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Heating buildings using fossil fuels such as natural gas, propane and oil makes up a significant proportion of the aggregate carbon emissions every year. Because of this, there is a strong interest in decarbonizing residential heating systems using new technologies such as electric heat pumps. In this paper, we conduct a data-driven optimization study to analyze the potential of replacing gas heating with electric heat pumps to reduce CO 2 emission in a city-wide distribution grid. We conduct an in-depth analysis of gas consumption in the city and the resulting carbon emissions. We then present a flexible multi-objective optimization (MOO) framework that optimizes carbon emission reduction while also maximizing other aspects of the energy transition such as carbon-efficiency, and minimizing energy inefficiency in buildings. Our results show that replacing gas with electric heat pumps has the potential to cut carbon emissions by up to 81%. We also show that optimizing for other aspects such as carbon-efficiency and energy inefficiency introduces tradeoffs with carbon emission reduction that must be considered during transition. Finally, we present a detailed analysis of the implication of proposed transition strategies on the household energy consumption and utility bills, electric grid upgrades, and decarbonization policies. We compute the additional energy demand from electric heat pumps at the household as well as the transformer level and discuss how our results can inform decarbonization policies at city scale.
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WattScale: A Data-driven Approach for Energy Efficiency Analytics of Buildings at Scale
Buildings consume over 40% of the total energy in modern societies, and improving their energy efficiency can significantly reduce our energy footprint. In this article, we present WattScale, a data-driven approach to identify the least energy-efficient buildings from a large population of buildings in a city or a region. Unlike previous methods such as least-squares that use point estimates, WattScale uses Bayesian inference to capture the stochasticity in the daily energy usage by estimating the distribution of parameters that affect a building. Further, it compares them with similar homes in a given population. WattScale also incorporates a fault detection algorithm to identify the underlying causes of energy inefficiency. We validate our approach using ground truth data from different geographical locations, which showcases its applicability in various settings. WattScale has two execution modes—(i) individual and (ii) region-based, which we highlight using two case studies. For the individual execution mode, we present results from a city containing >10,000 buildings and show that more than half of the buildings are inefficient in one way or another indicating a significant potential from energy improvement measures. Additionally, we provide probable cause of inefficiency and find that 41%, 23.73%, and 0.51% homes have poor building envelope, heating, and cooling system faults, respectively. For the region-based execution mode, we show that WattScale can be extended to millions of homes in the U.S. due to the recent availability of representative energy datasets.
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- PAR ID:
- 10289974
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- ACM/IMS Transactions on Data Science
- Volume:
- 2
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2691-1922
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1 to 25
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1145/3406961
