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Abstract Effective nitrogen fertilizer management is crucial for reducing nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions while ensuring food security within planetary boundaries. However, climate change might also interact with management practices to alter N₂O emission and emission factors (EFs), adding further uncertainties to estimating mitigation potentials. Here, we developed a new hybrid modeling framework that integrates a machine learning model with an ensemble of eight process‐based models to project EFs under different climate and nitrogen policy scenarios. Our findings reveal that EFs are dynamically modulated by environmental changes, including climate, soil properties, and nitrogen management practices. Under low‐ambition nitrogen regulation policies, EF would increase from 1.18%–1.22% in 2010 to 1.27%–1.34% by 2050, representing a relative increase of 4.4%–11.4% and exceeding the IPCC tier‐1 EF of 1%. This trend is particularly pronounced in tropical and subtropical regions with high nitrogen inputs, where EFs could increase by 0.14%–0.35% (relative increase of 11.9%–17%). In contrast, high‐ambition policies have the potential to mitigate the increases in EF caused by climate change, possibly leading to slight decreases in EFs. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that global EFs are expected to continue rising due to warming and regional drying–wetting cycles, even in the absence of changes in nitrogen management practices. This asymmetrical influence of nitrogen fertilizers on EFs, driven by climate change, underscores the urgent need for immediate N₂O emission reductions and further assessments of mitigation potentials. This hybrid modeling framework offers a computationally efficient approach to projecting future N₂O emissions across various climate, soil, and nitrogen management scenarios, facilitating socio‐economic assessments and policy‐making efforts. 

Abstract Increasing food and biofuel demands have led to the cascading effects from cropland expansions, raised fertilizer use, to increased riverine nitrogen (N) loads. However, little is known about the current trade-off between riverine N pollution and crop production due to the lack of predictive understanding of ecological processes across the land-aquatic continuum. Here, we propose a riverine N footprint (RNF) concept to quantify how N loads change along with per unit crop production gain. Using data synthesis and a well-calibrated hydro-ecological model, we find that the RNF within the Mississippi–Atchafalaya River Basin peaked at 1.95 g N kg⁻¹grain during the 1990s, and then shifted from an increasing to a decreasing trend, reaching 0.65 g N kg⁻¹grain in the 2010s. This implies decoupled responses of crop production and N loads to key agricultural activities approximately after 2000, but this pattern varies considerably among sub-basins. Our study highlights the importance of developing a food–energy–water nexus indicator to examine the region-specific trade-offs between crop production and land-to-aquatic N loads for achieving nutrient mitigation goals while sustaining economic gains. 

Abstract While spatial heterogeneity of riverine nitrogen (N) loading is predominantly driven by the magnitude of basin‐wide anthropogenic N input, the temporal dynamics of N loading are closely related to the amount and timing of precipitation. However, existing studies do not disentangle the contributions of heavy precipitation versus non‐heavy precipitation predicted by future climate scenarios. Here, we explore the potential responses of N loading from the Mississippi Atchafalaya River Basin to precipitation changes using a well‐calibrated hydro‐ecological model and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. With present agricultural production and management practices, N loading could increase up to 30% by the end of the 21st century under future climate scenarios, half of which would be driven by heavy precipitation. Particularly, the RCP8.5 scenario, in which heavy precipitation and drought events become more frequent, would increase N loading disproportionately to projected increases in river discharge. N loading in spring would contribute 41% and 51% of annual N loading increase under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, most of which is related to higher N yield due to increases in heavy precipitation. Anthropogenic N inputs would be increasingly susceptible to leaching loss in the Midwest and the Mississippi Alluvial Plain regions. Our results imply that future climate change alone, including more frequent and intense precipitation extremes, would increase N loading and intensify the eutrophication of the Gulf of Mexico over this coming century. More effective nutrient management interventions are needed to reverse this trend. 

Abstract Spatiotemporal patterns of crop nitrogen (N) budget have important implications for agricultural N management and environmental policy. Previous studies examined crop N budget in different countries but often overlooked cross‐crop differences at sub‐national scales. In this study, we synthesize multiple databases to examine the N budget of eight major crops in the United States at the county scale during 1970–2019. Our analyses show that national crop N use efficiency (NUE) increased from 0.55 kg N kg⁻¹ N in the 1970s to 0.65 kg N kg⁻¹ N in the 2010s. Four out of eight crops such as corn, rice, cotton, and sorghum demonstrated an increasing NUE trend during the study period, whereas the other crops overall presented a declining NUE trend. Nationwide, about 41% of the total N input was not used by these crops (i.e., N surplus) over the study period, of which temporal variation was mainly driven by corn due to its large planting area and high N input. The national N surplus first increased in the 1970s and remained relatively stable till the 2000s. Since the early 2010s, however, N surplus began to decline and approached the levels in the early 1970s—an encouraging development that may lead to decreased N pollution to the environment. The hotspots of national N surplus coincided with corn‐ and rice‐producing counties. The sub‐national variations and temporal dynamics in crop N budget revealed in this study highlight the urgent need to understand the farm‐level crop N balance and the dominant factors controlling crop NUE for mitigating N pollution. 

Abstract The atmospheric concentration of nitrous oxide (N₂O) has increased by 23% since the pre‐industrial era, which substantially destructed the stratospheric ozone layer and changed the global climate. However, it remains uncertain about the reasons behind the increase and the spatiotemporal patterns of soil N₂O emissions, a primary biogenic source. Here, we used an integrative land ecosystem model, Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM), to quantify direct (i.e., emitted from local soil) and indirect (i.e., emissions related to local practices but occurring elsewhere) N₂O emissions in the contiguous United States during 1900–2019. Newly developed geospatial data of land‐use history and crop‐specific agricultural management practices were used to force DLEM at a spatial resolution of 5 arc‐min by 5 arc‐min. The model simulation indicates that the U.S. soil N₂O emissions totaled 0.97 ± 0.06 Tg N year⁻¹during the 2010s, with 94% and 6% from direct and indirect emissions, respectively. Hot spots of soil N₂O emission are found in the US Corn Belt and Rice Belt. We find a threefold increase in total soil N₂O emission in the United States since 1900, 74% of which is from agricultural soil emissions, increasing by 12 times from 0.04 Tg N year⁻¹in the 1900s to 0.51 Tg N year⁻¹in the 2010s. More than 90% of soil N₂O emission increase in agricultural soils is attributed to human land‐use change and agricultural management practices, while increases in N deposition and climate warming are the dominant drivers for N₂O emission increase from natural soils. Across the cropped acres, corn production stands out with a large amount of fertilizer consumption and high‐emission factors, responsible for nearly two‐thirds of direct agricultural soil N₂O emission increase since 1900. Our study suggests a large N₂O mitigation potential in cropland and the importance of exploring crop‐specific mitigation strategies and prioritizing management alternatives for targeted crop types. 

A global meta-analysis of 3,160 observations from 271 studies. 

This dataset presents spatiotemporal dynamics of phosphorus (P) fertilizer management (application rate, timing, and method) at a 4km × 4 km resolution in agricultural land of the contiguous U.S. from 1850 to 2022. By harmonizing multiple data sources, we reconstructed the county-level crop-specific P fertilizer use history. We then spatialized and resampled P fertilizer use data to 4 km × 4 km gridded maps based on historical U.S. cropland distribution and crop type database developed by Ye et al. (2024). This dataset contains (1) P fertilizer total consumption and mean application rate at the national level (Tabular); (2) P fertilizer consumption of 11 crops at the state level (Tabular); (3) P fertilizer consumption of permanent pasture (Tabular); (4) P fertilizer consumption of non-farm at the state level (Tabular); (5) P fertilizer application rate of 11 crop types at the state level (Tabular); (6) P fertilizer application rate of 11 crop types at the county level (Tabular); (7) P fertilizer application timing ratio at the state level (Tabular); (8) P fertilizer application method ratio at the state level (Tabular); (9) Gridded maps of P fertilizer application rate based on state-level data; (10) and (11) Gridded maps of P fertilizer application rate based on county-level data; (12)-(20) Gridded maps of P fertilizer application rate for each crop. A detailed description of the data development processes, key findings, and uncertainties can be found in Cao, P., Yi, B., Bilotto, F., Gonzalez Fischer, C., Herrero, M., Lu, C.: Crop-specific Management History of Phosphorus fertilizer input (CMH-P) in the croplands of United States: Reconciliation of top-down and bottom-up data sources, is under review for the journal Earth System Science Data (ESSD). https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2024-67/#discussion.  This work is supported by the Iowa Nutrient Research Center, the ISU College of Liberal Arts and Sciences Dean's Faculty Fellowship, and NSF CAREER grant (1945036). 

This dataset contains yearly projections of emission factors (EFs) for fertilizer-induced direct nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions across the global agricultural lands with a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° from 1990 to 2050. Emission factor (EF) is defined as the amount of N2O emitted per unit of nitrogen (N) fertilizer applied, expressed in percentage (%). They are developed from a hybrid modeling framework, Dym-EF (more details can be found in Li et al., 2024). The framework integrates machine learning approaches with an ensemble of eight process-based models from The Global N2O Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (NMIP2) to learn the relationship between EF dynamics and multiple environmental factors, such as climate, soil properties, nitrogen fertilizer input, and other agricultural management practices. After the hybrid modeling framework was extensively validated, we applied it to develop EF projections under different nitrogen management policies and climate change scenarios, including future climate data from 37 Global Climate Models (GCMs). The annual median and standard deviation (SD) of EF under each scenario represent the projection median and variability derived from climate input data using the 37 GCMs.The dataset filenames follow the structure: 'Scenario'_'N regulation'_'Median/SD', where 'Scenario' corresponds to the different nitrogen management and climate scenarios (e.g., INMS1, INMS2, and INMS3), 'N regulation' corresponds to the different nitrogen management levels (e.g., BAU, LowNRegul, and MedNRegul), and 'Median/SD' indicates whether the file contains the median (Median) or standard deviation (SD) of the projections. All relevant data and further details can be found in the supplementary materials and the cited references.INMS1: Business-as-usual, Land use regulation: Medium, Diet: Meat & dairy-rich, Ambition level: LowINMS2: Low-nitrogen regulation, Land use regulation: Medium, Diet: Medium meat & dairy, Ambition level: LowINMS3: Medium-nitrogen regulation, Land use regulation: Medium, Diet: Medium meat & dairy, Ambition level: ModerateINMS4: High-nitrogen regulation, Land use regulation: Medium, Diet: Medium meat & dairy, Ambition level: HighINMS5: Best-case, Land use regulation: Strong, Diet: Low meat & dairy, Ambition level: HighINMS6: Best-case “Plus”, Land use regulation: Strong, Diet: Ambitious diet shift and food-loss/waste reductions, Ambition level: HighINMS7: Bioenergy, Land use regulation: Strong, Diet: Low meat & dairy, Ambition level: HighWe developed this data using the “ranger” package in R 4.1.1, which is accessible at https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/ranger/. The optimization of the two hyperparameters (ntree and mtry) was performed using the ‘caret’ package, available at https://topepo.github.io/caret/.This database is developed by Li, L., C. Lu, W. Winiwarter, H. Tian, J. Canadell, A. Ito, A.K. Jain, S. Kou-Giesbrecht, S. Pan, N. Pan, H. Shi, Q. Sun, N. Vuichard, S. Ye., S. Zaehle, Q. Zhu. Enhanced nitrous oxide emission factors due to climate change increase the mitigation challenge in the agricultural sector Global Change Biology (In Press) 

Agricultural activities have been recognized as an important driver of land cover and land use change (LCLUC) and have significantly impacted the ecosystem feedback to climate by altering land surface properties. A reliable historical cropland distribution dataset is crucial for understanding and quantifying the legacy effects of agriculture-related LCLUC. While several LCLUC datasets have the potential to depict cropland patterns in the conterminous US, there remains a dearth of a relatively high-resolution datasets with crop type details over a long period. To address this gap, we reconstructed historical cropland density and crop type maps from 1850 to 2021 at a resolution of 1 km × 1 km by integrating county-level crop-specific inventory datasets, census data, and gridded LCLUC products. Different from other databases, we tracked the planting area dynamics of all crops in the US, excluding idle and fallow farm land and cropland pasture. The results showed that the crop acreages for nine major crops derived from our map products are highly consistent with the county-level inventory data, with a residual less than 0.2×103 ha (0.2 kha) in most counties (>75 %) during the entire study period. Temporally, the US total crop acreage has increased by 118×106 ha (118 Mha) from 1850 to 2021, primarily driven by corn (30 Mha) and soybean (35 Mha). Spatially, the hot spots of cropland distribution shifted from the Eastern US to the Midwest and the Great Plains, and the dominant crop types (corn and soybean) expanded northwestward. Moreover, we found that the US cropping diversity experienced a significant increase from the 1850s to the 1960s, followed by a dramatic decline in the recent 6 decades under intensified agriculture. Generally, this newly developed dataset could facilitate spatial data development, with respect to delineating crop-specific management practices, and enable the quantification of cropland change impacts on the environment. Annual cropland density and crop type maps are available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.22822838.v2 (Ye et al., 2023).