Here, we compiled 6862 observations of genetic diversity from 492 species of marine fish and tested among hypotheses for diversity gradients: the founder effect hypothesis, the kinetic energy hypothesis, and the productivity‐diversity hypothesis. We fit generalized linear mixed effect models (GLMMs) and explored the extent to which various macroecological drivers (latitude, longitude, temperature (SST), and chlorophyll‐a concentration) explained variation in genetic diversity. We found that mitochondrial genetic diversity followed geographic gradients similar to those of species diversity, being highest near the Equator, particularly in the Coral Triangle, while nuclear genetic diversity did not follow clear geographic patterns. Despite these differences, all genetic diversity metrics were correlated with chlorophyll‐a concentration, while mitochondrial diversity was also positively associated with SST. Our results provide support for the kinetic energy hypothesis, which predicts that elevated mutation rates at higher temperatures increase mitochondrial but not necessarily nuclear diversity, and the productivity‐diversity hypothesis, which posits that resource‐rich regions support larger populations with greater genetic diversity. Overall, these findings reveal how environmental variables can influence mutation rates and genetic drift in the ocean, caution against using mitochondrial macrogenetic patterns as proxies for whole‐genome diversity, and aid in defining global gradients of genetic diversity. 

Abstract The demographic history of a population is important for conservation and evolution, but this history is unknown for many populations. Methods that use genomic data have been developed to infer demography, but they can be challenging to implement and interpret, particularly for large populations. Thus, understanding if and when genetic estimates of demography correspond to true population history is important for assessing the performance of these genetic methods. Here, we used double‐digest restriction‐site associated DNA (ddRAD) sequencing data from archived collections of larval summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus,n = 279) from three cohorts (1994–1995, 1997–1998 and 2008–2009) along the U.S. East coast to examine how contemporary effective population size and genetic diversity responded to changes in abundance in a natural population. Despite little to no detectable change in genetic diversity, coalescent‐based demographic modelling from site frequency spectra revealed that summer flounder effective population size declined dramatically in the early 1980s. The timing and direction of change corresponded well with the observed decline in spawning stock census abundance in the late 1980s from independent fish surveys. Census abundance subsequently recovered and achieved the prebottleneck size. Effective population size also grew following the bottleneck. Our results for summer flounder demonstrate that genetic sampling and site frequency spectra can be useful for detecting population dynamics, even in species with large effective sizes. 

Evaluating the evolutionary impacts of anthropogenic activity on populations is key to understanding species resiliency and to designing effective conservation strategies. Sequencing DNA from historical specimens provides the opportunity to establish a his torical baseline and empirically assess changes in genetic diversity, changes in effective population size, and selection over time. Here, we sequenced historical and contemporary samples of the cardinalfish Taeniamia zosterophora collected in 1908 and in 2021–2022 across two sites with differing human impact in the Philippines. At both sites, genetic diversity increased over time, with contemporary samples hav ing significantly higher Watterson’s v than historical samples. This di versity increase was primarily attributable to positive selection on low-frequency alleles such that they increased toward intermediate fre quencies through time. For the putatively neutral fraction of the ge nome, in contrast, there was a slight but significant decline in Watterson’s v at both low and high human impact sites, suggesting that drift strength ened and effective population sizes declined through time. There was more evidence for selection and greater loss of neutral diversity at the site with higher human impact. Our results provide empirical evi dence for the surprising preservation of genetic diversity through the action of natural selection in the face of anthropogenic impacts. 

Genetic diversity is a crucial component of biodiversity, and as such, its maintenance and preservation is of high conservation concern. Tropical environments are undergoing intense rates of environmental change, and these changes may be driving large declines in genetic diversity. However, data on genetic diversity are highly skewed towards temperate regions. The degree to which diversity loss has occurred in tropical species, particularly marine species, remains an open and important question. Here, we directly compare genomic data from modern and museum collections of two commercially harvested nearshore marine fishes (Equulites laterofenestraandGazza minuta) gathered from a single location in the Philippines, spanning a century of intense environmental change. These data reveal a marked loss in genetic diversity and evidence for multiple orders of magnitude reductions in effective population size (N_e) in both species, indicating substantial genomic erosion. Such a decline highlights the long-lasting genomic consequences of anthropogenic activity and sheds light on an, until-now, invisible loss of diversity from the most biodiverse ocean region. 

Global conservation targets include protecting genetic diversity within species. Yet few studies have assessed whether protected areas (PAs) include genetically diverse populations across species globally. A first step is understanding the availability of population genetic data that could be used in these assessments. We surveyed georeferenced population‐level nuclear (as opposed to mitochondrial or plastid‐based) genetic data across continents and marine biomes (36,354 populations, 2809 species) and found substantial geographic and taxonomic gaps. Most data were concentrated in Europe and North America, with major gaps in Africa and Asia. For most taxonomic groups, data were available for <1% of described species. Globally, 52.08% of the total areal extent of PAs lacked genetically sampled populations. These gaps in data availability highlight the need for targeted genetic data collection, harmonization, and sharing to improve genetic diversity monitoring and conservation planning. Combined with proxy‐based genetic indicators, such data are needed to inform PA assessments, bolster area‐based conservation initiatives like 30 × 30, and support achievement of global genetic conservation targets.