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1. Dynamic Modeling of Interactions between Shallow Slow-Slip Events and Subduction Earthquakes

   https://doi.org/10.1785/0220220138  

   Meng, Qingjun ; Duan, Benchun ( October 2022 , Seismological Research Letters)

   Abstract Shallow slow-slip events (SSEs) contribute to strain release near the shallow portions of subduction interfaces and may contribute to promoting shallow subduction earthquakes. Recent efforts in offshore monitoring of shallow SSEs have provided evidence of possible interactions between shallow SSEs and megathrust earthquakes. In this study, we use a dynamic earthquake simulator that captures both quasi-static (for SSEs) and dynamic (for megathrust earthquakes) slip to explore their interactions and implications for seismic and tsunami hazards. We model slip behaviors of a shallow-dipping subduction interface on which two locally locked patches (asperities) with different strengths are embedded within a conditionally stable zone. We find that both SSEs and earthquakes can occur, and they interact over multiple earthquake cycles in the model. Dynamic ruptures can nucleate on the asperities and propagate into the surrounding conditionally stable zone at slow speeds, generating tsunami earthquakes. A clear correlation emerges between the size of an earthquake and SSE activities preceding it. Small earthquakes rupture only the low-strength asperity, whereas large earthquakes rupture both. Before a large earthquake, periodic SSEs occur around the high-strength asperity, gradually loading stress into its interior. The critically stressed high-strength asperity can be ruptured together with the low-strength one in the large earthquake, followed by a relatively quiet interseismic period with very few SSEs and then a small earthquake. An SSE may or may not directly lead to nucleation of an earthquake, depending on whether a nearby asperity is ready for spontaneously dynamic failure. In addition, because of different SSE activities, the coupling degree may change dramatically between different interseismic periods, suggesting that its estimate based on a short period of observation may be biased. 

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2. Linking 3D Long‐Term Slow‐Slip Cycle Models With Rupture Dynamics: The Nucleation of the 2014 M w 7.3 Guerrero, Mexico Earthquake

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2023AV000979  

   Li, Duo ; Gabriel, Alice‐Agnes ( March 2024 , AGU Advances)

   Slow slip events (SSEs) have been observed in spatial and temporal proximity to megathrust earthquakes in various subduction zones, including the 2014M_w7.3 Guerrero, Mexico earthquake which was preceded by aM_w7.6 SSE. However, the underlying physics connecting SSEs to earthquakes remains elusive. Here, we link 3D slow‐slip cycle models with dynamic rupture simulations across the geometrically complex flat‐slab Cocos plate boundary. Our physics‐based models reproduce key regional geodetic and teleseismic fault slip observations on timescales from decades to seconds. We find that accelerating SSE fronts transiently increase shear stress at the down‐dip end of the seismogenic zone, modulated by the complex geometry beneath the Guerrero segment. The shear stresses cast by the migrating fronts of the 2014M_w7.6 SSE are significantly larger than those during the three previous episodic SSEs that occurred along the same portion of the megathrust. We show that the SSE transient stresses are large enough to nucleate earthquake dynamic rupture and affect rupture dynamics. However, additional frictional asperities in the seismogenic part of the megathrust are required to explain the observed complexities in the coseismic energy release and static surface displacements of the Guerrero earthquake. We conclude that it is crucial to jointly analyze the long‐ and short‐term interactions and complexities of SSEs and megathrust earthquakes across several (a)seismic cycles accounting for megathrust geometry. Our study has important implications for identifying earthquake precursors and understanding the link between transient and sudden megathrust faulting processes.

    

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3. Anatomy of strike-slip fault tsunami genesis

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2025632118  

   Elbanna, Ahmed ; Abdelmeguid, Mohamed ; Ma, Xiao ; Amlani, Faisal ; Bhat, Harsha S. ; Synolakis, Costas ; Rosakis, Ares J. ( May 2021 , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   Tsunami generation from earthquake-induced seafloor deformations has long been recognized as a major hazard to coastal areas. Strike-slip faulting has generally been considered insufficient for triggering large tsunamis, except through the generation of submarine landslides. Herein, we demonstrate that ground motions due to strike-slip earthquakes can contribute to the generation of large tsunamis (>1 m), under rather generic conditions. To this end, we developed a computational framework that integrates models for earthquake rupture dynamics with models of tsunami generation and propagation. The three-dimensional time-dependent vertical and horizontal ground motions from spontaneous dynamic rupture models are used to drive boundary motions in the tsunami model. Our results suggest that supershear ruptures propagating along strike-slip faults, traversing narrow and shallow bays, are prime candidates for tsunami generation. We show that dynamic focusing and the large horizontal displacements, characteristic of strike-slip earthquakes on long faults, are critical drivers for the tsunami hazard. These findings point to intrinsic mechanisms for sizable tsunami generation by strike-slip faulting, which do not require complex seismic sources, landslides, or complicated bathymetry. Furthermore, our model identifies three distinct phases in the tsunamic motion, an instantaneous dynamic phase, a lagging coseismic phase, and a postseismic phase, each of which may affect coastal areas differently. We conclude that near-source tsunami hazards and risk from strike-slip faulting need to be re-evaluated.

    

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4. Updated concepts of seismic gaps and asperities to assess great earthquake hazard along South America

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2216843119  

   Lay, Thorne ; Nishenko, Stuart P. ( December 2022 , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   So far in this century, six very large–magnitude earthquakes ( M W ≥ 7.8) have ruptured separate portions of the subduction zone plate boundary of western South America along Ecuador, Peru, and Chile. Each source region had last experienced a very large earthquake from 74 to 261 y earlier. This history led to their designation in advance as seismic gaps with potential to host future large earthquakes. Deployments of geodetic and seismic monitoring instruments in several of the seismic gaps enhanced resolution of the subsequent faulting processes, revealing preevent patterns of geodetic slip deficit accumulation and heterogeneous coseismic slip on the megathrust fault. Localized regions of large slip, or asperities, appear to have influenced variability in how each source region ruptured relative to prior events, as repeated ruptures have had similar, but not identical slip distributions. We consider updated perspectives of seismic gaps, asperities, and geodetic locking to assess current very large earthquake hazard along the South American subduction zone, noting regions of particular concern in northern Ecuador and Colombia (1958/1906 rupture zone), southeastern Peru (southeasternmost 1868 rupture zone), north Chile (1877 rupture zone), and north-central Chile (1922 rupture zone) that have large geodetic slip deficit measurements and long intervals (from 64 to 154 y) since prior large events have struck those regions. Expanded geophysical measurements onshore and offshore in these seismic gaps may provide critical information about the strain cycle and fault stress buildup late in the seismic cycle in advance of the future great earthquakes that will eventually strike each region. 

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5. Remote Triggering of Icequakes at Mt. Erebus, Antarctica by Large Teleseismic Earthquakes

   https://doi.org/10.1785/0220210027  

   Li, Chenyu ; Peng, Zhigang ; Chaput, Julien A. ; Walter, Jacob I. ; Aster, Richard C. ( May 2021 , Seismological Research Letters)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract Recent studies have shown that the Antarctic cryosphere is sensitive to external disturbances such as tidal stresses or dynamic stresses from remote large earthquakes. In this study, we systematically examine evidence of remotely triggered microseismicity around Mount (Mt.) Erebus, an active high elevation stratovolcano located on Ross Island, Antarctica. We detect microearthquakes recorded by multiple stations from the Mt. Erebus Volcano Observatory Seismic Network one day before and after 43 large teleseismic earthquakes, and find that seven large earthquakes (including the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile, and 2012 Mw 8.6 Indian Ocean events) triggered local seismicity on the volcano, with most triggered events occurring during the passage of the shorter-period Rayleigh waves. In addition, their waveforms and locations for the triggered events are different when comparing with seismic events arising from the persistent small-scale eruptions, but similar to other detected events before and after the mainshocks. Based on the waveform characteristics and their locations, we infer that these triggered events are likely shallow icequakes triggered by dilatational stress perturbations from teleseismic surface waves. We show that teleseismic earthquakes with higher peak dynamic stress changes are more capable of triggering icequakes at Mt. Erebus. We also find that the icequakes in this study are more likely to be triggered during the austral summer months. Our study motivates the continued monitoring of Mount Erebus with dense seismic instrumentation to better understand interactions between dynamic seismic triggering, crospheric processes, and volcanic activity. 

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