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1. Integrating new sea‐level scenarios into coastal risk and adaptation assessments: An ongoing process

   https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.706  

   Nicholls, Robert J.; Hanson, Susan E.; Lowe, Jason A.; Slangen, Aimée B. A.; Wahl, Thomas; Hinkel, Jochen; Long, Antony J. (March 2021, WIREs Climate Change)

   Abstract The release of new and updated sea‐level rise (SLR) information, such as from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports, needs to be better anticipated in coastal risk and adaptation assessments. This requires risk and adaptation assessments to be regularly reviewed and updated as needed, reflecting the new information but retaining useful information from earlier assessments. In this paper, updated guidance on the types of SLR information available is presented, including for sea‐level extremes. An intercomparison of the evolution of the headline projected ranges across all the IPCC reports show an increase from the fourth and fifth assessments to the most recent “Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate” assessment. IPCC reports have begun to highlight the importance of potential high‐end sea‐level response, mainly reflecting uncertainties in the Greenland/Antarctic ice sheet components, and how this might be considered in scenarios. The methods that are developed here are practical and consider coastal risk assessment, adaptation planning, and long‐term decision‐making to be an ongoing process and ensure that despite the large uncertainties, pragmatic adaptation decisions can be made. It is concluded that new sea‐level information should not be seen as an automatic reason for abandoning existing assessments, but as an opportunity to review (i) the assessment's robustness in the light of new science and (ii) the utility of proactive adaptation and planning strategies, especially over the more uncertain longer term. This article is categorized under:Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Scenario Development and Application 

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2. Permafrost thaw subsidence, sea-level rise, and erosion are transforming Alaska’s Arctic coastal zone

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2409411121  

   Creel, Roger; Guimond, Julia; Jones, Benjamin_M; Nielsen, David_M; Bristol, Emily; Tweedie, Craig_E; Overduin, Pier_Paul (December 2024, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   Arctic shorelines are vulnerable to climate change impacts as sea level rises, permafrost thaws, storms intensify, and sea ice thins. Seventy-five years of aerial and satellite observations have established coastal erosion as an increasing Arctic hazard. However, other hazards at play—for instance, the cumulative impact that sea-level rise and permafrost thaw subsidence will have on permafrost shorelines—have received less attention, preventing assessments of these processes’ impacts compared to and combined with coastal erosion. Alaska’s Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) is ideal for such assessments because of the high-density observations of topography, coastal retreat rates, and permafrost characteristics, and importance to Indigenous communities and oilfield infrastructure. Here, we produce 21st-century projections of Arctic shoreline position that include erosion, permafrost subsidence, and sea-level rise. Focusing on the ACP, we merge 5 m topography, satellite-derived coastal lake depth estimates, and empirical assessments of land subsidence due to permafrost thaw with projections of coastal erosion and sea-level rise for medium and high emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s AR6 Report. We find that by 2100, erosion and inundation will together transform the ACP, leading to 6-8x more land loss than coastal erosion alone and disturbing 8-11x more organic carbon. Without mitigating measures, by 2100, coastal change could damage 40 to 65% of infrastructure in present-day ACP coastal villages and 10 to 20% of oilfield infrastructure. Our findings highlight the risks that compounding climate hazards pose to coastal communities and underscore the need for adaptive planning for Arctic coastlines in the 21st century. 

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3. BRIDGING THE GAP BETWEEN POLICY, PRACTICE, AND ACADEMIA: Unleashing Social Innovation and Entrepreneurship for Societal Benefit

   https://doi.org/DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32704.33284  

   Robinson, Jeffrey A.; Dougherty, Deborah (January 2014, NSF Workshop)

   This report presents the findings of a workshop on social innovation funded by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. SMA-1240596. The workshop took place August 27-28, 2013 at Rutgers Business School in Newark, New Jersey. The workshop that explored the intersection of the social, behavioral, and economic sciences and social policy and entrepreneurship. The goal was to develop a research agenda in social innovation and establish collaborative arrangements to build bridges between knowledge creators and practitioners. A research agenda is presented and recommendations are made for future work in social innovation. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation 

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4. The Political Complexity of Coastal Flood Risk Reduction: Lessons for Climate Adaptation Public Works in the U.S.

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001575  

   Rasmussen, D_J; Kopp, Robert_E; Shwom, Rachael; Oppenheimer, Michael (February 2021, Earth's Future)

   Abstract Coastal climate adaptation public works, such as storm surge barriers and levees, are central elements of several current proposals to limit damages from coastal storms and sea‐level rise in the United States. Academic analysis of these public works projects is dominated by technocratic and engineering‐driven frameworks. However, social conflict, laws, political incentives, governance structures, and other political factors have played pivotal roles in determining the fate of government‐led coastal flood risk reduction efforts. Here, we review the ways in which politics has enabled or hindered the conception, design, and implementation of coastal risk reduction projects in the U.S. We draw from the literature in natural hazards, infrastructure, political science, and climate adaptation and give supporting examples. Overall, we find that (1) multiple floods are often needed to elicit earnest planning; (2) strong and continuous leadership from elected officials is necessary to advance projects; (3) stakeholder participation during the design stage has improved outcomes; (4) legal challenges to procedural and substantive shortcomings under environmental protection statutes present an enduring obstacle to implementing megastructure proposals. 

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5. Usable Science for Managing the Risks of Sea‐Level Rise

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001145  

   Kopp, Robert E.; Gilmore, Elisabeth A.; Little, Christopher M.; Lorenzo‐Trueba, Jorge; Ramenzoni, Victoria C.; Sweet, William V. (December 2019, Earth's Future)

   Sea‐level rise sits at the frontier of usable climate climate change research, because it involves natural and human systems with long lags, irreversible losses, and deep uncertainty. For example, many of the measures to adapt to sea‐level rise involve infrastructure and land‐use decisions, which can have multigenerational lifetimes and will further influence responses in both natural and human systems. Thus, sea‐level science has increasingly grappled with the implications of (1) deep uncertainty in future climate system projections, particularly of human emissions and ice sheet dynamics; (2) the overlay of slow trends and high‐frequency variability (e.g., tides and storms) that give rise to many of the most relevant impacts; (3) the effects of changing sea level on the physical exposure and vulnerability of ecological and socioeconomic systems; and (4) the challenges of engaging stakeholder communities with the scientific process in a way that genuinely increases the utility of the science for adaptation decision making. Much fundamental climate system research remains to be done, but many of the most critical issues sit at the intersection of natural sciences, social sciences, engineering, decision science, and political economy. Addressing these issues demands a better understanding of the coupled interactions of mean and extreme sea levels, coastal geomorphology, economics, and migration; decision‐first approaches that identify and focus research upon those scientific uncertainties most relevant to concrete adaptation choices; and a political economy that allows usable science to become used science. 

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