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Abstract Mangrove forests are critical coastal ecosystems that provide great socio‐ecological services, which are also highly vulnerable to climate change, particularly to sea level rise (SLR). Here we assess changes in mangrove forests in four distinct river/tide/wave‐dominant large deltas along the Indo‐Pacific coast based on 1,336 remote sensing images by machine learning techniques. We find that mangroves are migrating seaward at a rate of 18% ± 12% m/yr, which can offset landward mangroves loss, 67% of which caused by land use conversion. The fact that mangroves are expanding seaward with accretion rates exceeding SLR suggests that climate change has not yet triggered substantial loss in deltaic mangrove forests. Assuming that present environmental conditions do not change and that sediment and organic deposition in the deltaic topsets match SLR rates, we project that 90% of deltaic mangrove forests may start to retreat after 132–194 years. Early inundation of mangroves will occur in wave‐dominated delta.
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Co-evolution of wetland landscapes, flooding, and human settlement in the Mississippi River Delta Plain
Abstract River deltas all over the world are sinking beneath sea-level rise, causing significant threats to natural and social systems. This is due to the combined effects of anthropogenic changes to sediment supply and river flow, subsidence, and sea-level rise, posing an immediate threat to the 500–1,000 million residents, many in megacities that live on deltaic coasts. The Mississippi River Deltaic Plain (MRDP) provides examples for many of the functions and feedbacks, regarding how human river management has impacted source-sink processes in coastal deltaic basins, resulting in human settlements more at risk to coastal storms. The survival of human settlement on the MRDP is arguably coupled to a shifting mass balance between a deltaic landscape occupied by either land built by the Mississippi River or water occupied by the Gulf of Mexico. We developed an approach to compare 50 % L:W isopleths (L:W is ratio of land to water) across the Atchafalaya and Terrebonne Basins to test landscape behavior over the last six decades to measure delta instability in coastal deltaic basins as a function of reduced sediment supply from river flooding. The Atchafalaya Basin, with continued sediment delivery, compared to Terrebonne Basin, with reduced river inputs, allow us to test assumptions of how coastal deltaic basins respond to river management over the last 75 years by analyzing landward migration rate of 50 % L:W isopleths between 1932 and 2010. The average landward migration for Terrebonne Basin was nearly 17,000 m (17 km) compared to only 22 m in Atchafalaya Basin over the last 78 years (p\0.001), resulting in migration rates of 218 m/year (0.22 km/year) and\0.5 m/year, respectively. In addition, freshwater vegetation expanded in Atchafalaya Basin since 1949 compared to migration of intermediate and brackish marshes landward in the Terrebonne Basin. Changes in salt marsh vegetation patterns were very distinct in these two basins with gain of 25 % in the Terrebonne Basin compared to 90 % decrease in the Atchafalaya Basin since 1949. These shifts in vegetation types as L:W ratio decreases with reduced sediment input and increase in salinity also coincide with an increase in wind fetch in Terrebonne Bay. In the upper Terrebonne Bay, where the largest landward migration of the 50 % L:W ratio isopleth occurred, we estimate that the wave power has increased by 50–100 % from 1932 to 2010, as the bathymetric and topographic conditions changed, and increase in maximum storm-surge height also increased owing to the landward migration of the L:W ratio isopleth. We argue that this balance of land relative to water in this delta provides a much clearer understanding of increased flood risk from tropical cyclones rather than just estimates of areal land loss. We describe how coastal deltaic basins of the MRDP can be used as experimental landscapes to provide insights into how varying degrees of sediment delivery to coastal deltaic floodplains change flooding risks of a sinking delta using landward migrations of 50 % L:W isopleths. The nonlinear response of migrating L:W isopleths as wind fetch increases is a critical feedback effect that should influence human river-management decisions in deltaic coast. Changes in land area alone do not capture how corresponding landscape degradation and increased water area can lead to exponential increase in flood risk to human populations in low-lying coastal regions. Reduced land formation in coastal deltaic basins (measured by changes in the land:water ratio) can contribute significantly to increasing flood risks by removing the negative feedback of wetlands on wave and storm-surge that occur during extreme weather events. Increased flood risks will promote population migration as human risks associated with living in a deltaic landscape increase, as land is submerged and coastal inundation threats rise. These system linkages in dynamic deltaic coasts define a balance of river management and human settlement dependent on a certain level of land area within coastal deltaic basins (L).
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- PAR ID:
- 10017028
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Sustainability Science
- ISSN:
- 1862-4065
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Deltaic islands are distinct hydro-environmental zones with global significance in food security, biodiversity conservation, and fishery industry. These islands are the fundamental building blocks of many river deltas. However, deltaic islands are facing severe challenges due to intensive anthropogenic activities, sea level rise, and climate change. In this study, dynamic changes of deltaic islands in Wax Lake Delta (WLD) and Atchafalaya Delta (AD), part of the Atchafalaya River Delta Complex (ARDC) in Louisiana, USA, were quantified based on remote sensing images from 1991 to 2019 through a machine learning method. Results indicate a significant increase in deltaic islands area for the whole ARDC at a rate of 1.29 km2/yr, with local expansion rates of 0.60 km2/yr for WLD and 0.69 km2/yr for AD. All three parts of the WLD naturally prograded seaward, with the western part (WP) and central part (CP) expanding southwestward to the sea, while the eastern part (EP) prograding southeastwards. Differently from WLD, the three parts of AD irregularly expanded seaward under the impacts of anthropogenic activities. The WP and CP of the AD expanded respectively northwestwards and southwestwards, while the EP remained stable. Different drivers dominate the growth of deltaic islands in the WLD and AD. Specifically, fluvial suspended sediment discharge and peak flow events were responsible for the shift in the spatial evolution of WLD, while dredging and sediment disposal contributed to the expansion of AD. Tropical storms with different intensity and landing locations caused short-term deltaic island erosion or expansion. Tropical storms mainly generated erosion on the deltaic islands of the WLD, while causing transient erosion or siltation on the deltaic islands of the AD. In addition, high-intensity hurricanes that made landfall east of the deltas caused more erosion in the AD. Finally, sea level rise, at the current rate of 8.17 mm/yr, will not pose a threat to the deltaic island of WLD, while the eastern part of AD may be at risk of drowning. This study recognizes the complexity of factors influencing the growth of deltaic islands, suggesting that quantitative studies on the deltaic island extent are of critical for the restoration and sustainable management of the Mississippi River Delta and other deltas around the world.more » « less
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Abstract Deltas exhibit spatially and temporally variable subsidence, including vertical displacement due to movement along fault planes. Faulting‐induced subsidence perturbs delta‐surface gradients, potentially causing distributary networks to shift sediment dispersal within the landscape. Sediment dispersal restricted to part of the landscape could hinder billion‐dollar investments aiming to restore delta land, making faulting‐induced subsidence a potentially significant, yet unconstrained hazard to these projects. In this study, we modeled a range of displacement events in disparate deltaic environments, and observe that a channelized connection with the displaced area determines whether a distributary network reorganizes. When this connection exists, the magnitude of distributary network reorganization is predicted by a ratio relating dimensions of faulting‐induced subsidence and channel geometry. We use this ratio to extend results to real‐world deltas and assess hazards to deltaic‐land building projects.more » « less
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River deltas are dynamic systems whose channels can widen, narrow, migrate, avulse, and bifurcate to form new channel networks through time. With hundreds of millions of people living on these globally ubiquitous systems, it is critically important to understand and predict how delta channel networks will evolve over time. Although much work has been done to understand drivers of channel migration on the individual channel scale, a global-scale analysis of the current state of delta morphological change has not been attempted. In this study, we present a methodology for the automatic extraction of channel migration vectors from remotely sensed imagery by combining deep learning and principles from particle image velocimetry (PIV). This methodology is implemented on 48 river delta systems to create a global dataset of decadal-scale delta channel migration. By comparing delta channel migration distributions with a variety of known external forcings, we find that global patterns of channel migration can largely be reconciled with the level of fluvial forcing acting on the delta, sediment flux magnitude, and frequency of flood events. An understanding of modern rates and patterns of channel migration in river deltas is critical for successfully predicting future changes to delta systems and for informing decision makers striving for deltaic resilience.more » « less
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Abstract Arising from the non‐uniform dispersal of sediment and water that build deltaic landscapes, morphological change is a fundamental characteristic of river delta behavior. Thus, sustainable deltas require mobility of their channel networks and attendant shifts in landforms. Both behaviors can be misrepresented as degradation, particularly in context of the “stability” that is generally necessitated by human infrastructure and economies. Taking the Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna Delta as an example, contrary to public perception, this delta system appears to be sustainable at a system scale with high sediment delivery and long‐term net gain in land area. However, many areas of the delta exhibit local dynamics and instability at the scale at which households and communities experience environmental change. Such local landscape “instability” is often cited as evidence that the delta is in decline, whereas much of this change simply reflects the morphodynamics typical of an energetic fluvial‐delta system and do not provide an accurate reflection of overall system health. Here we argue that this disparity between unit‐scale sustainability and local morphodynamic change may be typical of deltaic systems with well‐developed distributary networks and strong spatial gradients in sediment supply and transport energy. Such non‐uniformity and the important connections between network sub‐units (i.e., fluvial, tidal, shelf) suggest that delta risk assessments must integrate local dynamics and sub‐unit connections with unit‐scale behaviors. Structure and dynamics of an integrated deltaic network control the dispersal of water, solids, and solutes to the delta sub‐environment and thus the local to unit‐scale sustainability of the system over time.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-016-0374-4
