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1. Demonstrating a systems approach for integrating disparate data streams to inform decisions on children’s environmental health

   https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-12682-3  

   Hubal, Elaine A. Cohen; DeLuca, Nicole M.; Mullikin, Ashley; Slover, Rachel; Little, John C.; Reif, David M. (February 2022, BMC Public Health)

   Abstract BackgroundThe use of systems science methodologies to understand complex environmental and human health relationships is increasing. Requirements for advanced datasets, models, and expertise limit current application of these approaches by many environmental and public health practitioners. MethodsA conceptual system-of-systems model was applied for children in North Carolina counties that includes example indicators of children’s physical environment (home age, Brownfield sites, Superfund sites), social environment (caregiver’s income, education, insurance), and health (low birthweight, asthma, blood lead levels). The web-based Toxicological Prioritization Index (ToxPi) tool was used to normalize the data, rank the resulting vulnerability index, and visualize impacts from each indicator in a county. Hierarchical clustering was used to sort the 100 North Carolina counties into groups based on similar ToxPi model results. The ToxPi charts for each county were also superimposed over a map of percentage county population under age 5 to visualize spatial distribution of vulnerability clusters across the state. ResultsData driven clustering for this systems model suggests 5 groups of counties. One group includes 6 counties with the highest vulnerability scores showing strong influences from all three categories of indicators (social environment, physical environment, and health). A second group contains 15 counties with high vulnerability scores driven by strong influences from home age in the physical environment and poverty in the social environment. A third group is driven by data on Superfund sites in the physical environment. ConclusionsThis analysis demonstrated how systems science principles can be used to synthesize holistic insights for decision making using publicly available data and computational tools, focusing on a children’s environmental health example. Where more traditional reductionist approaches can elucidate individual relationships between environmental variables and health, the study of collective, system-wide interactions can enable insights into the factors that contribute to regional vulnerabilities and interventions that better address complex real-world conditions. 

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2. Using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps to Assess Liveability in Slum Upgrading Schemes: Case of Pune, India

   https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci5020044  

   Nath, Subhashree; Karutz, Raphael (June 2021, Urban Science)

   null (Ed.)

   Liveability assessments of informal urban settlements are scarce. In India, a number of slum upgrading schemes have been implemented over the last decades aiming at better living conditions. However, these schemes rarely consider improvement in liveability as an explicit criterion, assuming that better physical conditions and the provision of basic services inevitably lead to better liveability. We use Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) to analyse liveability in four different informal settlements in Pune (India). We compare the liveability by conducting semi-structured interviews with residents and by analysing them in individual and aggregated FCMs. Each settlement represents an archetypical form of the upgradation process: non-upgraded (base case), in-situ upgraded, relocated, and temporary resettlement. The FCMs show that the liveability indicators availability of community space, proximity to public transportation, feeling of belonging, and good relationship with neighbours and community are central elements of these neighbourhoods’ liveability. The results suggest that upgradation may lead to an improved overall liveability but can also reduce it if not designed properly. The fostering of community agency, an integration of the neighbourhood into the formal city fabric, and the maintaining of cohesion during the shift from horizontal to vertical living emerged as critical factors. To ensure sustainable integration of liveability considerations in slum upgrading schemes, we suggest using indicators well-adapted to the local context, co-created with local experts and stakeholders, as well as periodic post-occupancy liveability evaluations. 

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3. Cosmological structure formation and soliton phase transition in fuzzy dark matter with axion self-interactions

   https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stad694  

   Mocz, Philip; Fialkov, Anastasia; Vogelsberger, Mark; Boylan-Kolchin, Michael; Chavanis, Pierre-Henri; Amin, Mustafa A.; Bose, Sownak; Dome, Tibor; Hernquist, Lars; Lancaster, Lachlan; et al (March 2023, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society)

   ABSTRACT We investigate cosmological structure formation in fuzzy dark matter (FDM) with the attractive self-interaction (SI) with numerical simulations. Such a SI would arise if the FDM boson were an ultra-light axion, which has a strong CP symmetry-breaking scale (decay constant). Although weak, the attractive SI may be strong enough to counteract the quantum ‘pressure’ and alter structure formation. We find in our simulations that the SI can enhance small-scale structure formation, and soliton cores above a critical mass undergo a phase transition, transforming from dilute to dense solitons. 

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4. A Comprehensive and Spatially Explicit Regional Vulnerability Assessment of the Forest Industry to Climate Change

   https://doi.org/10.1093/jofore/fvab057  

   Soucy, Alyssa; Rahimzadeh-Bajgiran, Parinaz; De_Urioste-Stone, Sandra; Weiskittel, Aaron; Duveneck, Matthew_J; McGreavy, Bridie (November 2021, Journal of Forestry)

   Abstract We conducted a spatially explicit vulnerability assessment of the forest industry in Maine, USA, to climate change in an effort to (1) advance a spatial framework for assessing forest industry vulnerability and (2) increase our understanding of Maine’s specific vulnerabilities to climate change in order to guide decision-making. We applied a bottom-up indicator approach to evaluate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to climate change using both biophysical and social indicators, largely driven by participatory processes. Our approach enabled us to synthesize and aggregate indicators of regional importance to evaluate vulnerability, allowing us to simultaneously examine combinations of potential changes. We found that each Maine county had its own unique combination of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators, with overall vulnerability highest in the rural northern and western parts of the state, where forest industry activities are most prevalent. However, results also indicate that although increased stress from climate-related changes can negatively affect Maine’s forest via high exposure, reduced sensitivities and increased adaptive capacity have the potential to largely decrease overall vulnerability in many parts of the state. 

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5. Compounding hazards and intersecting vulnerabilities: experiences and responses to extreme heat during COVID-19

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1760  

   Wilhelmi, O V; Howe, P D; Hayden, M H; O’Lenick, C R (August 2021, Environmental Research Letters)

   Abstract Extreme heat is a major threat to human health worldwide. The COVID-19 pandemic, with its complexity and global reach, created unprecedented challenges for public health and highlighted societal vulnerability to hazardous hot weather. In this study, we used data from a three-wave nationally representative survey of 3036 American adults to examine how the COVID-19 pandemic affected extreme heat vulnerability during the summer of 2020. We used mixed effects models to examine the roles of socio-demographic characteristics and pandemic-related factors in the distribution of negative heat effects and experiences across the United States. The survey findings show that over a quarter of the US population experienced heat-related symptoms during the summer of 2020. Mixed effects models demonstrate that among all socio-economic groups, those who were most vulnerable were women, those in low-income households, unemployed or on furlough, and people who identify as Hispanic or Latino or as other non-white census categories (including Asian, American Indian or Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander, and multi-racial US residents). The study findings indicate that millions of people in the US had difficulty coping with or responding to extreme heat because of the direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Limited access to cooling as well as COVID-19 related social isolation played a major role in adverse heat health effects. Geographically, the South and the West of the US stood out in terms of self-reported negative heat effects. Overall, the study suggests that the intersection of two health hazards—extreme heat and coronavirus SARS-CoV2—amplified existing systemic vulnerabilities and expanded the demographic range of people vulnerable to heat stress. 

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