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  1. McMahon, Katherine (Ed.)
    ABSTRACT Temperature significantly impacts microbial communities’ composition and function, which plays a vital role in the global carbon cycle that determines climate change. Nutrient influxes often accompany rising temperatures due to human activity. While ecological interactions between different microorganisms could shape their response to environmental change, we do not understand how predation may influence these responses in a warmer and increasingly nutrient-rich world. Here, we assess whether predation by a ciliate community of bacterial consumers influences changes in the diversity, biomass, and function of a freshwater prokaryotic community under different temperature and nutrient conditions. We found that predator presence mediates the effects of temperature and nutrients on the total prokaryotic community biomass and composition through various mechanisms, including direct and indirect effects. However, the total community function was resilient. Our study supports previous findings that temperature and nutrients are essential drivers of microbial community composition and function but also demonstrates how predation can mediate these effects, indicating that the biotic context is as important as the abiotic context to understanding microbial responses to novel climates.IMPORTANCEWhile the importance of the abiotic environment in microbial communities has long been acknowledged, how prevalent ecological interactions like predation may influence these microbial community responses to shifting abiotic conditions is largely unknown. Our study addresses the complex interplay between temperature, nutrients, predation, and their joint effects on microbial community diversity and function. Our findings suggest that while temperature and nutrients are fundamental drivers of microbial community dynamics, the presence of predators significantly alters these responses. Our study underscores the impact of abiotic factors on microbial communities and the importance of accounting for the biotic context in which these occur to understand, let alone predict, these responses properly. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available June 27, 2026
  2. Abstract Understanding how populations respond to disturbances represents a major goal for microbial ecology. While several hypotheses have been advanced to explain microbial community compositional changes in response to disturbance, appropriate data to test these hypotheses is scarce, due to the challenges in delineating rare vs. abundant taxa and generalists vs. specialists, a prerequisite for testing the theories. Here, we operationally define these two key concepts by employing the patterns of coverage of a (target) genome by a metagenome to identify rare populations, and by borrowing the proportional similarity index from macroecology to identify generalists. We applied these concepts to time-series (field) metagenomes from the Piver’s Island Coastal Observatory to establish that coastal microbial communities are resilient to major perturbations such as tropical cyclones and (uncommon) cold or warm temperature events, in part due to the response of rare populations. Therefore, these results provide support for the insurance hypothesis [i.e. the rare biosphere has the buffering capacity to mitigate the effects of disturbance]. Additionally, generalists appear to contribute proportionally more than specialists to community adaptation to perturbations like warming, supporting the disturbance-specialization hypothesis [i.e. disturbance favors generalists]. Several of these findings were also observed in replicated laboratory mesocosms that aimed to simulate disturbances such as a rain-driven washout of microbial cells and a labile organic matter release from a phytoplankton bloom. Taken together, our results advance understanding of the mechanisms governing microbial population dynamics under changing environmental conditions and have implications for ecosystem modeling. 
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  3. Abstract Microbes affect the global carbon cycle that influences climate change and are in turn influenced by environmental change. Here, we use data from a long‐term whole‐ecosystem warming experiment at a boreal peatland to answer how temperature and CO2jointly influence communities of abundant, diverse, yet poorly understood, non‐fungi microbial Eukaryotes (protists). These microbes influence ecosystem function directly through photosynthesis and respiration, and indirectly, through predation on decomposers (bacteria and fungi). Using a combination of high‐throughput fluid imaging and 18S amplicon sequencing, we report large climate‐induced, community‐wide shifts in the community functional composition of these microbes (size, shape, and metabolism) that could alter overall function in peatlands. Importantly, we demonstrate a taxonomic convergence but a functional divergence in response to warming and elevated CO2with most environmental responses being contingent on organismal size: warming effects on functional composition are reversed by elevated CO2and amplified in larger microbes but not smaller ones. These findings show how the interactive effects of warming and rising CO2levels could alter the structure and function of peatland microbial food webs—a fragile ecosystem that stores upwards of 25% of all terrestrial carbon and is increasingly threatened by human exploitation. 
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  4. Abstract Understanding the interplay of ocean physics and biology at the submesoscale and below (<30 km) is an ongoing challenge in oceanography. While poorly constrained, these scales may be of critical importance for understanding how changing ocean dynamics will impact marine ecosystems. Fronts in the ocean, regions where two disparate water masses meet and isopycnals become tilted toward vertical, are considered hotspots for biophysical interaction, but there is limited observational evidence at the appropriate scales to assess their importance. Fronts around western boundary currents like the Gulf Stream are of particular interest as these dynamic physical regions are thought to influence both productivity and composition of primary producers; however, how exactly this plays out is not well known. Using satellite data and 2 years of in situ observations across the Gulf Stream front near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, we investigate how submesoscale frontal dynamics could affect biological communities and generate hotspots of productivity and export. We assess the seasonality and phenology of the region, generalize the kilometer‐scale structure of the front, and analyze 69 transects to assess two physical processes of potential biogeochemical importance: cold shelf filament subduction and high salinity Sargasso Sea obduction. We link these processes observationally to meanders in the Gulf Stream and discuss how cold filament subduction could be exporting carbon and how obduction of high salinity water from depth is connected with high chlorophyll‐a. Finally, we report on phytoplankton community composition in each of these features and integrate these observations into our understanding of frontal submesoscale dynamics. 
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  5. Historically, oceanographic time-series have focused on long-term measurements of large open ocean gyres; yet, the coastal oceans, with their high productivity, tidal impacts, human feedbacks, and land-sea coupling, represent critical regions for predicting ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry under global change. The Piver’s Island Coastal Observatory (PICO) time-series, located in the second largest estuarine system on the US East Coast (Albemarle-Pamlico Sound), comprises more than a decade of weekly (or more frequent) measurements of core physical, chemical, and biological oceanographic variables. PICO provides insight into a coastal, mesotrophic ecosystem in an ecologically-diverse and biochemically-active region impacted by global change. Here, we report on a decade of observations focusing on pulse and press ecosystem changes. We observe strong mean annual cycles in environmental variables including temperature (10.1-28.9°C), pH (7.89-8.12), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC: 1965 – 2088 µM), chlorophyll (2.54-5.77 mg Chl m-3), upon which are layered episodic disturbances (e.g., tropical cyclones) that dramatically and persistently (>1 month) impact this ecosystem. Among other variables, long term trends in pH (-0.004 ± 0.001 y-1; p<0.01), DIC (-9.8 ± 1.5 µM y-1; p<0.01) and chlorophyll (-0.17 ± 0.02 µg L-1y-1; p<0.01) are exceeding those observed in the open ocean, suggesting an ecosystem in flux. These analyses provide a benchmark for future studies of the impact of changing climate and oceanographic climatology; further research will use this long-term research to developed targeted sampling and experimental manipulations to better understand ecosystem structure and function. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available April 3, 2026