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Today’s data plane network telemetry systems en- able network operators to capture fine-grained data streams of many different network traffic features (e.g., loss or flow arrival rate) at line rate. This capability facilitates data-driven approaches to network management and motivates leveraging either statistical or machine learning models (e.g., for forecasting network data streams) for automating various network management tasks. However, current studies on network automation- related problems are in general not concerned with issues that arise when deploying these models in practice (e.g., (re)training overhead). In this paper, we examine various training-related aspects that affect the accuracy and overhead (and thus feasibility) of both LSTM and SARIMA, two popular types of models used for forecasting real-world network data streams in telemetry systems. In particular, we study the impact of the size, choice, and recency of the training data on accuracy and overhead and explore using separate models for different segments of a data stream (e.g., per-hour models). Using two real-world data streams, we show that (i) per-hour LSTM models exhibit high accuracy after training with only 24 hours of data, (ii) the accuracy of LSTM models does not depend on the recency of the training data (i.e., no frequent (re)training is required), (iii) SARIMA models can have comparable or lower accuracy than LSTM models, and (iv) certain segments of the data streams are inherently more challenging to forecast than others. While the specific findings reported in this paper depend on the considered data streams and specified models, we argue that irrespective of the data streams at hand, a similar examination of training-related aspects is needed before deploying any statistical or machine learning model in practice.
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A Study on Graph-Structured Recurrent Neural Networks and Sparsification with Application to Epidemic Forecasting
We study epidemic forecasting on real-world health data by a graph-structured recurrent neural network (GSRNN). We achieve state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy on the benchmark CDC dataset. To improve model efficiency, we sparsify the network weights via a transformed-1 penalty without losing prediction accuracy in numerical experiments.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1737770
- PAR ID:
- 10138641
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- WCGO 2019: Optimization of Complex Systems: Theory, Models, Algorithms and Applications
- Volume:
- 991
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 730-739
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-21803-4_73
