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The tropical Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) excites a northward propagating Rossby wave train that largely determines the extratropical surface weather consequences of the MJO. Previous work has demonstrated a significant influence of the tropospheric El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the characteristics of this wave train. Here, composite analyses of ERA-Interim sea level pressure (SLP) and surface air temperature (SAT) data during the extended northern winter season are performed to investigate the additional role of stratospheric forcings [the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the 11-yr solar cycle] in modifying the wave train and its consequences. MJO phase composites of 20–100-day filtered data for the two QBO phases show that, similar to the cool phase of ENSO, the easterly phase of the QBO (QBOE) produces a stronger wave train and associated modulation of SLP and SAT anomalies. In particular, during MJO phases 5–7, positive SLP and negative SAT anomalies in the North Atlantic/Eurasian sector are enhanced during QBOE relative to the westerly phase of the QBO (QBOW). The opposite occurs during the earliest MJO phases. SAT anomalies over eastern North America are also more strongly modulated during QBOE. Although less certain because of the short data record, there is some evidence that the minimum phase of the solar cycle (SMIN) produces a similar increased modulation of SLP and SAT anomalies. The strongest modulations of SLP and SAT anomalies are produced when two or more of the forcings are superposed (e.g., QBOE/cool ENSO, SMIN/QBOE, etc.).
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Modulation of the MJO and North Pacific Storm Track Relationship by the QBO
This study demonstrates a possible impact of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) on the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) – related North Pacific storm track (NPST) change during October–March for the period of 1979–2016. The NPST shows significant intraseasonal changes in response to the MJO. In general, when the MJO convection is located over the Indian Ocean (western to central Pacific), the NPST tends to shift poleward (southward). This MJO-related NPST change has larger amplitude during the easterly phase of the QBO (EQBO) than during its westerly phase (WQBO). The spatial distribution of this NPST change also exhibits significant differences between the two QBO phases with a zonally-elongated pattern during EQBO winters but separated into two centers during WQBO winters. Diagnoses of the dynamical processes associated with the NPST change indicate the dominant roles of the baroclinic energy conversion and downstream energy propagation. The analysis of intraseasonal flow change indicates a larger amplitude of the MJO-related baroclinicity over the North Pacific. This is likely due to a stronger MJO and associated Rossby wave source in EQBO winters, which may give rise to the enhanced amplitude of the NPST change. On the other hand, different spatial distribution of the NPST change is likely a result of a direct impact of the QBO on the NPST. These results suggest that the QBO impact needs to be considered for better reproduction of the MJO-NPST teleconnection in general circulation models which may also benefit sub-seasonal prediction of extratropical storm activities.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1652289
- PAR ID:
- 10057501
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- ISSN:
- 2169-897X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD027977
