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Title: Arctic open-water periods are projected to lengthen dramatically by 2100
Abstract The shrinking of Arctic-wide September sea ice extent is often cited as an indicator of modern climate change; however, the timing of seasonal sea ice retreat/advance and the length of the open-water period are often more relevant to stakeholders working at regional and local scales. Here we highlight changes in regional open-water periods at multiple warming thresholds. We show that, in the latest generation of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the open-water period lengthens by 63 days on average with 2 °C of global warming above the 1850-1900 average, and by over 90 days in several Arctic seas. Nearly the entire Arctic, including the Transpolar Sea Route, has at least 3 months of open water per year with 3.5 °C warming, and at least 6 months with 5 °C warming. Model bias compared to satellite data suggests that even such dramatic projections may be conservative.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1847398
PAR ID:
10234889
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Communications Earth & Environment
Volume:
2
Issue:
1
ISSN:
2662-4435
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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