An official website of the United States government
Given an urban development plan and the historical traffic observations over the road network, the Conditional Urban Traffic Estimation problem aims to estimate the resulting traffic status prior to the deployment of the plan. This problem is of great importance to urban development and transportation management, yet is very challenging because the plan would change the local travel demands drastically and the new travel demand pattern might be unprecedented in the historical data. To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel Conditional Urban Traffic Generative Adversarial Network (Curb-GAN), which provides traffic estimations in consecutive time slots based on different (unprecedented) travel demands, thus enables urban planners to accurately evaluate urban plans before deploying them. The proposed Curb-GAN adopts and advances the conditional GAN structure through a few novel ideas: (1) dealing with various travel demands as the "conditions" and generating corresponding traffic estimations, (2) integrating dynamic convolutional layers to capture the local spatial auto-correlations along the underlying road networks, (3) employing self-attention mechanism to capture the temporal dependencies of the traffic across different time slots. Extensive experiments on two real-world spatio-temporal datasets demonstrate that our Curb-GAN outperforms major baseline methods in estimation accuracy under various conditions and can produce more meaningful estimations.
more »
« less
DeepIST: Deep Image-based Spatio-Temporal Network for Travel Time Estimation
Estimating the travel time for a given path is a fundamental problem in many urban transportation systems. However, prior works fail to well capture moving behaviors embedded in paths and thus do not estimate the travel time accurately. To fill in this gap, in this work, we propose a novel neural network framework, namely Deep Image-based Spatio-Temporal network (DeepIST), for travel time estimation of a given path. The novelty of DeepIST lies in the following aspects:1) we propose to plot a path as a sequence of -generalized images"which include sub-paths along with additional information, such as traffic conditions, road network and traffic signals, in order to harness the power of convolutional neural network model (CNN)on image processing; 2) we design a novel two-dimensional CNN, namely PathCNN, to extract spatial patterns for lines in images by regularization and adopting multiple pooling methods; and 3) we apply a one-dimensional CNN to capture temporal patterns among the spatial patterns along the paths for the estimation. Empirical results show that DeepIST soundly outperforms the state-of-the-art travel time estimation models by 24.37% to 25.64% of mean absolute error (MAE) in multiple large-scale real-world datasets.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1717084
- PAR ID:
- 10170812
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the 28th ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 69 to 78
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
The eco-toll estimation problem quantifies the expected environmental cost (e.g., energy consumption, exhaust emissions) for a vehicle to travel along a path. This problem is important for societal applications such as eco-routing, which aims to find paths with the lowest exhaust emissions or energy need. The challenges of this problem are threefold: (1) the dependence of a vehicle's eco-toll on its physical parameters; (2) the lack of access to data with eco-toll information; and (3) the influence of contextual information (i.e. the connections of adjacent segments in the path) on the eco-toll of road segments. Prior work on eco-toll estimation has mostly relied on pure data-driven approaches and has high estimation errors given the limited training data. To address these limitations, we propose a novel Eco-toll estimation Physics-informed Neural Network framework (Eco-PiNN) using three novel ideas, namely, (1) a physics-informed decoder that integrates the physical laws governing vehicle dynamics into the network, (2) an attention-based contextual information encoder, and (3) a physics-informed regularization to reduce overfitting. Experiments on real-world heavy-duty truck data show that the proposed method can greatly improve the accuracy of eco-toll estimation compared with state-of-the-art methods. *The full version of the paper can be accessed at https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.05739more » « less
-
Urban traffic status (e.g., traffic speed and volume) is highly dynamic in nature, namely, varying across space and evolving over time. Thus, predicting such traffic dynamics is of great importance to urban development and transportation management. However, it is very challenging to solve this problem due to spatial-temporal dependencies and traffic uncertainties. In this article, we solve the traffic dynamics prediction problem from Bayesian meta-learning perspective and propose a novel continuous spatial-temporal meta-learner (cST-ML), which is trained on a distribution of traffic prediction tasks segmented by historical traffic data with the goal of learning a strategy that can be quickly adapted to related but unseen traffic prediction tasks. cST-ML tackles the traffic dynamics prediction challenges by advancing the Bayesian black-box meta-learning framework through the following new points: (1) cST-ML captures the dynamics of traffic prediction tasks using variational inference, and to better capture the temporal uncertainties within tasks, cST-ML performs as a rolling window within each task; (2) cST-ML has novel designs in architecture, where CNN and LSTM are embedded to capture the spatial-temporal dependencies between traffic status and traffic-related features; (3) novel training and testing algorithms for cST-ML are designed. We also conduct experiments on two real-world traffic datasets (taxi inflow and traffic speed) to evaluate our proposed cST-ML. The experimental results verify that cST-ML can significantly improve the urban traffic prediction performance and outperform all baseline models especially when obvious traffic dynamics and temporal uncertainties are presented.more » « less
-
null (Ed.)Urban traffic status (e.g., traffic speed and volume) is highly dynamic in nature, namely, varying across space and evolving over time. Thus, predicting such traffic dynamics is of great importance to urban development and transportation management. However, it is very challenging to solve this problem due to spatial-temporal dependencies and traffic uncertainties. In this paper, we solve the traffic dynamics prediction problem from Bayesian meta-learning perspective and propose a novel continuous spatial-temporal meta-learner (cST-ML), which is trained on a distribution of traffic prediction tasks segmented by historical traffic data with the goal of learning a strategy that can be quickly adapted to related but unseen traffic prediction tasks. cST-ML tackles the traffic dynamics prediction challenges by advancing the Bayesian black-box meta-learning framework through the following new points: 1) cST-ML captures the dynamics of traffic prediction tasks using variational inference; 2) cST-ML has novel designs in architecture, where CNN and LSTM are embedded to capture the spatial-temporal dependencies between traffic status and traffic related features; 3) novel training and testing algorithms for cST-ML are designed. We also conduct experiments on two real-world traffic datasets (taxi inflow and traffic speed) to evaluate our proposed cST-ML. The experimental results verify that cST-ML can significantly improve the urban traffic prediction performance and outperform all baseline models.more » « less
-
The trajectory-aware lowest-cost path selection problem aims to find the lowest-cost path using trajectory data. Trajectory data is valuable since it carries information about travel cost along paths, and also reflects travelers' routing preference. Path-centric travel cost estimation models using trajectory data grows popular recently, which considers the auto-correlation of the energy consumption on different segments of a path. However, path-centric models are more computationally expensive than edge-centric models. The main challenge of this problem is that the travel cost of every candidate path explored during the process of searching for the lowest-cost path need to be estimated, resulting in high computational cost. The current path selection algorithms that use path-centric cost estimation models still follow the pattern of "path + edge" when exploring candidate paths, which may result in redundant computation. We introduce a trajectory-aware graph model in which each node is a maximal trajectory-aware path. Two nodes in the trajectory-aware graph are linked by an edge if their union forms a trajectory-union path. We then propose a path selection algorithm to find a path in the proposed trajectory-aware graph which corresponds to the lowest-cost path in the input spatial network. We prove theoretically the proposed algorithm is correct and complete. Moreover, we prove theoretically that the proposed path selection algorithm cost much less computational time than the algorithm used in the related work, and validate it through experiments using real-world trajectory data.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- https://doi.org/10.1145/3357384.3357870
