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1. Local Temporal Compression for (Globally) Evolving Spatial Surfaces

   https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-37188-3_19  

   Teng, Xu ; Giri, Prabin ; Dwyer, Matthew ; Trajcevski, Goce ( October 2019 , Big Data Analytics - 7th International Conference, {BDA} 2019, Ahmedabad, India, December 17-20, 2019, Proceedings)

   null (Ed.)

   The advances in the Internet of Things (IoT) paradigm have enabled generation of large volumes of data from multiple domains, capturing the evolution of various physical and social phenomena of interest. One of the consequences of such enormous data generation is that it needs to be stored, processed and queried – along with having the answers presented in an intuitive manner. A number of techniques have been proposed to alleviate the impact of the sheer volume of the data on the storage and processing overheads, along with bandwidth consumption – and, among them, the most dominant is compression. In this paper, we consider a setting in which multiple geographically dispersed data sources are generating data streams – however, the values from the discrete locations are used to construct a representation of continuous (time-evolving) surface. We have used different compression techniques to reduce the size of the raw measurements in each location, and we analyzed the impact of the compression on the quality of approximating the evolution of the shapes corresponding to a particular phenomenon. Specifically, we use the data from discrete locations to construct a TIN (triangulated irregular networks), which evolves over time as the measurements in each locations change. To analyze the global impact of the different compression techniques that are applied locally, we used different surface distance functions between raw-data TINs and compressed data TINs. We provide detailed discussions based on our experimental observations regarding the corresponding (compression method, distance function) pairs. 

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2. STELAR: Spatio-temporal Tensor Factorization with Latent Epidemiological Regularization

   https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v35i6.16615  

   Nikos Kargas, Cheng Qian ( January 2021 , The Thirty-Fifth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-21))

   Accurate prediction of the transmission of epidemic diseases such as COVID-19 is crucial for implementing effective mitigation measures. In this work, we develop a tensor method to predict the evolution of epidemic trends for many regions simultaneously. We construct a 3-way spatio-temporal tensor (location, attribute, time) of case counts and propose a nonnegative tensor factorization with latent epidemiological model regularization named STELAR. Unlike standard tensor factorization methods which cannot predict slabs ahead, STELAR enables long-term prediction by incorporating latent temporal regularization through a system of discrete time difference equations of a widely adopted epidemiological model. We use latent instead of location/attribute-level epidemiological dynamics to capture common epidemic profile sub-types and improve collaborative learning and prediction. We conduct experiments using both county- and state level COVID-19 data and show that our model can identify interesting latent patterns of the epidemic. Finally, we evaluate the predictive ability of our method and show superior performance compared to the baselines, achieving up to 21% lower root mean square error and 25% lower mean absolute error for county-level prediction. 

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3. Evaluating Contour Band Depth as a Method for Understanding Ensemble Uncertainty

   https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-22-0281.1  

   Santer, Henry ; Poterjoy, Jonathan ; McCurry, Joshua ( August 2023 , Monthly Weather Review)

   Estimating and predicting the state of the atmosphere is a probabilistic problem for which an ensemble modeling approach often is taken to represent uncertainty in the system. Common methods for examining uncertainty and assessing performance for ensembles emphasize pointwise statistics or marginal distributions. However, these methods lose specific information about individual ensemble members. This paper explores contour band depth (cBD), a method of analyzing uncertainty in terms of contours of scalar fields. cBD is fully nonparametric and induces an ordering on ensemble members that leads to box-and-whisker-plot-type visualizations of uncertainty for two-dimensional data. By applying cBD to synthetic ensembles, we demonstrate that it provides enhanced information about the spatial structure of ensemble uncertainty. We also find that the usefulness of the cBD analysis depends on the presence of multiple modes and multiple scales in the ensemble of contours. Finally, we apply cBD to compare various convection-permitting forecasts from different ensemble prediction systems and find that the value it provides in real-world applications compared to standard analysis methods exhibits clear limitations. In some cases, contour boxplots can provide deeper insight into differences in spatial characteristics between the different ensemble forecasts. Nevertheless, identification of outliers using cBD is not always intuitive, and the method can be especially challenging to implement for flow that exhibits multiple spatial scales (e.g., discrete convective cells embedded within a mesoscale weather system).

   Predictions of Earth’s atmosphere inherently come with some degree of uncertainty owing to incomplete observations and the chaotic nature of the system. Understanding that uncertainty is critical when drawing scientific conclusions or making policy decisions from model predictions. In this study, we explore a method for describing model uncertainty when the quantities of interest are well represented by contours. The method yields a quantitative visualization of uncertainty in both the location and the shape of contours to an extent that is not possible with standard uncertainty quantification methods and may eventually prove useful for the development of more robust techniques for evaluating and validating numerical weather models.

    

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4. eBASCS: Disentangling overlapping astronomical sources II, using spatial, spectral, and temporal information

   https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stab1456  

   Meyer, Antoine D ; van Dyk, David A ; Kashyap, Vinay L ; Campos, Luis F ; Jones, David E ; Siemiginowska, Aneta ; Zezas, Andreas ( August 2021 , Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society)

   ABSTRACT The analysis of individual X-ray sources that appear in a crowded field can easily be compromised by the misallocation of recorded events to their originating sources. Even with a small number of sources, which none the less have overlapping point spread functions, the allocation of events to sources is a complex task that is subject to uncertainty. We develop a Bayesian method designed to sift high-energy photon events from multiple sources with overlapping point spread functions, leveraging the differences in their spatial, spectral, and temporal signatures. The method probabilistically assigns each event to a given source. Such a disentanglement allows more detailed spectral or temporal analysis to focus on the individual component in isolation, free of contamination from other sources or the background. We are also able to compute source parameters of interest like their locations, relative brightness, and background contamination, while accounting for the uncertainty in event assignments. Simulation studies that include event arrival time information demonstrate that the temporal component improves event disambiguation beyond using only spatial and spectral information. The proposed methods correctly allocate up to 65${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ more events than the corresponding algorithms that ignore event arrival time information. We apply our methods to two stellar X-ray binaries, UV Cet and HBC 515 A, observed with Chandra. We demonstrate that our methods are capable of removing the contamination due to a strong flare on UV Cet B in its companion ≈40× weaker during that event, and that evidence for spectral variability at times-scales of a few ks can be determined in HBC 515 Aa and HBC 515 Ab. 

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5. AGAPE: Anomaly Detection with Generative Adversarial Network for Improved Performance, Energy, and Security in Manycore Systems

   https://doi.org/10.23919/DATE54114.2022.9774693  

   Wang, Ke ; Zheng, Hao ; Li, Yuan ; Li, Jiajun ; Louri, Ahmed ( March 2022 , Design, Automation & Test in Europe Conference & Exhibition (DATE))

   The security of manycore systems has become increasingly critical. In system-on-chips (SoCs), Hardware Trojans (HTs) manipulate the functionalities of the routing components to saturate the on-chip network, degrade performance, and result in the leakage of sensitive data. Existing HT detection techniques, including runtime monitoring and state-of-the-art learning-based methods, are unable to timely and accurately identify the implanted HTs, due to the increasingly dynamic and complex nature of on-chip communication behaviors. We propose AGAPE, a novel Generative Adversarial Network (GAN)-based anomaly detection and mitigation method against HTs for secured on-chip communication. AGAPE learns the distribution of the multivariate time series of a number of NoC attributes captured by on-chip sensors under both HT-free and HT-infected working conditions. The proposed GAN can learn the potential latent interactions among different runtime attributes concurrently, accurately distinguish abnormal attacked situations from normal SoC behaviors, and identify the type and location of the implanted HTs. Using the detection results, we apply the most suitable protection techniques to each type of detected HTs instead of simply isolating the entire HT-infected router, with the aim to mitigate security threats as well as reducing performance loss. Simulation results show that AGAPE enhances the HT detection accuracy by 19%, reduces network latency and power consumption by 39% and 30%, respectively, as compared to state-of-the-art security designs. 

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