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Polarimetric radar data from the WSR-88D network are used to examine the evolution of various polarimetric precursor signatures to tornado dissipation within a sample of 36 supercell storms. These signatures include an increase in bulk hook echo median raindrop size, a decrease in midlevel differential radar reflectivity factor (Z_DR) column area, a decrease in the magnitude of theZ_DRarc, an increase in the area of low-level large hail, and a decrease in the orientation angle of the vector separating low-levelZ_DRand specific differential phase (K_DP) maxima. Only supercells that produced “long-duration” tornadoes (with at least four consecutive volumes of WSR-88D data) are investigated, so that signatures can be sufficiently tracked in time, and novel algorithms are used to isolate each storm-scale process. During the time leading up to tornado dissipation, we find that hook echo median drop size (D₀) and medianZ_DRremain relatively constant, but hook echo medianK_DPand estimated number concentration (N_T) increase. TheZ_DRarc maximum magnitude andZ_DR–K_DPseparation orientation angles are observed to decrease in most dissipation cases. Neither the area of large hail nor theZ_DRcolumn area exhibit strong signals leading up to tornado dissipation. Finally, combinations of storm-scale behaviors and TVS behaviors occur most frequently just prior to tornado dissipation, but also are common 15–20 min prior to dissipation. The results from this study provide evidence that nowcasting tornado dissipation using dual-polarization radar may be possible when combined with TVS monitoring, subject to important caveats.

 

Supercell storms are the most prolific producers of violent tornadoes, though only a fraction of supercells produce tornadoes. Past research into the differences between tornadic and nontornadic supercells have provided some insights but are of little utility to a real‐time warning decision process. Operational weather radars provide consistent observations in real time, but conventional radar techniques have not been able to effectively distinguish between tornadic and nontornadic supercells. After the national radar network upgrade to polarimetric capabilities in 2013, a polarimetric signature frequently observed in supercells is the separation of low‐level enhanced differential reflectivityZ_DRand specific differential phaseK_DPregions. We analyzed this signature in tornadic and nontornadic supercell cases and found that, although the separation distances are similar, the separation orientations are statistically significantly different. Tornadic supercells have orientations more orthogonal to storm motion and nontornadic supercells have more parallel orientations. Possible reasons for these differences are discussed.

 

Abstract The Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) network has undergone several improvements in the last decade with the upgrade to dual-polarization capabilities and the ability for forecasters to rescan the lowest levels of the atmosphere more frequently through the use of Supplemental Adaptive Intra-volume Scanning (SAILS). SAILS reduces the revisit period for scanning the lowest 1 km of the atmosphere but comes at the cost of a longer delay between scans at higher altitudes. This study quantifies how often radar volume coverage patterns (VCPs) and all available SAILS options are used during the issuance of 148 882 severe thunderstorm and 18 263 tornado warnings, and near 10 474 tornado, 58 934 hail, and 127 575 wind reports in the dual-polarization radar era. A large majority of warnings and storm reports were measured with a VCP providing denser low-level sampling coverage. More frequent low-level updates were employed near tornado warnings and reports compared to severe thunderstorm warnings and hail or wind hazards. Warnings issued near a radar providing three extra low-level scans (SAILSx3) were more likely to be verified by a hazard with a positive lead time than warnings with fewer low-level scans. However, extra low-level scans were more frequently used in environments supporting organized convection as shown using watches issued by the Storm Prediction Center. In recent years, the number of midlevel radar elevation scans is declining per hour, which can adversely affect the tracking of convective polarimetric signatures, like Z DR columns, which were found above the lowest elevation angle in over 99% of cases examined. 

Abstract A sample of 198 supercells are investigated to determine if a radar proxy for the area of the storm midlevel updraft may be a skillful predictor of imminent tornado formation and/or peak tornado intensity. A novel algorithm, a modified version of the Thunderstorm Risk Estimation from Nowcasting Development via Size Sorting (TRENDSS) algorithm is used to estimate the area of the enhanced differential radar reflectivity factor (Z DR ) column in Weather Surveillance Radar – 1988 Doppler data; the Z DR column area is used as a proxy for the area of the midlevel updraft. The areas of Z DR columns are compared for 154 tornadic supercells and 44 non-tornadic supercells, including 30+ supercells with tornadoes rated EF1, EF2, and EF3; nine supercells with EF4+ tornadoes also are analyzed. It is found that (i) at the time of their peak 0-1 km azimuthal shear, non-tornadic supercells have consistently small (< 20 km 2 ) Z DR column areas while tornadic cases exhibit much greater variability in areas, and (ii) at the time of tornadogenesis, EF3+ tornadic cases have larger Z DR column areas than tornadic cases rated EF1/2. In addition, all nine violent tornadoes sampled have Z DR column areas > 30 km 2 at the time of tornadogenesis. However, only weak positive correlation is found between Z DR column area and both radar-estimated peak tornado intensity and maximum tornado path width. Planned future work focused on mechanisms linking updraft size and tornado formation and intensity is summarized and the use of the modified TRENDSS algorithm, which is immune to Z DR bias and thus ideal for real-time operational use, is emphasized. 

Abstract The time preceding supercell tornadogenesis and tornadogenesis “failure” has been studied extensively to identify differing attributes related to tornado production or lack thereof. Studies from the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX) found that air in the rear-flank downdraft (RFD) regions of non- and weakly tornadic supercells had different near-surface thermodynamic characteristics than that in strongly tornadic supercells. Subsequently, it was proposed that microphysical processes are likely to have an impact on the resulting thermodynamics of the near-surface RFD region. One way to view proxies to microphysical features, namely drop size distributions (DSDs), is through use of polarimetric radar data. Studies from the second VORTEX used data from dual-polarization radars to provide evidence of different DSDs in the hook echoes of tornadic and non-tornadic supercells. However, radar-based studies during these projects were limited to a small number of cases preventing result generalizations. This study compiles 68 tornadic and 62 non-tornadic supercells using Weather Surveillance Radar–1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data to analyze changes in polarimetric radar variables leading up to, and at, tornadogenesis and tornadogenesis failure. Case types generally did not show notable hook echo differences in variables between sets, but did show spatial hook echo quadrant DSD differences. Consistent with past studies, differential radar reflectivity factor (Z DR ) generally decreased leading up to tornadogenesis and tornadogenesis failure; in both sets, estimated total number concentration increased during the same times. Relationships between DSDs and the near-storm environment, and implications of results for nowcasting tornadogenesis, also are discussed. 

Abstract Rapid-scan polarimetric data analysis of the dissipation of a likely violent supercell tornado that struck near Sulphur, Oklahoma, on 9 May 2016 is presented. The Rapid X-band Polarimetric Radar was used to obtain data of the tornado at the end of its mature phase and during its entire dissipation phase. The analysis is presented in two parts: dissipation characteristics of the tornadic vortex signature (TVS) associated with the tornado and storm-scale polarimetric features that may be related to processes contributing to tornado dissipation. The TVS exhibited near-surface radial velocities exceeding 100 m s−1 multiple times at the end of its mature phase, and then underwent a two-phased dissipation. Initially, decreases in near-surface intensity occurred rapidly over a ~5-min period followed by a slower decline in intensity that lasted an additional ~12 min. The dissipation of the TVS in time and height in the lowest 2 km above radar level and oscillatory storm-relative motion of the TVS also are discussed. Using polarimetric data, a well-defined low reflectivity ribbon is investigated for its vertical development, evolution, and relationship to the large tornadic debris signature (TDS) collocated with the TVS. The progression of the TDS during dissipation also is discussed with a focus on the presence of several bands of reduced copolar correlation coefficient that extend away from the main TDS and the eventual erosion of the TDS as the tornado dissipated. Finally, TVS and polarimetric data are combined to argue for the importance of a possible internal rear-flank downdraft momentum surge in contributing to the initial rapid dissipation of the tornado. 

Weather Surveillance Radar–1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from 36 tornadic supercell cases from 2012 to 2016 are investigated to identify common tornadic vortex signature (TVS) behaviors prior to tornado dissipation. Based on the results of past case studies, four characteristics of TVSs associated with tornado dissipation were identified: weak or decreasing TVS intensity, rearward storm-relative motion of the TVS, large or increasing TVS vertical tilt, and large or increasing TVS horizontal displacement from the main storm updraft. Only cases in which a TVS was within 60 km of a WSR-88D site in at least four consecutive volumes at the end of the tornado life cycle were examined. The space and time restrictions on case selection ensured that the aforementioned quantities could be determined within ~500 m of the surface at several time periods despite the relatively coarse spatiotemporal resolution of WSR-88D systems. It is found that prior to dissipation, TVSs become increasingly less intense, tend to move rearward in a storm-relative framework, and become increasingly more separated from the approximate location of the main storm updraft. There is no clear signal in the relationship between tornado tilt, as measured in inclination angle, and TVS dissipation. The frequency of combinations of TVS dissipation behaviors, the impact of increased low-level WSR-88D scanning on dissipation detection, and prospects for future nowcasting of tornado life cycles also are discussed.