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1. Calibration of temperature-dependent ocean microbial processes in the cGENIE.muffin (v0.9.13) Earth system model

   https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-125-2021  

   Crichton, Katherine A. ; Wilson, Jamie D. ; Ridgwell, Andy ; Pearson, Paul N. ( January 2021 , Geoscientific Model Development)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract. Temperature is a master parameter in the marine carbon cycle, exerting a critical control on the rate of biological transformation of a variety of solid and dissolved reactants and substrates. Although in the construction of numerical models of marine carbon cycling, temperature has been long recognised as a key parameter in the production and export of organic matter at the ocean surface, its role in the ocean interior is much less frequently accounted for. There, bacteria (primarily) transform sinking particulate organic matter (POM) into its dissolved constituents and consume dissolved oxygen (and/or other electron acceptors such as sulfate). The nutrients and carbon thereby released then become available for transport back to the surface, influencing biological productivity and atmospheric pCO2, respectively. Given the substantial changes in ocean temperature occurring in the past, as well as in light of current anthropogenic warming, appropriately accounting for the role of temperature in marine carbon cycling may be critical to correctly projecting changes in ocean deoxygenation and the strength of feedbacks on atmosphericpCO2. Here we extend and calibrate a temperature-dependent representation ofmarine carbon cycling in the cGENIE.muffin Earth system model, intended forboth past and future climate applications. In this, we combine atemperature-dependent remineralisation scheme for sinking organic matterwith a biological export production scheme that also includes a dependenceon ambient seawater temperature. Via a parameter ensemble, we jointlycalibrate the two parameterisations by statistically contrasting model-projected fields of nutrients, oxygen, and the stable carbon isotopicsignature (δ13C) of dissolved inorganic carbon in the oceanwith modern observations. We additionally explore the role of temperature inthe creation and recycling of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and hence itsimpact on global carbon cycle dynamics. We find that for the present day, the temperature-dependent version showsa fit to the data that is as good as or better than the existing tuned non-temperature-dependent version of the cGENIE.muffin. The main impact ofaccounting for temperature-dependent remineralisation of POM is in drivinghigher rates of remineralisation in warmer waters, in turn driving a morerapid return of nutrients to the surface and thereby stimulating organicmatter production. As a result, more POM is exported below 80 m but onaverage reaches shallower depths in middle- and low-latitude warmer waterscompared to the standard model. Conversely, at higher latitudes, colderwater temperature reduces the rate of nutrient resupply to the surface andPOM reaches greater depth on average as a result of slower subsurface ratesof remineralisation. Further adding temperature-dependent DOM processeschanges this overall picture only a little, with a slight weakening ofexport production at higher latitudes. As an illustrative application of the new model configuration andcalibration, we take the example of historical warming and briefly assessthe implications for global carbon cycling of accounting for a more completeset of temperature-dependent processes in the ocean. We find that betweenthe pre-industrial era (ca. 1700) and the present (year 2010), in response to asimulated air temperature increase of 0.9 ∘C and an associatedprojected mean ocean warming of 0.12 ∘C (0.6 ∘C insurface waters and 0.02 ∘C in deep waters), a reduction inparticulate organic carbon (POC) export at 80 m of just 0.3 % occurs (or 0.7 % including a temperature-dependent DOM response). However, due to this increased recycling nearer the surface, the efficiency of the transfer of carbon away from the surface (at 80 m) to the deep ocean (at 1040 m) is reduced by 5 %. In contrast, with no assumed temperature-dependent processes impacting production or remineralisation of either POM or DOM, global POC export at 80 m falls by 2.9 % between the pre-industrial era and the present day as a consequence of ocean stratification and reduced nutrient resupply to the surface. Our analysis suggests that increased temperature-dependent nutrient recycling in the upper ocean has offset much of the stratification-induced restriction in its physical transport. 

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2. Decreasing Phanerozoic extinction intensity as a consequence of Earth surface oxygenation and metazoan ecophysiology

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2101900118  

   Stockey, Richard G. ; Pohl, Alexandre ; Ridgwell, Andy ; Finnegan, Seth ; Sperling, Erik A. ( October 2021 , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   The decline in background extinction rates of marine animals through geologic time is an established but unexplained feature of the Phanerozoic fossil record. There is also growing consensus that the ocean and atmosphere did not become oxygenated to near-modern levels until the mid-Paleozoic, coinciding with the onset of generally lower extinction rates. Physiological theory provides us with a possible causal link between these two observations—predicting that the synergistic impacts of oxygen and temperature on aerobic respiration would have made marine animals more vulnerable to ocean warming events during periods of limited surface oxygenation. Here, we evaluate the hypothesis that changes in surface oxygenation exerted a first-order control on extinction rates through the Phanerozoic using a combined Earth system and ecophysiological modeling approach. We find that although continental configuration, the efficiency of the biological carbon pump in the ocean, and initial climate state all impact the magnitude of modeled biodiversity loss across simulated warming events, atmospheric oxygen is the dominant predictor of extinction vulnerability, with metabolic habitat viability and global ecophysiotype extinction exhibiting inflection points around 40% of present atmospheric oxygen. Given this is the broad upper limit for estimates of early Paleozoic oxygen levels, our results are consistent with the relative frequency of high-magnitude extinction events (particularly those not included in the canonical big five mass extinctions) early in the Phanerozoic being a direct consequence of limited early Paleozoic oxygenation and temperature-dependent hypoxia responses.

    

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3. Environmental and trilobite diversity changes during the middle-late Cambrian SPICE event

   https://doi.org/10.1130/B36421.1  

   Zhang, Lei ; Algeo, Thomas J. ; Zhao, Laishi ; Dahl, Tais W. ; Chen, Zhong-Qiang ; Zhang, Zihu ; Poulton, Simon W. ; Hughes, Nigel C. ; Gou, Xueqing ; Li, Chao ( May 2023 , Geological Society of America Bulletin)

   The Steptoean Positive Carbon Isotope Excursion (SPICE) event at ca. 497−494 Ma was a major carbon-cycle perturbation of the late Cambrian that coincided with rapid diversity changes among trilobites. Several scenarios (e.g., climatic/oceanic cooling and seawater anoxia) have been proposed to account for an extinction of trilobites at the onset of SPICE, but the exact mechanism remains unclear. Here, we present a chemostratigraphic study of carbonate carbon and carbonate-associated sulfate sulfur isotopes (δ13Ccarb and δ34SCAS) and elemental redox proxies (UEF, MoEF, and Corg/P), augmented by secular trilobite diversity data, from both upper slope (Wangcun) and lower slope (Duibian) successions from the Jiangnan Slope, South China, spanning the Drumian to lower Jiangshanian. Redox data indicate locally/regionally well-oxygenated conditions throughout the SPICE event in both study sections except for low-oxygen (hypoxic) conditions within the rising limb of the SPICE (early-middle Paibian) at Duibian. As in coeval sections globally, the reported δ13Ccarb and δ34SCAS profiles exhibit first-order coupling throughout the SPICE event, reflecting co-burial of organic matter and pyrite controlled by globally integrated marine productivity, organic preservation rates, and shelf hypoxia. Increasing δ34SCAS in the “Early SPICE” interval (late Guzhangian) suggests that significant environmental change (e.g., global-oceanic hypoxia) was under way before the global carbon cycle was markedly affected. Assessment of trilobite range data within a high-resolution biostratigraphic framework for the middle-late Cambrian facilitated re-evaluation of the relationship of the SPICE to contemporaneous biodiversity changes. Trilobite diversity in South China declined during the Early SPICE (corresponding to the End-Marjuman Biomere Extinction, or EMBE, of Laurentia) and at the termination of the SPICE (corresponding to the End-Steptoean Biomere Extinction, or ESBE, of Laurentia), consistent with biotic patterns from other cratons. We infer that oxygen minimum zone and/or shelf hypoxia expanded as a result of locally enhanced productivity due to intensified upwelling following climatic cooling, and that expanded hypoxia played a major role in the EMBE at the onset of SPICE. During the SPICE event, global-ocean ventilation promoted marine biotic recovery, but termination of SPICE-related cooling in the late Paibian may have reduced global-ocean circulation, triggering further redox changes that precipitated the ESBE. Major changes in both marine environmental conditions and trilobite diversity during the late Guzhangian demonstrate that the SPICE event began earlier than the Guzhangian-Paibian boundary, as previously proposed. 

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4. Expedition 392 Scientific Prospectus: Agulhas Plateau Cretaceous Climate

   https://doi.org/10.14379/iodp.sp.392.2020  

   Uenzelmann-Neben, G. ; Bohaty, S.M. ; Kulhanek, D.K. ( April 2020 , Scientific prospectus)

   null (Ed.)

   The long-term climate transition from the Cretaceous greenhouse to the late Paleogene icehouse provides an opportunity to study changes in Earth system dynamics associated with large changes in global temperature and atmospheric CO2 levels. Elevated CO2 levels during the mid-Cretaceous supergreenhouse interval (~95–80 Ma) resulted in low meridional temperature gradients, and oceanic deposition during this time was punctuated by widespread episodes of severe anoxia termed oceanic anoxic events, resulting in enhanced burial of organic carbon in conjunction with transient carbon isotope and temperature excursions. The prolonged interval of mid-Cretaceous warmth and subsequent Late Cretaceous–Paleogene climate trends, as well as intervening short-lived climate excursions, are poorly documented in the southern high latitudes. International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 392 aims to drill five sites in the southwest Indian Ocean on the Agulhas Plateau and in the Transkei Basin, positioned at paleolatitudes of 65°–58°S during the Late Cretaceous (100–66 Ma) and in the new and evolving gateway between the South Atlantic, Southern Ocean, and southern Indian Ocean basins. Recovery of basement rocks and expanded sedimentary sequences from the Agulhas Plateau and Transkei Basin will provide a wealth of new data to (i) determine the nature and origin of the Agulhas Plateau and (ii) significantly advance the understanding of how Cretaceous temperatures, ocean circulation, and sedimentation patterns evolved as CO2 levels rose and fell and the breakup of Gondwana progressed. Importantly, Expedition 392 drilling will test competing hypotheses concerning Agulhas Plateau large igneous province formation and the role of deep ocean circulation changes through southern gateways in controlling Late Cretaceous–Paleogene climate evolution. 

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5. Data-constrained assessment of ocean circulation changes since the middle Miocene in an Earth system model

   https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2223-2021  

   Crichton, Katherine A. ; Ridgwell, Andy ; Lunt, Daniel J. ; Farnsworth, Alex ; Pearson, Paul N. ( January 2021 , Climate of the Past)

   Abstract. Since the middle Miocene (15 Ma, million years ago), the Earth's climate has undergone a long-term cooling trend, characterised by a reduction in ocean temperatures of up to 7–8 ∘C. The causes of this cooling are primarily thought to be due to tectonic plate movements driving changes in large-scale ocean circulation patterns, and hence heat redistribution, in conjunction with a drop in atmospheric greenhouse gas forcing (and attendant ice-sheet growth and feedback). In this study, we assess the potential to constrain the evolving patterns of global ocean circulation and cooling over the last 15 Ma by assimilating a variety of marine sediment proxy data in an Earth system model. We do this by first compiling surface and benthic ocean temperature and benthic carbon-13 (δ13C) data in a series of seven time slices spaced at approximately 2.5 Myr intervals. We then pair this with a corresponding series of tectonic and climate boundary condition reconstructions in the cGENIE (“muffin” release) Earth system model, including alternative possibilities for an open vs. closed Central American Seaway (CAS) from 10 Ma onwards. In the cGENIE model, we explore uncertainty in greenhouse gas forcing and the magnitude of North Pacific to North Atlantic salinity flux adjustment required in the model to create an Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) of a specific strength, via a series of 12 (one for each tectonic reconstruction) 2D parameter ensembles. Each ensemble member is then tested against the observed global temperature and benthic δ13C patterns. We identify that a relatively high CO2 equivalent forcing of 1120 ppm is required at 15 Ma in cGENIE to reproduce proxy temperature estimates in the model, noting that this CO2 forcing is dependent on the cGENIE model's climate sensitivity and that it incorporates the effects of all greenhouse gases. We find that reproducing the observed long-term cooling trend requires a progressively declining greenhouse gas forcing in the model. In parallel to this, the strength of the AMOC increases with time despite a reduction in the salinity of the surface North Atlantic over the cooling period, attributable to falling intensity of the hydrological cycle and to lowering polar temperatures, both caused by CO2-driven global cooling. We also find that a closed CAS from 10 Ma to present shows better agreement between benthic δ13C patterns and our particular series of model configurations and data. A final outcome of our analysis is a pronounced ca. 1.5 ‰ decline occurring in atmospheric (and ca. 1 ‰ ocean surface) δ13C that could be used to inform future δ13C-based proxy reconstructions. 

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