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Abstract Flux-rope-based magnetohydrodynamic modeling of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a promising tool for prediction of the CME arrival time and magnetic field at Earth. In this work, we introduce a constant-turn flux rope model and use it to simulate the 2012 July 12 16:48 CME in the inner heliosphere. We constrain the initial parameters of this CME using the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) model and the reconnected flux in post-eruption arcades. We correctly reproduce all the magnetic field components of the CME at Earth, with an arrival time error of approximately 1 hr. We further estimate the average subjective uncertainties in the GCS fittings by comparing the GCS parameters of 56 CMEs reported in multiple studies and catalogs. We determined that the GCS estimates of the CME latitude, longitude, tilt, and speed have average uncertainties of 5.°74, 11.°23, 24.°71, and 11.4%, respectively. Using these, we have created 77 ensemble members for the 2012 July 12 CME. We found that 55% of our ensemble members correctly reproduce the sign of the magnetic field components at Earth. We also determined that the uncertainties in GCS fitting can widen the CME arrival time prediction window to about 12 hr for the 2012 July 12 CME. On investigating the forecast accuracy introduced by the uncertainties in individual GCS parameters, we conclude that the half-angle and aspect ratio have little impact on the predicted magnetic field of the 2012 July 12 CME, whereas the uncertainties in longitude and tilt can introduce relatively large spread in the magnetic field predicted at Earth.
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Subjective Uncertainties in 3-D Coronal Mass Ejection Fittings and their Consequences for Space Weather Prediction
Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) model is a widely used tool to determine direction, kinematic and orientation properties of Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) using multi-viewpoint observations from SOHO and STEREO A&B coronagraphs. In this study, we estimate the subjective uncertainties typically seen while deriving these CME properties by comparing the GCS model results reported in multiple studies and catalogs for 56 CMEs. We find that the GCS estimates of latitude, longitude, and tilt show an average uncertainty of 5.7, 11.2, and 24.7 degrees with standard deviation of 5.5, 12.7, and 19.7 degrees respectively. We found that the uncertainties in estimated latitudes are correlated with uncertainties in estimated longitude, tilt, and speed, showing that some CMEs are inherently difficult to fit than others. We then introduced these uncertainty values in our 3-D magnetohydrodynamic flux rope based modified spheromak CME model to figure out their consequences for space weather prediction. We find that much better CME observations are required to reliably predict magnetic field of CMEs at 1 AU using flux rope based models, since the uncertainties in estimated GCS values can result in large differences in 1 AU signatures, especially for CMEs launched away from the Sun-Earth line.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2028154
- PAR ID:
- 10275897
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2020, abstract #SH028-0019
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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