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Abstract A fundamental property of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is their radial expansion, which determines the increase in the CME radial size and the decrease in the CME magnetic field strength as the CME propagates. CME radial expansion can be investigated either by using remote observations or by in situ measurements based on multiple spacecraft in radial conjunction. However, there have been only few case studies combining both remote and in situ observations. It is therefore unknown if the radial expansion in the corona estimated remotely is consistent with that estimated locally in the heliosphere. To address this question, we first select 22 CME events between the years 2010 and 2013, which were well observed by coronagraphs and by two or three spacecraft in radial conjunction. We use the graduated cylindrical shell model to estimate the radial size, radial expansion speed, and a measure of the dimensionless expansion parameter of CMEs in the corona. The same parameters and two additional measures of the radial-size increase and magnetic-field-strength decrease with heliocentric distance of CMEs based on in situ measurements are also calculated. For most of the events, the CME radial size estimated by remote observations is inconsistent with the in situ estimates. We further statistically analyze the correlations of these expansion parameters estimated using remote and in situ observations, and discuss the potential reasons for the inconsistencies and their implications for the CME space weather forecasting.
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A coronal mass ejection encountered by four spacecraft within 1 au from the Sun: ensemble modelling of propagation and magnetic structure
ABSTRACT Understanding and predicting the structure and evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the heliosphere remains one of the most sought-after goals in heliophysics and space weather research. A powerful tool for improving current knowledge and capabilities consists of multispacecraft observations of the same event, which take place when two or more spacecraft fortuitously find themselves in the path of a single CME. Multiprobe events can not only supply useful data to evaluate the large-scale of CMEs from 1D in situ trajectories, but also provide additional constraints and validation opportunities for CME propagation models. In this work, we analyse and simulate the coronal and heliospheric evolution of a slow, streamer-blowout CME that erupted on 2021 September 23 and was encountered in situ by four spacecraft approximately equally distributed in heliocentric distance between 0.4 and 1 au. We employ the Open Solar Physics Rapid Ensemble Information modelling suite in ensemble mode to predict the CME arrival and structure in a hindcast fashion and to compute the ‘best-fitting’ solutions at the different spacecraft individually and together. We find that the spread in the predicted quantities increases with heliocentric distance, suggesting that there may be a maximum (angular and radial) separation between an inner and an outer probe beyond which estimates of the in situ magnetic field orientation (parametrized by flux rope model geometry) increasingly diverge. We discuss the importance of these exceptional observations and the results of our investigation in the context of advancing our understanding of CME structure and evolution as well as improving space weather forecasts.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2147399
- PAR ID:
- 10559430
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oxford University Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
- Volume:
- 536
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 0035-8711
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 203-222
- Size(s):
- p. 203-222
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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