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Graph processes that unfold in continuous time are of obvious theoretical and practical interest. Particularly useful are those whose long-term behavior converges to a graph distribution of known form. Here, we review some of the conditions for such convergence, and provide examples of novel and/or known processes that do so. These include subfamilies of the well-known stochastic actor oriented models, as well as continuum extensions of temporal and separable temporal exponential family random graph models. We also comment on some related threads in the broader work on network dynamics, which provide additional context for the continuous time case. 

The exponential family random graph modeling (ERGM) framework provides a highly flexible approach for the statistical analysis of networks (i.e., graphs). As ERGMs with dyadic dependence involve normalizing factors that are extremely costly to compute, practical strategies for ERGMs inference generally employ a variety of approximations or other workarounds. Markov Chain Monte Carlo maximum likelihood (MCMC MLE) provides a powerful tool to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of ERGM parameters, and is generally feasible for typical models on single networks with as many as a few thousand nodes. MCMC-based algorithms for Bayesian analysis are more expensive, and high-quality answers are challenging to obtain on large graphs. For both strategies, extension to the pooled case—in which we observe multiple networks from a common generative process—adds further computational cost, with both time and memory scaling linearly in the number of graphs. This becomes prohibitive for large networks, or cases in which large numbers of graph observations are available. Here, we exploit some basic properties of the discrete exponential families to develop an approach for ERGM inference in the pooled case that (where applicable) allows an arbitrarily large number of graph observations to be fit at no additional computational cost beyond preprocessing the data itself. Moreover, a variant of our approach can also be used to perform Bayesian inference under conjugate priors, again with no additional computational cost in the estimation phase. The latter can be employed either for single graph observations, or for observations from graph sets. As we show, the conjugate prior is easily specified, and is well-suited to applications such as regularization. Simulation studies show that the pooled method leads to estimates with good frequentist properties, and posterior estimates under the conjugate prior are well-behaved. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach with applications to pooled analysis of brain functional connectivity networks and to replicated x-ray crystal structures of hen egg-white lysozyme. 

The uneven spread of COVID-19 has resulted in disparate experiences for marginalized populations in urban centers. Using computational models, we examine the effects of local cohesion on COVID-19 spread in social contact networks for the city of San Francisco, finding that more early COVID-19 infections occur in areas with strong local cohesion. This spatially correlated process tends to affect Black and Hispanic communities more than their non-Hispanic White counterparts. Local social cohesion thus acts as a potential source of hidden risk for COVID-19 infection. 

Coarse-graining is a powerful tool for extending the reach of dynamic models of proteins and other biological macromolecules. Topological coarse-graining, in which biomolecules or sets thereof are represented via graph structures, is a particularly useful way of obtaining highly compressed representations of molecular structures, and simulations operating via such representations can achieve substantial computational savings. A drawback of coarse-graining, however, is the loss of atomistic detail—an effect that is especially acute for topological representations such as protein structure networks (PSNs). Here, we introduce an approach based on a combination of machine learning and physically-guided refinement for inferring atomic coordinates from PSNs. This “neural upscaling” procedure exploits the constraints implied by PSNs on possible configurations, as well as differences in the likelihood of observing different configurations with the same PSN. Using a 1 μs atomistic molecular dynamics trajectory of Aβ1–40, we show that neural upscaling is able to effectively recapitulate detailed structural information for intrinsically disordered proteins, being particularly successful in recovering features such as transient secondary structure. These results suggest that scalable network-based models for protein structure and dynamics may be used in settings where atomistic detail is desired, with upscaling employed to impute atomic coordinates from PSNs. 

Standard epidemiological models for COVID-19 employ variants of compartment (SIR or susceptible–infectious–recovered) models at local scales, implicitly assuming spatially uniform local mixing. Here, we examine the effect of employing more geographically detailed diffusion models based on known spatial features of interpersonal networks, most particularly the presence of a long-tailed but monotone decline in the probability of interaction with distance, on disease diffusion. Based on simulations of unrestricted COVID-19 diffusion in 19 US cities, we conclude that heterogeneity in population distribution can have large impacts on local pandemic timing and severity, even when aggregate behavior at larger scales mirrors a classic SIR-like pattern. Impacts observed include severe local outbreaks with long lag time relative to the aggregate infection curve, and the presence of numerous areas whose disease trajectories correlate poorly with those of neighboring areas. A simple catchment model for hospital demand illustrates potential implications for health care utilization, with substantial disparities in the timing and extremity of impacts even without distancing interventions. Likewise, analysis of social exposure to others who are morbid or deceased shows considerable variation in how the epidemic can appear to individuals on the ground, potentially affecting risk assessment and compliance with mitigation measures. These results demonstrate the potential for spatial network structure to generate highly nonuniform diffusion behavior even at the scale of cities, and suggest the importance of incorporating such structure when designing models to inform health care planning, predict community outcomes, or identify potential disparities. 

Many social and other networks exhibit stable size scaling relationships, such that features such as mean degree or reciprocation rates change slowly or are approximately constant as the number of vertices increases. Statistical network models built on top of simple Bernoulli baseline (or reference) measures often behave unrealistically in this respect, leading to the development of sparse reference models that preserve features such as mean degree scaling. In this paper, we generalize recent work on the micro-foundations of such reference models to the case of sparse directed graphs with non-vanishing reciprocity, providing a dynamic process interpretation of the emergence of stable macroscopic behavior.