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ABSTRACT Predicting the effects of climate change on plant disease is critical for protecting ecosystems and food production. Here, we show how disease pressure responds to short‐term weather, historical climate and weather anomalies by compiling a global database (4339 plant–disease populations) of disease prevalence in both agricultural and wild plant systems. We hypothesised that weather and climate would play a larger role in disease in wild versus agricultural plant populations, which the results supported. In wild systems, disease prevalence peaked when the temperature was 2.7°C warmer than the historical average for the same time of year. We also found evidence of a negative interactive effect between weather anomalies and climate in wild systems, consistent with the idea that climate maladaptation can be an important driver of disease outbreaks. Temperature and precipitation had relatively little explanatory power in agricultural systems, though we observed a significant positive effect of current temperature. These results indicate that disease pressure in wild plants is sensitive to nonlinear effects of weather, weather anomalies and their interaction with historical climate. In contrast, warmer temperatures drove risks for agricultural plant disease outbreaks within the temperature range examined regardless of historical climate, suggesting vulnerability to ongoing climate change. 

Abstract Ecological niche models (ENMs) have been used frequently to predict the distribution and future spread of the pathogenic chytrid fungusBatrachochytrium dendrobatidis(Bd). Based on the assumption that chytridiomycosis outbreaks are most likely to occur where the conditions are ideal for Bd, many studies have identified high‐risk areas for chytridiomycosis and its associated mortality risk using only known Bd occurrences. However, the presence of a pathogen does not necessarily indicate high infection, disease or associated mortality.We used the BIOMOD2 package implemented in R, 19 bioclimatic variables, and 267 locality records, covering three levels of infection progress (occurrence, high infection loads and disease‐associated mortality), to calculate the potential areas where: (1) Bd is likely to be present, (2) amphibians are prone to harbour high infections and (3) chytridiomycosis‐related mortalities are likely to occur. We evaluate discrepancies among the three potential areas projected by the models, encompassing their spatial extent and associated environmental conditions.When all the Bd occurrences were used, the predicted area subjected to Bd risk covered 17% of the study area. However, when just mortality records were used, the predicted area decreased three‐fold. Notably, the three predicted areas only overlapped in 3% of the total study area, suggesting that the region at risk of mortality plus high infections constituted only one‐fifth of the predicted area for Bd presence. Mean temperature during the wettest and warmest 3 months of the year together with isothermality emerged as the most robust negative predictors in each of the three models.Synthesis and applications. Ecological niche models (ENMs) based on the presence data ofBatrachochytrium dendrobatidis(Bd) can overestimate the mortality risk of chytridiomycosis because the environmental conditions suitable for Bd presence do not always correspond to those conducive to significant host mortality. Distribution modelling can be a powerful tool when used correctly, and this study highlights the significance of careful data selection to ensure alignment with intended objectives. Considering the widespread use of ENMs to inform policy, meticulous design and comprehensive evaluation are imperative. 

Abstract Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis(Bd), an aquatic pathogenic fungus, is responsible for the decline of hundreds of amphibian species worldwide and negatively impacts biodiversity globally. Prophylactic exposure to the metabolites produced by Bd can provide protection for naïve tree frogs and reduce subsequent Bd infection intensity.Here, we used a response surface design crossing Bd metabolite prophylaxis concentration and exposure duration to determine how these factors modulate prophylactic protection against Bd in Pacific chorus frog (Pseudacris regilla) tadpoles (5 × 5 surface design) and metamorphs (3 × 3 surface design). We exposed individuals every weekday to one of five Bd metabolite concentrations or a water control for 1–5 weeks, after which all animals were challenged with live Bd to evaluate their susceptibility.Exposure to the Bd metabolite prophylaxis reduced Bd load and prevalence compared to the control for both the tadpoles and metamorphs. Increasing Bd metabolite prophylaxis concentration did not confer additional protection for either life stage, but increasing duration of exposure did benefit metamorphs by decreasing Bd prevalence but not Bd load.On average, control tadpoles and metamorphs had 66.2% and 99.4% higher Bd loads, respectively, than tadpoles and metamorphs exposed to any Bd metabolite prophylaxis.Additionally, Bd metabolite prophylaxis reduced Bd prevalence relative to controls in both tadpoles (20.5% vs. 56.3%, respectively) and metamorphs (21.9% vs. 87.5%, respectively).Synthesis and applications: The efficacy of short‐term exposures of relatively low concentrations of Bd metabolites at reducing Bd infections suggests that this approach has the potential to be scaled up to field use to aid in disease mitigation and conservation. Our results, combined with additional research on Bd metabolite prophylaxis for other amphibian species, suggest that this strategy may represent a broadly useful tool to protect at‐risk amphibian populations. 

Abstract There is a rich literature highlighting that pathogens are generally better adapted to infect local than novel hosts, and a separate seemingly contradictory literature indicating that novel pathogens pose the greatest threat to biodiversity and public health. Here, usingBatrachochytrium dendrobatidis, the fungus associated with worldwide amphibian declines, we test the hypothesis that there is enough variance in “novel” (quantified by geographic and phylogenetic distance) host‐pathogen outcomes to pose substantial risk of pathogen introductions despite local adaptation being common. Our continental‐scale common garden experiment and global‐scale meta‐analysis demonstrate that local amphibian‐fungal interactions result in higher pathogen prevalence, pathogen growth, and host mortality, but novel interactions led to variable consequences with especially virulent host‐pathogen combinations still occurring. Thus, while most pathogen introductions are benign, enough variance exists in novel host‐pathogen outcomes that moving organisms around the planet greatly increases the chance of pathogen introductions causing profound harm. 

Abstract The Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) convened a Pellston workshop in 2022 to examine how information on climate change could be better incorporated into the ecological risk assessment (ERA) process for chemicals as well as other environmental stressors. A major impetus for this workshop is that climate change can affect components of ecological risks in multiple direct and indirect ways, including the use patterns and environmental exposure pathways of chemical stressors such as pesticides, the toxicity of chemicals in receiving environments, and the vulnerability of species of concern related to habitat quality and use. This article explores a modeling approach for integrating climate model projections into the assessment of near‐ and long‐term ecological risks, developed in collaboration with climate scientists. State‐of‐the‐art global climate modeling and downscaling techniques may enable climate projections at scales appropriate for the study area. It is, however, also important to realize the limitations of individual global climate models and make use of climate model ensembles represented by statistical properties. Here, we present a probabilistic modeling approach aiming to combine projected climatic variables as well as the associated uncertainties from climate model ensembles in conjunction with ERA pathways. We draw upon three examples of ERA that utilized Bayesian networks for this purpose and that also represent methodological advancements for better prediction of future risks to ecosystems. We envision that the modeling approach developed from this international collaboration will contribute to better assessment and management of risks from chemical stressors in a changing climate.Integr Environ Assess Manag2024;20:367–383. © 2023 The Authors.Integrated Environmental Assessment and Managementpublished by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). 

Abstract An understanding of the combined effects of climate change (CC) and other anthropogenic stressors, such as chemical exposures, is essential for improving ecological risk assessments of vulnerable ecosystems. In the Great Barrier Reef, coral reefs are under increasingly severe duress from increasing ocean temperatures, acidification, and cyclone intensities associated with CC. In addition to these stressors, inshore reef systems, such as the Mackay–Whitsunday coastal zone, are being impacted by other anthropogenic stressors, including chemical, nutrient, and sediment exposures related to more intense rainfall events that increase the catchment runoff of contaminated waters. To illustrate an approach for incorporating CC into ecological risk assessment frameworks, we developed an adverse outcome pathway network to conceptually delineate the effects of climate variables and photosystem II herbicide (diuron) exposures on scleractinian corals. This informed the development of a Bayesian network (BN) to quantitatively compare the effects of historical (1975–2005) and future projected climate on inshore hard coral bleaching, mortality, and cover. This BN demonstrated how risk may be predicted for multiple physical and biological stressors, including temperature, ocean acidification, cyclones, sediments, macroalgae competition, and crown of thorns starfish predation, as well as chemical stressors such as nitrogen and herbicides. Climate scenarios included an ensemble of 16 downscaled models encompassing current and future conditions based on multiple emission scenarios for two 30‐year periods. It was found that both climate‐related and catchment‐related stressors pose a risk to these inshore reef systems, with projected increases in coral bleaching and coral mortality under all future climate scenarios. This modeling exercise can support the identification of risk drivers for the prioritization of management interventions to build future resilient reefs.Integr Environ Assess Manag2024;20:401–418. © 2023 Norwegian Institute for Water Research and The Authors.Integrated Environmental Assessment and Managementpublished by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA. 

Infectious disease can reduce labor productivity and incomes, trapping subpopulations in a vicious cycle of ill health and poverty. Efforts to boost African farmers’ agricultural production through fertilizer use can inadvertently promote the growth of aquatic vegetation that hosts disease vectors. Recent trials established that removing aquatic vegetation habitat for snail intermediate hosts reduces schistosomiasis infection rates in children, while converting the harvested vegetation into compost boosts agricultural productivity and incomes. We develop a bioeconomic model that interacts an analytical microeconomic model of agricultural households’ behavior, health status, and incomes over time with a dynamic model of schistosomiasis disease ecology. We calibrate the model with field data from northern Senegal. We show analytically and via simulation that local conversion of invasive aquatic vegetation to compost changes the feedback among interlinked disease, aquatic, and agricultural systems, reducing schistosomiasis infection and increasing incomes relative to the current status quo, in which villagers rarely remove aquatic vegetation. Aquatic vegetation removal disrupts the poverty-disease trap by reducing habitat for snails that vector the infectious helminth and by promoting the production of compost that returns to agricultural soils nutrients that currently leach into surface water from on-farm fertilizer applications. The result is healthier people, more productive labor, cleaner water, more productive agriculture, and higher incomes. Our model illustrates how this ecological intervention changes the feedback between the human and natural systems, potentially freeing rural households from poverty-disease traps.